Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 6 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (-155, 7.5)
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The White Sox (28-27) have taken two of the first three games, winning 15-2 yesterday as a -110 home pick’em.
In this early afternoon series finale, the Twins (27-29) hand the ball to lefty Kendry Rojas (1-0, 1.26 ERA) and the White Sox counter with righty Davis Martin (7-1, 2.04 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -120 home favorite and Minnesota a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the White Sox to keep it rolling at home, steaming Chicago up from -120 to -155.
At DraftKings, the White Sox are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the White Sox are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the White Sox here, are 56-33 (63%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The White Sox are 9-1 in Davis’s ten starts this season. He is 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA at home and 1-0 with a 0.98 ERA in day games.
Chicago is hitting .247 against lefties (13th in MLB) while Minnesota is hitting .234 against righties (22nd).
The White Sox are 16-11 at home this season. The Twins are 12-15 on the road.
6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-170, 7.5)
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The Pirates (29-27) won the first two games, taking the opener 2-1 as +105 home dogs and winning the second game 12-1 as -140 home favorites. Then the Cubs (30-26) bounced back with a 10-4 win yesterday, coming through as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Cubs send out righty Colin Rea (4-3, 4.83 ERA) and the Pirates turn to fellow righty Paul Skenes (6-4, 3.00 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -165 home favorite and Chicago a +145 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood the Pirates with their ace on the mount, pushing Pittsburgh up from -165 to -170, with some shops approaching -175.
At Circa, the Pirates are taking in 36% of moneyline bets but 76% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Pittsburgh has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Pirates are 17-9 (65%) with a 21% ROI off a loss this season, the 5th most profitable “bounce back” team in MLB. If coming off a loss and also receiving line movement in their favor, like they are here, the Pirates are 7-2 (78%) with a 33% ROI this season.
The Pirates have the better bats, hitting .252 with 274 runs scored compared to the Cubs hitting .238 with 265 runs scored.
Pittsburgh is hitting .276 at home (1st in MLB) and .252 against righties (6th) while Chicago is hitting .234 on the road (18th) and .232 against righties (25th).
Skenes is 5-0 with a 0.51 ERA in night games this season.
Meanwhile, Rea has posted a 5.06 ERA in five May starts, giving up 15 earned runs in 26.2 innings pitched. He has a 6.75 ERA on the road compared to 2.96 at home.
