Congratulations to the Houston Astros, who are the first MLB playoff team to finish a season 81-81. That was all it took to win the AL West and the Chicago White Sox, who finished 84-78, get to go on the road to Daikin Park for Game 1 of the Wild Card Round on Tuesday, September 29. The last time the White Sox made the playoffs was 2021 and they were knocked out in the ALDS by the Astros, so we’ll see if one of the league’s best stories of the season can get revenge.
This is the first season with a winning record for the Pale Hose since that 2021 campaign, as they lost 102, 121, 101, and 81 games, finishing 11 games back of the Guardians back in 2022 with a .500 record. This is one of the most remarkable turnarounds we’ve seen in a while. Chicago won 24 more games year over year, scored nearly 130 more runs, and did so with one of the youngest position player groups in the league.
Houston, who missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016, won the division for the eighth time in 10 years. This is easily the worst Houston team that we’ve seen since 2014, which is the last time that the team had a negative run differential. But, in the Tournament of Variance, anything can happen and it’s entirely possible that the Astros play their best ball when it matters most.
White Sox vs. Astros Wild Card Round Odds
Astros -145 // White Sox +125
Total Games: 2.5 (-110/-110)
White Sox vs. Astros Wild Card Round Schedule
*all games in Houston
Game 1: Tuesday, September 29, 5 p.m. ET (Peacock/NBCSN)
Game 2: Wednesday, September 30, 5 p.m. ET (Peacock/NBCSN)
Game 3: Thursday, October 1, 5 p.m. ET (Peacock/NBCSN) – if necessary
White Sox vs. Astros Offense
Slight Edge: Astros
Let me preface this by saying that the White Sox offense has a wider range of outcomes. They strike out more, draw more walks, and steal more bases. But, the Astros led the bigs in dingers this season, with five guys hitting 20+ and Yordan Alvarez with 42 to pace the ballclub. Christian Walker hit his 30th HR on the final day of the season. The White Sox had three guys hit 30+, led by Munetaka Murakami, who probably would have eclipsed 40 if he hadn’t gotten hurt and missed more than 30 games.
The Astros have a more experienced lineup. Among regulars, the only White Sox with playoff plate appearances are Andrew Benintendi, who won the 2018 World Series with the Red Sox, and Randal Grichuk, who had 36 of his 52 playoff PA back in 2014 with the Cardinals in his age-22 season. Several of the core guys for the Astros have been part of the organization over the last few seasons. Experience isn’t a guarantee of production, but the White Sox have a lot of young, free-swingers in the lineup.
However, the White Sox had nearly twice as many stolen bases and had a higher on-base percentage despite a higher strikeout rate because of their ability to draw walks. Chicago also scored more runs on the season than the Astros did. That said, the White Sox were shut out 11 times and held to one or zero runs 24 times. This is a promising, talented, and athletic lineup, but one that can be extremely inconsistent at times. Of course, the Astros were held to one or zero runs 23 times.
One thing that has worried me all season about both lineups is that they are heavily-slanted in the handedness department. The Astros finished ninth in wOBA against RHP, while the White Sox were 17th. Houston had the most R vs. R plate appearances in the league and collectively posted a 98 wRC+ in those 3,208 trips to the plate. The White Sox did get more balanced offensively after trading for Brenton Doyle and acquiring Grichuk, but Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth, and switch hitter Braden Montgomery, who batted just .122 right-handed, were the only regulars capable of hitting from the right side.
White Sox vs. Astros Pitching
Slight Edge: Astros
From a starter standpoint, the White Sox were 26th in ERA at 4.60 and the Astros were 27th at 4.81. Houston’s starters had the lower xERA, but the higher FIP. Hunter Brown is a difference maker for the Astros and he would be on full rest for Game 2 after pitching on Friday. Similarly, Sean Burke is lined up for regular rest on Wednesday for Chicago after posting a 3.34 ERA with a 3.78 xERA and a 3.62 FIP over 172.1 innings. Both teams may have to cobble together Game 1.
Where I think the Astros have the advantage is with the bullpens. To me, Chicago’s best and most dynamic relief arms outside of closer Grant Taylor are lefties Hagen Smith, Sean Newcomb, and Bryan Hudson, probably in that order. I’ll be very interested to see how Will Venable tries to match up his relievers in this series. You’d love to have Smith and Newcomb available for Alvarez as much as possible. Beyond that, you’re going to be hoping that they can get a bunch of righties out.
Houston’s bullpen strikes me as more balanced. Bryan King, Bennett Sousa, and Josh Hader are tenured Astros from the left side and Bryan Abreu and AJ Blubaugh are solid right-handed options. Chicago’s relief corps had the better regular season by ERA, but the Astros were better by xERA and struck out more hitters.
Also, and, admittedly, I’m not sure how much this matters, the White Sox have very little playoff experience on the pitching staff. Newcomb threw 8.1 innings with the Braves in 2018-19. Jordan Hicks has three career appearances in the postseason. That’s pretty much it.
White Sox vs. Astros Miscellaneous Notes
By Outs Above Average, there was about an 18-run defensive difference between the two teams, with the White Sox grading higher. Both Kyle Teel and Yainer Diaz were below average pitch framers. Astros backup Christian Vazquez was one of the league’s better backstops in that regard. We’ll see if he possibly plays more in this series as a result.
The young White Sox were 48-33 at home this season and just 36-45 on the road with a -16 run differential. Also, outside of an 18-10 month of May, they were no better than a game above .500 in any other month. The Astros actually had a losing record at home of 39-42 and erased a 12-20 start to make the playoffs, though they were just 11-13 in September. Neither team really enters the playoffs playing all that well.
White Sox vs. Astros Wild Card Prediction
Lean: White Sox +125
Houston has home-field advantage, the experience edge, and the best hitter and pitcher in the series with Alvarez and Brown. This just isn’t a very good team otherwise. While the White Sox do strike out more often, they also walk more often and had the sixth-lowest Chase Rate with the fifth-highest Zone Swing Percentage in the league during the regular season. This is a young team, but they do make a lot of good swing decisions. The White Sox had a higher Barrel% and a higher Hard Hit%.
I think every game in this series will be some kind of adventure. Neither team has an embarrassment of riches in the rotation, so we’re going to see tons of mixing and matching and maneuvering for both skippers. Astros manager Joe Espada got swept in the 2024 Wild Card with Houston at home against the Tigers, as his team scored just three runs on 12 hits. I think Venable has a pretty good feel as a manager and that could make the difference with his young and hungry ballclub.
Other series previews: Phillies vs. Braves | Red Sox vs. Yankees | Cubs vs. Padres
