Today we have a smaller than usual 11 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox (-110, 7)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Phillies (20-23) won the opener 2-1, taking care of business as -135 road favorites. Then the Red Sox (18-24) bounced back with a 3-1 win last night, cashing as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Phillies hand the ball to lefty Jesus Luzardo (3-3, 5.77 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to fellow southpaw Ranger Suarez (2-2, 2.77 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -120 road favorite and Boston a +100 home dog.
The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with the Phillies, as Philadelphia is taking in 55% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.
However, despite the Phillies receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen the line move away from Philadelphia (-120 to -110) and toward Boston (+100 to -110). Essentially, we are seeing sharp reverse line movement on the Red Sox push this game down toward a pick’em.
At DraftKings, Boston is taking in 45% of moneyline bets and 53% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of Boston, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
The Red Sox have the slightly better bats, hitting .236 with a .313 OBP compared to the Phillies hitting .232 with a .299 OBP.
Boston is hitting .271 against lefties this season, tied for 1st in MLB. On the other hand, Philadelphia is hitting .215 against southpaws, ranking 25th.
Suarez has allowed zero earned runs in two straight starts and four of his last five starts overall.
Meanwhile, Luzardo has posted a 6.75 ERA in two May starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched.
Boston also has the edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.22 (4th best in MLB) compared to 3.96 for Philadelphia (15th).
7:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (-180, 7.5)
The Braves (30-13) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-2 as -125 home favorites and then winning again last night 4-1 as +100 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Cubs (27-16) send out righty Ben Brown (1-1, 1.82 ERA) and the Braves rebuttal with lefty Chris Sale (6-2, 2.20 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -150 home favorite and Chicago a +130 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the wood with Atlanta, steaming the Braves up from -150 to -180.
At Circa, the Braves are taking in 55% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action from the pros in Vegas.
Pros have also sided with the Braves on the run-line (-1.5 at +125), as Atlanta is receiving 69% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Atlanta has betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Braves are hitting .285 at home and .274 against righties, both tops in MLB.
Sale is 4-0 with a 0.75 ERA at home this season.
Atlanta is 23-8 (74%) with a 25% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk record in MLB.
10:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-180, 8)
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The Giants (18-25) won the first two games, taking the opener 9-3 as +155 road dogs and winning the second game 6-2 as +270 road dogs. Then the Dodgers (25-18) bounced back with a 4-0 win last night, coming through as -250 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Giants start righty Landen Roupp (5-3, 3.09 ERA) and the Dodgers go with fellow righty Emmet Sheehan (2-1, 4.79 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -165 home favorite and San Francisco a +145 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the hefty price and have laid the chalk with the Dodgers to earn a win and split the series, pushing Los Angeles up from -165 to -180.
At Circa, the Dodgers are receiving 47% of moneyline bets but 71% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Los Angeles has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Dodgers are 101-53 (66%) with an 8% ROI as a home favorite priced -190 or less since 2022.
Los Angeles has the better bats, hitting .263 with a .342 OBP and 212 runs scored compared to San Francisco hitting .243 with a .290 OBP and 145 runs scored.
The Dodgers are hitting .264 against righties (2nd in MLB) while the Giants are hitting .241 (15th).
The Dodgers are 14-10 at home. The Giants are 8-13 on the road.
