MLB Best Bets Today June 17
A lot of the Wednesday games will be played during the day, as it’s getaway day around the league. We also have the completion of a suspended game in Atlanta to make for a very long day for the Giants and Braves. As usual, I’m trying to give some lead time with my thoughts, so my focus is on the late games exclusively.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 17:
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction
Pick: Blue Jays +108
Will this be the final Major League start for Max Scherzer? Shane Bieber is just about ready to return and Ryan Weiss, whose results are bad, but stuff profile looks good, may simply be a better option. Scherzer got his 3,500th career strikeout last time out in what was his first start since April 24. He’s only had two good efforts out of his six starts and I don’t know that we’ll get one here, but there’s some equity on this price for Toronto.
Scherzer faced the Phillies and gave up five runs on five hits in 3.1 innings of work, but did have a season-high 13.4% SwStr% and induced a good amount of chases. The stuff wasn’t as bad as the line would suggest, so there’s some hope that he has something left in there.
Ultimately, the Blue Jays are capable of hitting Jake Bennett and their primary relievers are pretty solid, so this is a game where I think they are very live despite Scherzer’s presence. Bennett has made three starts with nine runs allowed on 18 hits. He has a 55.1% GB% and has only allowed one homer, but he’s also only struck out eight of the 65 batters that he has faced.
Bennett allowed one run in his first start against Houston and has allowed four runs in each start since, including his return to the bigs last time out against the Rays.
Toronto has struck out a lot lately against lefties, but Bennett isn’t a big strikeout guy and I’ll take my chances with them putting a lot of balls in play.
White Sox vs. Yankees Prediction
Pick: Anthony Kay (CWS) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-119)
Two southpaw starters are listed for this one, with Anthony Kay for the White Sox and Carlos Rodon for the Yankees. I’ve been really intrigued with Kay recently. A 4.34 ERA with a 5.66 xERA and a 5.22 FIP shouldn’t make for that fascinating of a profile, but his stuff is definitely better than his results. Also, Kay has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts dating back to the start of May.
I was shocked to see such strong pitch modeling numbers for him, as he has a 104 Stuff+, 101 Location+, and a 106 Pitching+. There are 115 pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched. Kay ranks in the top 30 in Stuff+ and top 40 in Location+. There’s a lot to work with here. Despite above average fastball velo, Kay’s worst pitch is clearly his four-seam fastball.
As you can see, though, Kay is throwing his fastball less, opting for more sliders and sweepers, which are bigger swing-and-miss pitches. I like these arsenal adjustments. While maybe they haven’t shown up in terms of runs, I do think he’ll continue to generate more Whiffs as we move forward.
