MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, June 20.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:35 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees
Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott owns a 3.95 ERA on the season, but has been at his best recently after a shaky start, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 10 straight starts. While the Yankees lead the league in scoring at home with 5.6 runs per game, the loss of Aaron Judge may lead to a downturn in production. Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has a 3.47 ERA and an even lower 3.33 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The Reds rank 21st in road run production with 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Reds vs. Yankees Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.8
2:20 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs
Blue Jays starting pitcher Patrick Corbin has been a bit shaky recently, allowing 11 total runs over his past three starts. However, he still owns a 4.57 ERA and a 4.40 fielding independent with one home run and three walks allowed per nine innings. Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea has pitched better than his 5.35 ERA would indicate, posting a 5.03 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. He should also benefit from the wind blowing in and from facing a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 27th in road run production with fewer than 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Cubs Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.9
4:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer is putting together an excellent season with a 2.75 ERA, 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and just 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. His ERA drops to 1.97 at home. Giants starter Trevor McDonald owns a 4.64 ERA but a lower 3.87 fielding independent while allowing only 0.8 home runs per nine innings. He is backed by a Giants bullpen that ranks 17th in ERA at 4.25, while the Marlins bullpen ranks fifth at 3.43.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -136 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -161 and Total 7.4
7:15 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti owns a solid 2.57 ERA, but his 3.81 fielding independent and 4.6 walks per nine innings suggest some potential concerns. Those walks can drive up his pitch count early, which is problematic given that Houston ranks 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.72. The Guardians counter with Joey Cantillo, who owns a 4.38 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 4.5 walks allowed per nine innings. However, he is supported by a bullpen that ranks seventh in ERA since May 1 at 3.17.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline +122
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -101
9:10 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes has put together another strong season despite a few hiccups, posting a 2.85 ERA and a 2.68 fielding independent with 10.9 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a Pirates lineup that ranks fifth in the league in scoring with nearly 5.1 runs per game. The Rockies counter with Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns a respectable 4.54 ERA but a much higher 5.26 fielding independent. Sugano pitches to a lot of contact, recording only five strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings. He is also backed by a bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA in baseball at 5.11.
Pick: Pirates Run Line -1.5 (-130)
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -1.5 (-154)
10:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley enters this game in rough form, allowing at least four runs in each of his past four starts, which has pushed his ERA to 4.14. However, he is still generating 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen has endured an even rougher season, posting a 5.35 ERA with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings while recording only 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Twins lineup that ranks seventh in scoring with 4.8 runs per game, while Arizona ranks 22nd in scoring at home with 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Twins Moneyline +116 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -107 and Total 9.4
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Red Sox starting pitcher Connelly Early owns a respectable 3.81 ERA, but his 4.98 fielding independent points toward some regression. He is allowing 1.7 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings and is supported by a lineup that ranks 29th in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. Mariners starter Emerson Hancock has posted a 3.28 ERA with 8.5 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings. Seattle’s lineup also received a boost this week with J.P. Crawford and Cal Raleigh returning from injury.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -152
