Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees (-155, 8)
The Yankees (12-9) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 4-2 as -180 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 13-4 as -170 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Royals (7-14) start lefty Cole Ragans (0-3, 3.78 ERA) and the Yankees turn to fellow southpaw Ryan Weathers (0-2, 4.29 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -140 home favorite and Kansas City a +120 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Bronx Bombers, pushing the Yankees up from -140 to -155.
At Circa, New York is receiving 61% of moneyline bets and a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
The Yankees have betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (8), with lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Sunday home favorites off a win facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Yankees here, are 78-36 (68%) with a 10% ROI since 2025.
The Yankees have the more productive bats, posting 103 runs scored with a .319 OBP compared to the Royals posting only 71 runs scored and a .298 OBP.
The Royals are 0-4 in Ragans’ four starts this season. He has a 5.91 ERA on the road compared to 0.00 at home.
New York is 7-5 at home this season. Kansas City is 2-9 on the road.
2:20 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Chicago Cubs (-130, 8)
The Cubs (11-9) have won the first two games of this three-game set, taking the opener 12-4 as -155 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-2 as -120 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Mets (7-14) were originally slated to start lefty David Peterson (0-3, 6.41 ERA) but reversed course and decided to go with righty Tobias Myers (0-1, 3.46 ERA) instead. On the other side, the Cubs will send out righty Javier Assad (1-1, 8.10 ERA).
This line originally opened with Chicago listed as a -115 home favorite and New York a -105 road dog.
Once the Mets pitching change was announced, we saw a flood of respected action hit the Cubs, moving Chicago up from -115 to -130.
At Circa, over 90% of of spread bets and dollars have taken Chicago to win by two or more on the run-line (-1.5 at +155).
Sunday home favorites off a win facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 78-36 (68%) with a 10% ROI since 2025. Non-division home favorites off a win priced -150 or less with a line move in their favor are 117-78 (60%) with a 7% ROI since 2025.
Chicago has additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cubs have the superior offense, hitting .252 with 110 runs scored and a .343 OBP compared to the Mets hitting .228 with 71 runs scored and a .293 OBP.
Chicago is 6-5 at home. New York is 4-8 on the road.
4:05 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Athletics (-155, 9.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The White Sox (7-14) took the opener 9-2, easily cashing as +135 road dogs. Then the Athletics (11-10) bounced back with a 7-6 win in extra innings yesterday, coming through as -170 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the White Sox trot out lefty Noah Schultz (0-1, 6.23 ERA) and the Athletics counter with fellow southpaw Jeffrey Springs (3-0, 1.46 ERA).
This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -145 home favorite and Chicago a +125 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the A’s to take care of business and win the series, driving the Athletics up from -145 to -155.
At DraftKings, the A’s are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the A’s are taking in 90% of moneyline bets and a hefty 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
We’ve also seen a flood of sharp action back the A’s run-line (-1.5 at +130), as the Athletics are receiving 66% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Sunday home favorites off a win facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 78-36 (68%) with a 10% ROI since 2025. If the home favorite also missed the postseason, like the A’s here, they improve to 46-15 (75%) with a 24% ROI since 2025.
The Athletics have the better bats, hitting .232 with 87 runs scored compared to the White Sox hitting .206 with 75 runs scored.
The A’s are 3-0 in Springs’ last three starts. He has posted a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched. He is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, Schultz is making just his 2nd career start after allowing 3 earned runs in 4.1 innings pitched in an 8-5 loss against the Rays in his MLB debut.
