Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, June 25, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: PHI is 37-8 (+22.11 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-174 at WSH)
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 304-313 run (+13.54 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+113 at SF)
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have gone 132-85 for +30.88 units, an ROI of +14.2%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-114 vs HOU)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 133-105 for -2.49 units and an ROI of -1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-109 vs CHC), DETROIT (-114 vs HOU)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 160-199 for -21.27 units. This ROI of -5.9% is still highly advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY METS (-109 vs CHC), ARIZONA (+113 at STL), ATHLETICS (+113 at SF)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 132-85 for +30.88 units, an ROI of +14.2%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-114 vs HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 100-125 start for -20.23 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 41-58 for -17.28 units and an ROI of -17.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs ATH), HOUSTON (-105 at DET)
3-games – CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at NYM)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 446-469 but for +28.97 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+113 at SF), NY METS (-109 vs CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 747-978 but for +24.52 units and an ROI of 1.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+119 at TB), ATHLETICS (+113 at SF), ARIZONA (+113 at STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,120-2,007 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -271.41 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+119 vs SEA), ARIZONA (+113 at STL), CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at NYM)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2149-2724 (44.1%) for -270.79 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-144 at PIT), TEXAS (+129 at TOR), ATHLETICS (+113 at SF)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 385-193 (66.6%) for +54.53 units and an ROI of 9.4%!
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR NY METS vs CHC (-109 CURRENTLY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 304-313 run (+13.54 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+113 at SF)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: DETROIT -114 (+23 diff), SEATTLE -144 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: NYY-BOS OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: HOU-DET UNDER 9 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (44-36) at (952) WASHINGTON (41-40)
Trend: PHI is 37-8 (+22.11 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-174 at WSH)
Trend: Over the total is 29-12-1 (+15.80 units) in WSH night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 8.5)
(953) CHICAGO-NL (43-37) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (34-46)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 16-8 (+5.68 units) when he starts vs CHC or CWS in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-109 vs CHC)
(955) ARIZONA (41-39) at (956) ST LOUIS (42-36)
Trend: STL is 28-18 (+12.35 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-136 vs AZ)
(957) KANSAS CITY (34-47) at (958) TAMPA BAY (44-33)
Trend: Seth Lugo’s teams are 11-17 (-6.51 units) when he starts on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+119 at TB)
(961) TEXAS (38-42) at (962) TORONTO (39-41)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 19-25 (-21.29 units) when he starts at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in L6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-156 vs TEX)
(963) NEW YORK-AL (48-31) at (964) BOSTON (32-46)
Trend: NYY is 3-0 vs Boston with starter Cam Schlittler in his career (0.83 ERA in these three games)
Trend: BOS is 0-2 vs NYY with starter Connelly Early in his career (6.00 ERA in these two games)
Trends Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-151 at BOS)
(967) ATHLETICS (38-42) at (968) SAN FRANCISCO (33-46)
Trend: Under the total is 24-14-1 (+8.60 units) in ATH road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-SF (o/u at 8)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-114 vs HOU)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+119 vs SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs ATH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs ATH), DETROIT (-114 vs HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, June 29)
