The model has settled into a familiar place. Sitting at 55–30–4 on the 2026 season, right around that 65% line that tends to be the natural landing spot as the year matures. The encouraging part isn’t the record. It’s how the losses have come. Low-tier plays carrying high variance. The warning system has been doing its job.
This week is actually a split weekend for combat sports fans. MVP MMA 1 drops on Netflix with one of the more interesting women’s MMA matchups in Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano. Dave Ross and I gave our take on this week’s First Strike, so give the full episode a listen and follow.
But on the UFC side, the promotion heads back to the APEX for UFC Vegas 117, headlined by Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa in a featherweight main event. That’s what we’re here for today.
Let’s dig in.
Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana
The model finds its clearest edge on the card right here in the opener, and the numbers make it easy to see why.
Alice Ardelean enters on a two-fight win streak, most recently a decision over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz last November. She’s 2–2 in the UFC overall. Still finding her footing in the promotion, but the underlying numbers paint a picture of a fighter who is consistently competitive and can win rounds. Across from her is Polyana Viana, riding a three-fight losing streak and sitting at 4–7 in the promotion. The trajectory couldn’t be more different between these two.
Viana does hold the physical edge, a five-inch reach advantage at 67 inches, but that’s where the advantages end.
The xR% gap is significant. Ardelean checks in at a strong 73%, reflecting a fighter who controls the pace and finds ways to win rounds consistently. Viana sits at 45%. Below the red flag line and a number that tells the story of a fighter who has been on the losing end of more rounds than not throughout her UFC run.
Viana can finish fights, one knockout and three submission victories in the UFC, along with nine submission attempts, but she’s also been finished four times herself. Ardelean hasn’t been stopped once in her UFC career, which matters when evaluating how this fight plays out stylistically.
The striking profiles tell a clear story. Ardelean spends 85% of her fight time at distance. She wants to keep this standing and use her output to control the pace. She lands 7.35 significant strikes per minute with a +2.15 differential, absorbing 5.20 per minute in the process. High volume both ways, but she’s winning the exchange decisively. Viana on the other hand lands just 2.74 significant strikes per minute with a modest +0.24 differential. One of the lower output numbers on the roster. When a fighter is producing that little volume, they need to be exceptional somewhere else to win rounds.
The ground game doesn’t provide Viana that somewhere else. Ardelean holds an 87% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges compared to just 13% for Viana. Viana has spent 51% of her ground time being controlled by opponents and defends takedowns at only 35%. Ardelean, by contrast, defends at 86%. Meaning she gets to dictate where this fight lives, and everything says she keeps it standing.
The model delivers a 70.38% win probability for Alice Ardelean. Her moneyline sits at –200, implying roughly 67%, leaving a small edge. She lands as a Tier 2 favorite, not an overwhelming confidence score, but enough to act on a card this light.
The cleaner play for value is the decision prop at –115. Ardelean has zero UFC finishes and a profile built entirely around outworking opponents over time. If the model is right, this fight goes the distance and the prop pays better than the moneyline.
Doo Ho Choi vs Daniel Santos
The Korean Superboy is back and the model isn’t sure what to make of it.
Doo Ho Choi had one of the more eventful early UFC careers you’ll find. A brutal three-fight losing streak from 2016 to 2019 was followed by years away from the octagon due to injuries and mandatory military service. He returned in 2023 to a draw and has since strung together back-to-back TKO victories, most recently knocking out Nate Landwehr. That fight was all the way back in December of 2024. Another lengthy layoff before Saturday’s return.
Across from him is Daniel Santos, 29 years old and riding a four-fight win streak after a TKO victory over Joo Sang Yoo last October. Santos is active, hungry, and on the right side of momentum.
Choi holds a three-inch reach advantage at 70 inches, and the xR% gap is modest. Choi checks in at 64%, Santos at 59%. Close enough that the round-winning metrics alone don’t separate them clearly.
The striking numbers are similarly tight. Choi lands 4.67 significant strikes per minute with a +0.65 differential. Santos lands 4.76 per minute but posts a –0.27 differential, absorbing more than he’s giving back in striking exchanges. That negative differential is a concern for Santos if this stays standing.
Where Santos builds his case is on the ground. He holds an 84% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, has scored 12 takedowns at 40% accuracy while attempting 4.14 per five minutes, and defends takedowns at 73%. Choi’s ground game is considerably quieter, a 52% control rate and a less active takedown profile. If Santos can get this fight to the mat consistently, the dynamic shifts.
Running it through the model, the result lands on Choi, but without conviction. Doo Ho Choi receives a 56.47% win probability, a narrow lean that produces a Dead Dog tier designation. That’s the model telling us the edge isn’t real enough to act on, and the layoff concern adds another layer of uncertainty on top of an already thin margin.
This one is a prediction without a play. Choi gets the model nod, but the bankroll stays put.
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa
Arnold Allen built one of the more impressive win streaks in featherweight history upon arriving to the UFC. 10 straight UFC victories before running into the best the division had to offer. Losses to Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev are nothing to be ashamed of. He got back in the win column against Giga Chikadze, then started 2026 with a decision loss to Jean Silva last January. He now sits 1–3 in his last four and enters this one looking to reverse a troubling trend.
Across from him is Melquizael “The Dalmatian” Costa, riding a six-fight win streak that most recently included handing Dan Ige his first-ever TKO loss back in February. Costa has momentum, finishing ability, and the confidence of a fighter who hasn’t lost in a long time.
The xR% gap is modest. Allen sits at 60%, not bad for a fighter who has struggled recently. And Costa edges him at 68%. Neither number screams dominant, but Costa’s is clearly the healthier mark heading into fight week.
Allen is the striker by profile, spending 74% of his time at distance and landing 3.47 significant strikes per minute with a +0.43 differential. Costa is the more balanced threat at 50% time at distance, landing 4.38 significant strikes per minute with a +1.42 differential. Meaning higher output, better efficiency, and a lower absorption rate. In a standup fight, the striking metrics favor Costa.
Durability is where Allen earns a significant edge. He has never been finished in his entire professional MMA career and has never been knocked down either. Costa has been knocked down once. That toughness matters in a fight where both men are capable of landing clean shots.
The grappling picture is relatively even. Both men have scored 11 takedowns at similar accuracy rates in the 40–50% range. Allen defends takedowns at 72% compared to Costa’s 59%, which gives Allen a meaningful defensive edge if the fight hits the mat. Costa does attempt takedowns at a slightly more aggressive rate.
Running it through the model, the output lands on Costa, but barely. Melky Costa receives a 54.05% win probability, a coin-flip result that produces a Dead Dog tier designation at his current odds of +112. The model has a lean but nowhere near enough confidence to recommend a play. This is a prediction from the model, not a bet.
The model sits at 55–30–4 on the 2026 season. The process is working.
A total of 7 fights modeled this week. For the full model tale of the tape and fight reports on the rest of the card, head to FightingWithNumbers.com.
Follow along on X at @TheRobbeo and @drosssports for more.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
