The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Thursday, March 21. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 21
2023 Record: 268-275-2 (-13.88 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – March 21
New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic – 7:00 pm ET
This is a play that I’m not trying to overthink. While Orlando is fourth in the league in adjusted defensive rating, New Orleans is fifth in that category. So, not much separates these teams defensively. However, the Pelicans are a borderline top-10 team when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency, while the Magic are just 24th in that regard. So, New Orleans is a much better offensive team, and the Pelicans are also a much better 3-point shooting team. Also, when push comes to shove, Orlando just doesn’t have anybody with as much offensive juice as Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. If this is a close game down the stretch, those two should get the Pelicans over the finish line.
I also like that New Orleans comes into this game after having last played on Monday. So, not only are the Pelicans the better team here, but they’re also going to have fresher legs. The only thing I’m a little nervous about here is that this is a road game. But New Orleans is 22-13 when playing away from home this season.
Bet: Pelicans ML (-136 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 21
Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards – 7:00 pm ET
The Wizards are last in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, and they also play at the league’s fastest pace. So, this Washington team welcomes big offensive performances from opponents. That said, I’m looking for one from Domantas Sabonis tonight. Sabonis has been an absolute monster for Sacramento lately, averaging 20.9 points, 16.7 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game since the start of March. The highly-skilled big man has been picking defenses apart in a number of ways, but I expect him to be a little more aggressive as a scorer here. The Wizards are just completely depleted at center right now, so I’m not sure who they’ll have to bang with Sabonis down low. The only thing to worry about here is a blowout. I have had a few NBA player props lose because of lopsided games lately.
Bet: Sabonis Over 21.5 Points (-109 – 1.5 units)
Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets – 8:00 pm ET
Dillon Brooks is coming off a game in which he scored only two points in a win over the Wizards. However, Brooks had scored at least 12 points in his previous three games. And I like the 28-year-old to turn in a good offensive performance against the Bulls tonight. Chicago is a rock-solid defensive team, so I expect the Bulls to have a plan in place to try and slow down a red-hot Jalen Green. That would mean opportunities for other Rockets to step up. And Brooks is a guy that tends to play well when his team is counting on him. Don’t be surprised if Brooks gets some good looks from deep and buries a couple of 3s — specifically from the corner. Chicago is just 27th in the league when it comes to guarding the corner 3.
Bet: Brooks Over 11.5 Points (-120 – 2 units)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Suns ML vs. Hawks & Nuggets ML vs. Knicks (-185 – 2 units): I don’t feel like potentially sweating out the spread on either of these games, but I absolutely love both teams to win and think there should be significantly more juice than this.
The Suns are playing the second night of a back-to-back, but they earned a blowout win over the Philadelphia 76ers last night. So, even though Phoenix’s starters played real minutes last night, it’s not like those were high-stress minutes. Meanwhile, Atlanta is finishing up a five-game road trip tonight, and the team lost by 31 points to the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday. This Hawks team is hurting for offense, so this is a good matchup for the Suns. And Phoenix will want this one. The Hawks beat the Suns rather easily in February. Phoenix will want revenge and needs a win due to its spot in the Western Conference standings.
As for the Nuggets, it’s never easy playing the Knicks. However, New York won’t have OG Anunoby tonight. The Knicks have been able to beat lesser competition without the stud two-way wing, but beating the defending champs will be a whole other problem. The Nuggets are a top-10 team in adjusted defensive efficiency, so they should stifle the Knicks a bit. And New York might be good defensively, but stopping Denver at less than full strength is a tough ask — especially on the road.
Grayson Allen Over 12.5 Points (-124 – 2 units) vs. Atlanta Hawks
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