Today a new week begins with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose form. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-130, 8.5)
The Rays (53-53) just got swept by the Reds, losing yesterday’s series finale 2-1 as a -110 road pick’em. Meanwhile, the Yankees (57-48) dropped two of three against the Phillies but avoided the sweep with a 4-3 win yesterday, coming through as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rays hand the ball to righty Drew Rasmussen (7-5, 2.93 ERA) and the Yankees turn to fellow righty Cam Schlitter (1-0, 4.35 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -115 home favorite and Tampa Bay a -105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Bronx Bombers laying short chalk at home, steaming the Yankees up from -115 to -130.
At DraftKings, New York is receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. This indicates modest public support but also respected smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollar” wiseguy bet split.
Monday home teams with line movement in their favor are 54-29 (65%) with an 11% ROI this season. Short home favorites -140 or less with a line move in their favor are 62-31 (67%) with a 19% ROI.
New York has the more explosive offense, hitting 168 homers and scoring 543 runs compared to Tampa Bay hitting 115 homers and scoring 488 runs.
Rasmussen has a 3.30 ERA on the road and 3.25 ERA at night compared to a 2.76 ERA at home and 2.48 ERA in the day. Meanwhile, Schlitter will be making his 3rd career start and will face the Rays for the 1st time.
The Yankees are 31-21 at home. The Rays are 22-25 on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins (-110, 9.5)
The Red Sox (57-50) just took two of three against the Dodgers, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as -105 home dogs. On the other hand, the Twins (50-55) just dropped two of three against the Nationals, losing 7-2 yesterday as -175 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Red Sox send out righty Richard Fitts (1-4, 4.86 ERA) and the Twins go with fellow righty Simeon Woods-Richardson (5-4, 4.14 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -125 home favorite and Boston a +105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Red Sox, dropping the Twins down from -125 to -110 and moving Boston from +105 to -110. Essentially, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to pick’em” line movement in favor of the Red Sox.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 62% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Boston is taking in 50% of moneyline bets but a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the road team.
The Red Sox have the better bats, hitting .251 with 130 homers and 520 runs scored compared to the Twins hitting .241 with 121 homers and 440 runs scored. Boston is hitting .248 against righties (15th) compared to .243 for Minnesota (22nd).
Fitts has been better on the road, posting a 3.80 ERA as a visitor compared to a 6.32 at home. Meanwhile, Woods-Richardson has a 5.20 ERA at night compared to 3.18 in the day.
Boston has pitched far better than Minnesota as of late, posting a 3.34 team ERA over their last ten games compared to a 5.22 ERA for the Twins.
The Red Sox also have the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.30 (4th best in MLB) compared to 4.33 for the Twins (8th worst).
9:45 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants (-130, 8)
The Pirates (44-62) just took two of three against the Diamondbacks, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-0 as -150 home favorites. On the flip side, the Giants (54-52) just got swept by the Mets, losing 5-3 yesterday as +110 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates tap righty Mitch Keller (4-10, 3.53 ERA) and the Giants start lefty Carson Whisenhunt, who is making his MLB debut. Whisenhunt was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and he is the top pitching prospect in the Giants system. He has gone 8-5 with a 4.42 ERA for AAA Sacramento this season.
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -120 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +100 road dog.
Sharps are riding the rookie in his MLB debut, steaming the Giants up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, San Francisco is taking in 66% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars, indicating both public and sharp support.
Monday home favorites with a line move in their direction are 41-21 (66%) with a 6% ROI this season.
The Giants have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win. San Francisco also has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the team who is expected to win.
San Francisco has the better bats, hitting 100 homers and scoring 436 runs compared to the Pirates hitting 69 homers and scoring 358 runs.
The Giants also have an edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.23 (2nd best in MLB) compared to 3.81 for the Pirates.
Pittsburgh is only hitting .217 against lefties this season, 2nd worst in MLB.
The Giants are 28-23 at home. The Pirates are 13-37 on the road, the 2nd worst road record in MLB trailing only the Rockies (13-40).
