Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 8 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-130, 9.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Tigers (28-40) won the opener 10-4, taking care of business as -135 home favorites. Then the Twins (31-38) bounced back with a 6-4 win yesterday, coming through as +140 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Twins hand the ball to righty Zebby Matthews (2-3, 4.15 ERA) and the Tigers counter with fellow righty Keider Montero (2-4, 3.95 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -120 home favorite and Minnesota a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Tigers laying short chalk at home, steaming Detroit up from -120 to -130, with some shops touching as high as -135.
At Circa, the Tigers are taking in only 57% of moneyline bets but a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
Pro money has also come down in favor of the Tigers run-line (-1.5 at +160), as Detroit is receiving 51% of spread bets but 84% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Home favorites -140 or less, like the Tigers here, are 182-136 (57%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Home favorites -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 120-82 (59%) with an 8% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, the home favorite -140 or less has gone 90-59 (60%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Matthews is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA on the road this season. He has also posted a 5.19 ERA during the day compared to 2.77 at night.
Detroit has the better bullpen, posting a 4.20 ERA compared to 4.97 for Minnesota (3rd worst in MLB).
The Tigers are 17-16 at home. The Twins are 13-20 on the road.
6:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-170, 9.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Dodgers (43-25) dominated the opener 12-3, coming through as +100 road dogs. Then the Pirates (35-33) posted an improbable 9-8 comeback victory yesterday, cashing as +170 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Dodgers send out lefty Justin Wrobleski (7-2, 2.62 ERA) and the Pirates go with righty Mitch Keller (5-3, 4.81 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -150 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +130 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Dodgers to earn a win and take the series, steaming Los Angeles up from -150 to -170.
At DraftKings, Los Angeles is receiving 88% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Dodgers are taking in 69% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Non-division road favorites priced -150 or more with a win percentage of .610 or greater, like the Dodgers here, are 49-21 (70%) with a 7% ROI since 2025.
When both teams are above .500, the team receiving line movement has gone 88-53 (62%) with a 15% ROI this season.
Wrobleski is 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA on the road this season and 5-1 with a 2.44 ERA in night games.
Meanwhile, Keller has posted an 8.31 ERA in his last five starts, giving up 24 earned runs in 26 innings pitched. He has posted a 5.22 ERA at home compared to 4.32 on the road and a 7.03 ERA in night games compared to 3.07 during the day.
The Dodgers are hitting .270 against righties and .275 on the road, both ranked 1st in MLB.
