In recent weeks on VSiN.com, I have unveiled some of the best betting systems and trends for the earlier rounds of the NBA playoffs. Now, as the association moves on to the Finals, a matchup between 2nd-seeded San Antonio and 3rd-seeded New York, so do I in sharing the key info you might need to bet this matchup, from both a series and game-by-game standpoint.

Before we dig into the 2026 NBA Finals matchup, it is imperative that I share some of what has happened so far in this year’s playoffs. To say it has been competitive would be a massive overstatement. Sure, we have seen five Game 7s in the first three rounds, but the games within any of the series have been one-sided. In fact, of the 86 games we have endured, including the play-in round, ONLY SIX have been decided by 3 points or less. Furthermore, 55 of these 86 games were decided by double-digit margins. What does this mean for bettors? Well, money line wagering on underdogs and point spread betting on favorites has certainly been the winning recipe. The ATS record of outright winners is an absurd 78-8 ATS (90.6%)! The good news…and I’ll share more about this in a bit, but the NBA Finals’ recent history suggests this particular trend will indeed continue.

Another bit of encouraging news…for the first time in three seasons, the finals series is expected to be somewhat competitive, with San Antonio sitting as a -190 series favorite as of Tuesday morning, with Game 1 slated for Wednesday night. Last year, the Thunder were -700 for the series. Indiana forced seven games a year ago before losing at OKC. That matchup featured an 18-game win difference in regular-season records. This year’s is only eight. Plus, New York has seemingly saved its best basketball for the right time, having now won 11 straight postseason games since falling behind 2-1 in the first round versus Atlanta. However, the Spurs just finished off the defending champions on the road in a Game 7 and feature arguably the league’s most impactful player in Victor Wembanyama. Again, Game 1 is slated for Wednesday, June 3rd, and should the series go seven games, it will wrap up on Friday, June 19th. As such, you should have plenty of time to digest all of the Finals trends I am about to share.

Before getting into the specific trends, you should know that nine of the last 12 Finals series not matching equal seeds have been won by the better seed, including the last three. San Antonio will attempt to run that to 10 out of 13. Also note that outright winners in the NBA Finals are a ridiculous 62-3-3 ATS (95.4%) over the last 11 seasons, including a 7-0 ATS sweep a year ago. This ATS record for outright winners beats every similar study I’ve done in a variety of sports and thus stands as an endorsement for money line wagering on underdogs. I’ll get into more of that later. Also, Under the total has converted in 17 of the last 20 finals games overall.

This is the final part of a four-part series. I hope you’ve enjoyed and profited from it. Good luck with your NBA Finals wagering.

As I reasoned in the first three articles of this package, being able to predict an upset or favorite domination in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively, which favorites will end a series quickly, can really boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these Finals’ trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season and in the playoffs to date.

In the last 13 playoff seasons, the better seeds own a 9-3 edge in Finals wins and a 42-26 game wins edge during that span. In 2016, Cleveland and Golden State were both #1 seeds.

This will be the 11th time in 13 seasons that the West representative has had a better regular-season record. In that time, the team with the better regular-season record is 11-2.

This will be the 11th time since 2013 that one of the teams has won at least 10% more regular-season games. In those other 10 recent series, the series record is 9-1, and the individual game record is 39-19.

I explained in the conference finals round that there had been a massive advantage, of late, for teams that had played fewer games in the first two rounds. That continued this season for New York, who moved past the Knicks to advance. OKC, however, lost on this trend in the West finals. There is no such advantage for the finals, as in the 11 series since 2013 in which teams played an uneven number of games in the first three rounds, the finals team that played fewer games is just 6-5 in series wins and 34-28 in individual wins. For 2026, New York holds a four-game edge in this regard, having lost just twice in the first three rounds.

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or fewer in an NBA Finals game have struggled, going just 8-37 SU and 8-36-1 ATS (18.2%).

Success accompanies reaching the 105-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 105 points or more boast a record of 50-19 SU and 46-18-5 ATS (71.9%) over the last 10 years.

If you’re interested after the two scoring trends above, in its 14 playoff games so far, New York has scored 105 or more ALL 14 times! San Antonio has scored 104 or less three times and 105 or more 15 times.

Home teams are a better wagering option, particularly recently – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 34-24 SU and 30-26-2 ATS (53.5%) since 2014. This includes an improved 17-11-1 ATS (60.7%) mark in the last 29 games.

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 21-9 SU and 18-11-1 ATS (62.1%) in the last 30 Finals’ games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.

Winners cover, period – Over the last 12 seasons, and 681 games, outright winners have gone 62-3-3 ATS (95.4%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 75 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 30 Overs, 43 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 29-13-1 (69%) run in the last 43 games.

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5-points or more are 29-8 SU and 24-11-2 ATS (68.6%). This is a similar trend to that from the conference finals round, if you recall. SA is already a 4.5-point home favorite for Game 1 and figures to qualify for this trend in any home game it plays.

Small home favorites have been vulnerable – Again, like the conference finals, the record of the last 18 small home favorites (-4 points or less) in the NBA Finals is just 6-12 SU and ATS (33.3%). The last play on this was between Dallas and Boston in 2024, and the Mavericks (-3) lost outright 106-99.

Home underdogs’ bark is less than their bite – Home underdogs in the NBA Finals have proven to be overmatched recently, going just 4-8 SU and ATS (33.3%) in their last 12 opportunities. However, the Pacers did take two out of three games outright & ATS a year ago.

Bad shooting games have carried over negative momentum in the Finals – Teams coming off games where they shot less than 41.5% in an NBA Finals game are just 8-15 SU and ATS (34.8%) outright in their last 23 tries.

Good 3PT shooting games don’t carry momentum – While poor shooting games overall don’t bode well for teams in the next NBA Finals game, neither does hot 3-point shooting, as teams that shoot 46% or better from deep have gone just 2-10 SU and 1-10-1 ATS (9.1%) in the follow-up outing since 2016.

Embarrassing losses have galvanized teams – In the last 11 NBA Finals series, there have been four games decided by 30 points or more. In all four cases, the team that lost bounced back with an outright and ATS win in the next game, all by double-digit margins. This happened last in 2024 as Boston (-6.5) closed out the Mavericks in Game 5, 106-88.

Other double-digit losses have carried over – In the trend above, I noted that the last three teams beaten by 30 or more bounced back well in recent NBA Finals. That is not the case for all other double-digit defeats, as teams that suffered those have gone just 13-20 SU and 12-18-3 ATS (40%) in the follow-up contest.

NBA Finals series opening games have sided with the home teams/favorites of late – Including the neutral court game of 2020, home teams/favorites are on a 10-2 SU surge (9-3 ATS, 75%) in NBA Finals Game 1s. The average margin of victory in the nine wins has been 13.9 PPG. However, OKC did lose game 1 to Indiana at home last season.

Home teams/favorites have also fared well in Game 2s of late – I just showed how well Game 1 home teams/favorites have done lately, well, they are also getting it done in Game 2, going 8-2 SU and 6-2-2 ATS (75%) in the last 10 seasons, including OKC’s 123-107 win a year ago.

Game 3s have been a momentum squelcher – The team that wins Game 2 in the last 11 NBA Finals series has gone just 4-9 SU and ATS (30.8%) in Game 3. All nine of the losses were by 9 points or more as well.

Home teams struggle in Game 4s – Game 4 hosts have gone just 3-9 SU and ATS (25%) in the NBA Finals since 2013, including last year, when Indiana (+6) dropped a 111-104 decision.

Home team Game 4s that won Game 3 are bad bets – Home teams that won their NBA Finals Game 3 are 1-5 SU and ATS (16.7%) since 2013 in Game 4.

Defense/fatigue has ruled Game 4s – The first three games of the last 10 NBA Finals series have produced 211.5 PPG on average. Game 4 has seen a significant drop to 205.3, with 11 of the last 12 going Under the total.

Teams facing elimination in Game 6 have most often bowed out – There have been eight teams that have faced elimination in Game 6 of the NBA Finals since 2013. These teams are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%) in those contests. However, Indiana did stave off elimination a year ago.

(Note that this year’s Finals matches a #2 in SA versus a #3 in New York)

Top seeds have not been an auto-cover – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is 19-12 SU but 14-14-3 ATS (50%).

#2 seeds have been the worst betting option of any seed – The record of #2 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2014 is 16-22 SU and 15-22-1 ATS (40.5%). The worst spot in this trend is after losses, 6-11-1 ATS in the last 18.

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been five teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 7-20 SU and 10-15-2 ATS (40%). When coming off wins, they are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS (12.5%). At home, they are just 3-6 SU and ATS.

Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been gold in Games 3 and later of their respective series, going 12-11 SU and 14-9 ATS (60.9%), although Indiana was 2-3 SU and ATS last June.

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been heavy Under teams – Dating back to 2018, there have been five teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their totals record: 20-5 Under (80%). They are averaging 101.6 PPG offensively in that span, well below league scoring averages.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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