Sunday Night Baseball: Braves vs. Phillies
It took four Sundays, but we finally have our first division rivalry game on Sunday Night Baseball, as the Braves and Phillies wrap up their weekend set. Unlike last week when the game was also on NBC, tonight’s Braves vs. Phillies game is only on Peacock, which will deprive a national audience from seeing Andrew Painter, Philly’s now-healthy 13th overall pick in 2021. Atlanta will counter with a former first-rounder of their own in 2014 pick Grant Holmes.
It’s been a rough series thus far for the Phillies, who have only scored one run in 18 innings and have now lost four in a row. Meanwhile, the Braves already entered play today with a five-game lead in the division and will look to complete their first sweep of the campaign.
See how others are wagering on the game with our VSiN MLB Betting Splits.
See player prop projections for Braves vs. Phillies from OptaAI.
How to Watch Braves vs. Phillies
Where: Peacock
When: Sunday April 19, 7:20 p.m. ET
Braves vs. Phillies MLB Odds
Philadelphia Phillies -118 // Atlanta Braves -102
Total: 8 (-113/-107)
Braves vs. Phillies Game Preview
Despite the offensive outage in this series, the Phillies are favored to salvage a silver lining out of this NL East set. A lot of that has to do with how Painter has looked thus far. The Calvary Christian Academy product out of Florida made his MLB debut earlier this season. He missed the 2023 and 2024 seasons due to injury, but managed to throw 118 innings in the minors last season. He only posted a 5.26 ERA with a 4.81 FIP, so his start at the MLB level has come as a little bit of a surprise.
Painter has allowed six runs on 16 hits with a 16/3 K/BB ratio over 14.1 innings and 61 batters faced. He gave up four runs on nine hits to the punchless Giants in his only road start, but has allowed just two runs on seven hits with 15 strikeouts over 10.1 innings in the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park. He didn’t start last time out, as the Phillies opted to use Zach Pop for the first two innings before Painter entered the game trailing 1-0 in the third. He’ll get a conventional start here.
The pitching staff has been great for Atlanta, but the real catalyst for their hot start has been the offense. The Braves are raking at a .278/.344/.454 clip with a .356 wOBA and a 123 wRC+. They only trail the Dodgers and Astros in wRC+ and just the Dodgers in wOBA and SLG. Heading into Sunday’s action, Painter’s previous assignments rank sixth, 24th, and 21st in wRC+, so this is a pretty big step up in class for him. His .381 BABIP and 68.4% LOB% actually suggest some positive regression, as well as his 3.77 ERA with a 2.19 xERA and a 1.52 FIP with no homers allowed yet.
Negative regression is the story with Holmes, who pitched through some UCL damage last season and is simply trying to do what he can to stay in the rotation while the Braves battle numerous injuries. He’s made four starts covering 21.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA, 3.15 xERA, and a 4.14 FIP. Holmes ran a 25% K% last season, but he’s down to 19.3% this season, which makes his 11.4% BB% that much more concerning. Opposing batters are only hitting .179 with a .203 BABIP, but he has done a tremendous job of limiting hard contact. Still, those are unsustainable figures.
Holmes hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start yet, which is just fine given how well Atlanta’s offense has been swinging the sticks thus far. He had his worst start of the season last time out against the Marlins with three runs allowed on three hits in just four innings of work. He only threw 59 pitches before getting the hook. Based on his spin rate and velocity data from that start, it doesn’t seem like there’s an underlying injury concern outside of what we already know exists.
A big reason why the Phillies are off to a slow start is because of their offense. They are only batting .224/.303/.369 as a team with a .306 wOBA. They’ve hit 21 homers, but haven’t drawn many walks relative to league average and their .269 BABIP ranks just outside the bottom five. This is a very talented offense likely to get it going soon, but it’s been a rough start thus far. Obviously the weather is a factor in cities like Philadelphia early in the season and it might be a lackluster night for offense again with temps dropping into the 40s during the game and a little bit of a breeze in from left.
Braves vs. Phillies Prediction
The Phillies really need a lift, but that’s a lot to put on Painter against this lineup. They’ve scored just seven runs over the last four games and have allowed 33, so it’s going about as bad as it possibly could. Perhaps they do hold serve as a favorite here, but this is a step up in class for Painter, especially when you consider the best offense he’s faced to this point is Washington and the hitters in that lineup don’t have the track records most of the Braves hitters do.
Pick: Braves -102
