MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, June 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:35 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has had a rough season with a 6.84 ERA, but his 4.84 fielding independent points toward positivity, and he faces a Red Sox lineup that is last in scoring at home with 3.2 runs per game. The Red Sox plan to have Brayan Bello pitch either as the starter or in a bulk role. He owns a 5.63 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings, but in his last five appearances has given up one run or fewer in four of them.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -108 and Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -126 and Total 8.7
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi has struggled this season, posting a 5.25 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed and faces a Yankees lineup that leads the league in scoring at home with 5.7 runs per game. Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodón has had command issues in his four starts since coming off the injured list, issuing 6.2 walks per nine innings, but seems to be ironing out those issues after allowing just two walks in six innings in his last start. Overall, he has a 3.32 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 +125
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -1.5 -111
2:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers rookie Coleman Crow, in his small sample size of three starts at the big league level, has a 3.14 ERA with 0.6 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings allowed and faces a Giants lineup that is 27th in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. Giants starting pitcher Adrian Houser has struggled with a 5.59 ERA, allowing 1.4 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings, but has the support of a bullpen that is 17th in ERA at 4.12, while the Brewers are fifth with a 3.22 bullpen ERA.
Pick: Giants vs. Brewers Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
7:15 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 starts this season, but his 2.01 ERA appears due for some regression as he has a 2.90 fielding independent. The Blue Jays offense is 22nd in scoring with 4.1 runs per game but has the lowest road strikeout percentage of any offense in baseball. The Blue Jays have yet to announce a starting pitcher but are expected to give Chad Dallas his first appearance in some form on the mound after he registered a 4.50 ERA at the minor league level while having issues lending length, pitching 36 total innings in 10 appearances.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Braves Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
8:05 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has had a miserable go of things over his past three starts, allowing 20 total runs during that stretch, but overall still has respectable numbers with a 4.37 ERA and 4.43 fielding independent, along with 8.9 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings. Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn has a low 2.87 ERA, but that may be due for regression with a 4.11 fielding independent, 7.8 strikeouts, and 3.9 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is 21st in ERA at 4.45, while the Cubs bullpen is ninth in ERA at 3.42.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -141
