Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, June 17, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 644-531 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.71 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-172 vs LAA), SEATTLE (-131 vs BAL)
Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 164-162 (-63.43 units, ROI: -19.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-136 vs KC)
Trend: Carlos Rodon’s teams have not been good when he starts in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 6-11 (-15.19 units) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-186 vs CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 123-97 for -3.77 units and an ROI of -1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-136 at CIN), DETROIT (-112 at HOU), BOSTON (-131 vs TOR)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 22-21 for –4.89 units (ROI -11.4%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (-125 at ATH)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 38-68 for -35.71 units and an ROI of -33.7%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-124 vs MIA), SAN DIEGO (+109 at STL), ATLANTA (-148 vs SF), MILWAUKEE (-126 vs CLE)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 81-97 for +9.66 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-131 vs SD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 33-16 for -3.25 units.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-193 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 19-12 start for -7.73 units, and an ROI of -24.9%.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-193 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 142-176 for -18.17 units. This ROI of -5.7% is still highly advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+109 at STL), KANSAS CITY (+113 at WSH), ATHLETICS (+104 vs PIT)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 123-74 for +34.98 units, an ROI of +17.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-124 vs MIA), DETROIT (-112 at HOU), MILWAUKEE (-126 vs CLE)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 91-109 start for -11.60 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 39-51 for -10.81 units and an ROI of -12%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (+113 vs NYM), ST LOUIS (-131 vs SD)
3+ games – WASHINGTON (-136 vs KC)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 72-80 for +2.51 units.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+109 at SEA)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 384-434 but for +85.44 units and an ROI of 10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+113 at WSH), TAMPA BAY (+139 at LAD), COLORADO (+158 at CHC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 458-437 (51.2%) for +21.69 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-172 vs LAA)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2102-1995 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -274.91 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-186 vs CWS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2132-2703 (44.1%) for -266.69 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, CLEVELAND, SAN DIEGO, DETROIT, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 644-531 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.71 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-172 vs LAA), SEATTLE (-131 vs BAL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 380-192 (66.4%) for +51.15 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-186 vs CWS)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 225-258 SU but for +47.95 units (ROI: 9.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR KANSAS CITY at WSH (+113 CURRENTLY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 164-162 (-63.43 units, ROI: -19.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-136 vs KC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: HOUSTON -108 (+20 diff), ATHLETICS +104 (+18)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LA DODGERS -168 (+31 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -193 (+21), SEATTLE -131 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: TB-LAD OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIA-PHI UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), KC-WSH UNDER 10.5 (-0.6), NYM-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.5), SD-STL UNDER 10.5 (-0.5), TOR-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), CWS-NYY UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (32-41) at (952) CINCINNATI (35-37)
Trend: CIN is 18-21 (-9.57 units) vs teams with a losing record with starter Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+113 vs NYM)
(953) MIAMI (36-38) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (40-33)
Trend: Under the total is 15-5-2 (+9.50 units) when Miami faces PHI with starter Sandy Alcantara in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-PHI (o/u at 9)
(957) SAN FRANCISCO (30-43) at (958) ATLANTA (46-26)
Trend: Under the total is 20-11-2 (+7.90 units) in ATL home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-ATL (o/u at 9)
(959) COLORADO (28-46) at (960) CHICAGO-NL (38-36)
Trend: CHC is 19-37 (-15.32 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs COL)
(961) DETROIT (30-43) at (962) HOUSTON (34-41)
Trend: DET is 12-27 (-17.61 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-112 at HOU)
Trend: DET is 18-10 (+7.23 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-112 at HOU)
(963) TORONTO (35-38) at (964) BOSTON (29-41)
Trend: Over the total is 10-3-2 (+6.70 units) when Max Scherzer faces Boston in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-BOS (o/u at 9.5)
(965) CHICAGO-AL (38-33) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (44-27)
Trend: Carlos Rodon’s teams have not been good when he starts in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 6-11 (-15.19 units) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-186 vs CWS)
(967) BALTIMORE (34-40) at (968) SEATTLE (38-36)
Trend: SEA has a 2-7 record vs BAL with starter George Kirby in his career
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-131 vs BAL)
(969) KANSAS CITY (29-45) at (970) WASHINGTON (39-35)
Trend: Over the total is 25-9-3 (+15.10 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-WSH (o/u at 10.5)
(973) LOS ANGELES-AL (30-44) at (974) ARIZONA (37-36)
Trend: Under the total is 18-10-3 (+7.00 units) in AZ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-AZ (o/u at 9)
(975) CLEVELAND (39-34) at (976) MILWAUKEE (44-26)
Trend: CLE is 21-9 (+8.01 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at MIL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Mon 6/15-Wed 6/17
Trend: Home teams are 24-11 (68.6%, +9.46 units) in the last 35 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 27%
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-131 vs SD)
Series #30: Toronto at Boston, Tue 6/16-Thu 6/18
Trend: Underdogs are on a 28-16 (63.6%, +19.54 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
– The ROI on this trend is 44.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+108 at BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA, CLEVELAND, PITTSBURGH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-WSH
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, June 22)
