UFC Macau Predictions:
UFC Fight Night Macao takes place this week in the wee hours PT from the Eastern Hemisphere. Preliminary action begins at 1 a.m. PT with the main card dropping at 4 a.m. PT.
This fight slate is scheduled for 15 bouts, two of which (Road to the UFC bouts) take place in the days prior to Saturday. For handicapping purposes, this column focuses only on the athletes already competing in the UFC, so we will offer no opinion on the RTUFC bouts.
Of the 13 bouts on this card, all feature a fighter from the general vicinity competing against a fighter from outside the hemisphere. Travel can and does affect weight cuts and athlete performances.
Also of note is that there is only one fight with the favorite lined under -205, which signifies a card erected not only for finishes but also one designed to allow the regional fighters to shine in front of their brethren.
Throughout this card are premium examples of regional fighters being awarded favorable matchups. This is a deliberate effort by the UFC to handpick opponents, allowing regional athletes to shine and thereby fuel the UFC fire in that particular corner of the world.
Five fights are going to be held at the larger weight classes of 170 pounds and above. There are also several fights featuring athletes with a five-year-or-greater youth advantage. A six-year youth advantage provides the younger fighter a 62+% win advantage, and that win rate grows as the age gap widens!
Song Yadong -600 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +500
Bantamweight (135 pounds) main event
Brazilian Figueiredo is a former flyweight champion who, at 38 years old, can no longer make the flyweight limit and now competes against naturally larger, stronger, and younger modern stalwarts at 135 pounds.
With a 1-3 record in his last four bouts, Figueiredo has competed against the elite of the division, but his approach in those fights has been one of ‘survival’ as opposed to a mad Brazilian fighter looking to take out any opponent set before him.
Figueiredo’s lack of size/strength is a factor against these younger, larger, faster men. Also, his skills have waned substantially.
Figueiredo enters this fight with a negative .74 significant strike ratio per minute, and his takedown offense, as well as his takedown defense, has eroded.
Figueiredo has been relevant in the UFC, but he is only useful now as a stepping stone for viable top UFC bantamweights.
In Yadong, we have a Chinese fighter who has trained for years in America with Uriah Faber at Team Alpha Male. Yadong’s wrestling has evolved greatly in his last several years at Alpha Male, which supplements his already forceful boxing and Muay Thai prowess.
Yadong will be the larger man in the cage. He’s a decade younger, and he will be the more adroit, athletic fighter.
Yadong is 3-2 in his last five fights, losing only to ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley and Petr Yan, both top-three fighters in the division.
When this fight begins, Yadong will forcefully attempt to engage Figueredo with striking. His single point of focus will be to unglue the Brazilian and force a stoppage for his Countrymen.
Figueiredo has had injuries affect his performances in two of his last three bouts, stemming from his age and the combat attrition he has accrued.
Should Figueiredo attempt to actually engage Yadong and make this a fight, then it is my judgment that this fight ends in a Yadong TKO. However, should Figgy decide to try and ‘survive’ and make it to the final bell, then this fight turns into a snoozer which no one, the UFC, the fans, nor the Yadong camp wishes to experience.
If Figgy comes to fight, it will be a finish for Yadong.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -125
Alex Perez -140 vs. Su Mudaerji +110
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Let’s break down the only competitively priced bout of the slate!
Su is an unranked Chinese athlete now training in California, so he had to travel to get to Macao. That being said, he should have the accommodations to be able to spend plenty of time in Macao to acclimate to the time, weather, etc.
Su is primarily a striker. His early influences in fighting came in childhood, when he specialized in San Da, a Chinese kickboxing derivative.
Su’s striking is his specialty, and while his long, lean body frame is a perfect temple for his striking style, the fact is that Su’s primarily a singularly dimensioned fighter as well as an accumulation striker for his power is basically a non-factor.
Su’s wrestling/grappling prowess is inadequate at best. Those wishing to Smother Su in the cage immediately apply wrestling/grappling pressure to take the striker from a relative comfort zone (standing in space) to one of complete incapacity (clinched up then on the canvas).
In Alex Perez, we have the 11th-ranked flyweight on the roster. Perez holds solid wrestling acumen, and his grappling is also developed. Perez can fight on the feet as well, as he has seven fights won via KO/TKO. Perez is a complete mixed martial artist who, at 34, will be four years older than Su in this battle.
While Su will sport height, youth, and reach advantages, it is Perez who has been in the octagon with a more skilled set of adversaries, and the completeness of his fighting game allows him to be able to defeat fighters outside of the rankings, especially one that arrives without a well-rounded fight arsenal.
It is when he competes against the top eight of the division that Perez struggles, as he has lost only to the ranked of the flyweight division.
Perez’s experience, his level of competition faced, and his complete fight acumen differentiate these two, who were priced at pick ’em when this fight opened.
Now the price on Perez has risen slightly to -140.
UFC Macau Best Bet: Alex Perez -140 (Circa)
On Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms, as well as on the GambLou.com front page. Catch all my final releases there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
