We’re nearing the end of the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, April 3rd. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 3rd
NBA Best Bets Today – April 3rd
Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
I never like backing teams on the second legs of back-to-backs, but it’s hard to pass on Miami right now. The Heat have won six consecutive games, and it really feels like they’ve found something lately. Over the last 10 games, Miami is eighth in the NBA in net rating (6.6), ranking 13th in offensive rating (116.6) and sixth in defensive rating (110.0). Meanwhile, in that same 10-game span, the Grizzlies are 2-8 with a net rating of -3.2. We also saw them fire Taylor Jenkins last week, so this team is really in a rough spot right now.
Some of the post-Jenkins changes have unlocked Ja Morant, who is getting to play a little more freely and run a lot more pick-and-roll plays. However, I just can’t get on board with the thinking that Memphis should win this game by more than five points. Miami actually has a good answer for Morant in Davion Mitchell, a feisty point-of-attack defender. The team also has disciplined defensive wings that can cover Desmond Bane, plus Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware for Jaren Jackson Jr.
On top of all of that, Memphis has played a lot of basketball lately. And this Grizzlies team is 3-5 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread when playing six or more games in 10 days. So, I’m not sure they’ll even be able to take advantage of any tired legs on the Heat side. Miami is also 8-6 ATS as a home underdog this season, and that includes a 7-4 ATS mark when playing as a home ‘dog of 6 or fewer points.
Bet: Heat +5 (-118 – 1.5 units) & Heat ML (+166 – 0.5 units)
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:00 pm ET
I’m still not sure what I think of the Warriors as a Western Conference contender, but I absolutely love them tonight. Since March 1st, Golden State is 12-4 with an Efficiency Differential of +6.0. The team is seventh in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.4) since then, and Steph Curry is doing his thing lifting up the offense – including a 52-point performance against the Grizzlies on Tuesday. In that same span, the Lakers are just 9-8 with an Efficiency Differential of -2.1. Of course, some of that has to do with LeBron James’ injury absence, but the numbers also favor Golden State even since The King’s return on March 22nd.
I will say that I do believe JJ Redick is a better coach than Steve Kerr, and I would probably lean Los Angeles over Golden State in a playoff series. However, the Warriors are absolutely rolling right now and the Lakers are still adjusting on the fly and getting comfortable with one another. That should give Golden State a nice little edge in a massive national television game. The seeding in the Western Conference is still completely up in the air, and this game is huge when looking at the two games that separate these two clubs.
One other thing worth noting is that the Warriors do have some great matchups for Los Angeles. Jimmy Butler is likely going to handle the Luka Doncic assignment, and we’ll see plenty of Draymond Green on LeBron. Green is also one of the game’s best pick-and-roll defenders, so he can blow up a lot of what the Lakers want to run. I’m also not sure Los Angeles has anybody for Curry on the defensive end. Sure, you can say the same about a lot of teams, but the Lakers are a bit of a mess when it comes to point-of-attack defense. And don’t just expect 3s only from Curry. He should be able to feast when driving to the basket. Los Angeles desperately needs to figure out its rim defense.
Bet: Warriors ML (+105 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 3rd
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 pm ET
Tyrese Maxey just got ruled out for the season, so there will continue to be opportunities to go around for 76ers perimeter players the rest of the year. So, I’m keeping an eye on Justin Edwards, who averaged 14.4 points per game in March and has had seven games with at least 17 points over the last nine contests. Of course, Edwards is averaging just 9.5 points per game over the last two contests, so he has cooled down a bit. But he still played 29.5 minutes per game in those contests. So, given his ability to shoot the 3-ball (37.2% on 5.2 attempts per game in March), I’m continuing to back Edwards with his point totals. And it doesn’t hurt that Milwaukee has given up at least 123 points in three of its last four games.
Bet: Edwards Over 12.5 Points (-115 – 1.5 units)
Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 pm ET
Jamal Shead might not be on a lot of radars right now, but our VSiN NBA Prop Bet Analyzer shows that the rookie has gone Over his PRA total in six of his last seven games. Shead has just been awesome when it comes to filling up the stat sheet when given extended minutes, and Immanuel Quickely is out for Toronto this evening. Scottie Barnes is also questionable. So, there’s a real shot Shead will have a ton of on-ball reps tonight, and he’ll have it in a pretty solid matchup for guards. That said, I’m firing Shead up to have another strong game for Toronto. Let’s also hope the Raptors can find a way to pull this out, as I’m sweating out the Over 29.5 on their season win total.
Bet: Shead Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 343-345-1 (+0.47 units)
