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NBA Best Bets
Record: 66-42-1 | Units: +20.6u | ROI: 17.5%
Chicago Bulls (-1.5, 228) at *Toronto Raptors
Just when it seemed the magic had worn off from Toronto’s newly formed team it went out and made a believer of me again. The Raptors were incredible in their 121-97 win over the Heat on Wednesday. They put up 1.322 points per possession in non-garbage time, and improved to 4-5 SU/6-3 ATS in the nine games since acquiring RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. The time to jump off the train might be now, but I’ll grab a ticket for one last ride tonight against Chicago.
The Bulls had been running hot for a while, but the temperature has definitely cooled in the Windy City. Chicago is just 6-6 SU/4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games, and it has been outscored by 4.3 points every 100 possessions. That losing record against the number – coupled with a -4.1 spread differential over that span – would tell us that the Bulls are being overvalued by the market.
Chicago did go 8-3 SU/10-1 ATS in the 10 games prior, but it’s clear the market is still too high after that run. The Bulls are much closer to the Raptors when it comes to power rating than the market believes. This number today tells us the market makes Chicago 4.5 points better on a neutral. That is not the separation that I have between these two, so that warrants a wager on the Raptors.
It should be pointed out that Chicago does come in on two days of rest while Toronto is playing its third game in four nights and is on the second leg of a back-to-back. However, all of these contests will be at home. The Raptors returned from their west coast trip on Saturday. This team has been home for nearly a week, and is also getting in some valuable practice time that is not afforded when on a road trip. That is huge for a roster put together just 17 days ago.
Play: Raptors ML (+110) – Playable to (+100)
Oklahoma City Thunder (-3, 246) at Utah Jazz
This is a fascinating contest in Salt Lake City that I cannot wait to watch. One could argue this is a meeting of two teams that are at – or very near – their market high. Utah is on a 6-0 SU and ATS run, and since Dec. 12 it is 15-4 SU and ATS with a +11.1 spread differential. Oklahoma City is not running as hot at the moment, but it is the best cover team in the league (26-13-1 ATS).
So, what gives when you have two of the higher rated teams going at it? Tonight, I believe the move is to fade the hot team.
The Jazz have been destroying the point spread during this run, but that is due to closing as an underdog in 15 of the 19 games and catching on average 5.7 points in those games. Utah is catching only three points tonight, a number which would suggest only a 5.5 point difference between these two teams on a neutral court. The Thunder are one of the best teams in the Western Conference, and they have the third-highest odds of winning the conference. The gap between them and the Jazz is higher than what this number would suggest.
As is the case at times with these plays, this is a pure play on the number. I believe Utah is at a market-high with its power rating, and I’ll use Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder to test that belief.
Play: Thunder (-3.5) – Playable to (-4)
Best Bets
Raptors ML (+110)
Thunder (-3.5)
