Today we start a new week and kick off the month of June with a 9 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-145, 8)
The Marlins (26-34) just got swept by the Mets, losing yesterday’s series finale 10-1 as +130 road dogs. On the other hand, the Nationals (31-29) just took two of three against the Padres, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-2 as a -105 home dog.
In tonight’s series opener, the Marlins hand the ball to righty Sandy Alcantara (3-4, 4.66 ERA) and the Nationals counter with fellow righty Cade Cavalli (3-3, 3.62 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -135 home favorite and Miami a +115 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Nationals at home, driving Washington up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, Washington is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Monday home teams with line movement in their favor who missed the postseason the previous year facing an opponent who also missed the postseason the previous year, like the Nationals here, are 56-34 (62%) with a 9% ROI since 2024.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less are 61-35 (64%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Washington offers additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Nationals have the better offense, hitting .246 with 324 runs scored compared to the Marlins hitting .242 with only 250 runs scored.
Alcantara posted a 7.39 ERA in five May starts, allowing 23 earned runs in 28 innings pitched. He has also posted a 6.07 ERA on the road compared to 3.74 at home.
Miami is 8-19 on the road, the 3rd worst road record in MLB.
7:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers (-150, 7.5)
The Giants (23-36) just dropped two of three against the Rockies but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 19-6 yesterday as -115 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Brewers (35-21) just took two of three against the Astros, winning yesterday’s series finale 2-0 as -200 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Giants send out righty Landen Roupp (5-5, 3.30 ERA) and the Brewers turn to lefty Shane Drohan (2-1, 2.63 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -135 home favorite and San Francisco a +115 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Brewers laying relatively modest chalk at home, pushing Milwaukee up from -135 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are taking in over 75% of moneyline bets and dollars. At Circa, Milwaukee is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record who made the playoffs the previous year, like the Brewers here, are 60-33 (65%) with a 5% ROI this season. Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less are 61-35 (64%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Milwaukee offers additional betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Brewers are 24-12 (67%) with a 13% ROI as a favorite, the 3rd best chalk team in MLB.
Drohan has posted a 1.89 ERA at home compared to 4.32 on the road. Meanwhile, the Giants are 0-5 in Roupp’s last five starts.
The Brewers are 19-11 at home. The Giants are 11-20 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dodgers (38-21) just won two of three against the Phillies, dominating yesterday’s series finale 9-1 as -250 home favorites. Conversely, the Diamondbacks (31-27) just got swept by the Mariners, losing yesterday’s series finale 3-2 in extra innings as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Dodgers start righty Emmet Sheehan (3-1, 4.70 ERA) and the Diamondbacks rebuttal with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (5-1, 2.31 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -145 road favorite and Arizona a +125 home dog.
Wiseguys have pounced on the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -145 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are taking in 81% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is receiving 69% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites priced -150 or more coming off a win, like the Dodgers here, are 26-13 (67%) with a 4% ROI this season.
When priced as a favorite of -175 or less, the Dodgers have gone 187-106 (64%) with a 9% ROI since 2022. When priced -175 or less with a line move in their favor, the Dodgers improve to 79-41 (66%) with an 11% ROI since 2022.
Los Angeles has the better bats, hitting .263 with a .345 OBP, .447 slug and 315 runs scored compared to Arizona hitting .245 with a .310 OBP, .394 slug and 264 runs scored.
The Dodgers are hitting .259 against lefties (4th) while the Diamondbacks are hitting .231 against righties (24th).
The Dodgers are 4-0 in Sheehan’s last four starts.
