We’re nearing the end of the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, March 19th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 19th
NBA Best Bets Today – March 19th
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
The Heat have lost eight games in a row, marking the longest losing streak they’ve ever had under Erik Spoelstra. Vibes definitely aren’t great inside the Miami locker room, and the Heat have fallen to 10th in the Eastern Conference standings. However, I can’t help but think this team isn’t as bad as it has shown lately, and Miami still has some time to play its way into the 7-8 Play-In Tournament game. So, I don’t see the team completely rolling over. I also love the Heat’s chances of winning tonight, as I believe they’re undervalued and the Pistons are a little overvalued.
Detroit is 38-31 and a lot of people like this team to make some noise in the playoffs. However, only 3.1 separates these teams when it comes to adjusted net rating, which really isn’t all that much. And our analytics guru Steve Makinen only has an estimated line of Pistons -3.2 tonight.
The Heat are also 12-9 against the spread and 11-10 straight-up when coming off a road loss this season. And generally speaking, they match up pretty well with the Pistons. If Andrew Wiggins is out there tonight, that’s a wing that can make Cade Cunningham fight for everything. And I trust Spoelstra to have his team dialed in off the ball after eight straight losses. So, the Heat, who are only allowing opponents to shoot 35.9% from 3 this season, should be ready to guard guys like Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. I’d also be pretty stunned if Bam Adebayo doesn’t absolutely dominate his matchup with Jalen Duren.
This is just a really good buy-low spot for Miami. And I have concerns about Detroit playing well after some road nights in New Orleans and South Beach. That said, I’m going pretty big on the Heat to cover 5.5, but I’m also putting a unit on the moneyline.
Bet: Heat +5.5 (-128 – 2 units) & Heat ML (+158)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
The Cavaliers are coming off a loss to the Clippers last night. That was a game Cleveland clearly wanted to win, and the team now has to play in Sacramento on the second night of a back-to-back. I know the Kings are going to be without Domantas Sabonis for the next week or so, but it’s hard to ignore the rest advantage Sacramento has. And that advantage is especially big considering this Kings team has the type of perimeter players that can put pressure on opposing defenses. Look for Malik Monk, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine to be pretty relentless in playing fast and being in attack-mode.
Cleveland is also just 3-6 ATS since the start of March. And under Doug Christie, Sacramento is 11-3 SU and 8-5-1 ATS when playing at home. The Kings are also 7-5 SU and 7-4-1 ATS when facing teams that outscore opponents by 3.0 or more points per game, so they have been pretty good when playing against tough opponents.
I also just wouldn’t be shocked if Kenny Atkinson holds some of Cleveland’s stars out of this one. The Cavaliers are going to be the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, so there’s no reason to risk anything moving forward.
Bet: Kings +5.5 (-118 – 1.5 units) & Kings ML (+175 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 19th
New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 pm ET
I have been backing Jaden McDaniels to go Over his combined points, rebounds and assists prop for pretty much two weeks now, and I’m just not going away from it until he turns in a complete dud. Our NBA Prop Bet Analyzer put me on this play, which shows you how valuable the tool can be. I have especially found that sorting by last seven games, or last 15 games, is the special sauce.
Anyway, McDaniels is averaging 16.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game since the start of March, and his outrageous two-way play is a big part of the reason that I feel there’s no better futures play than backing Minnesota to win the Western Conference. McDaniels has had at least 23 combined points, rebounds and assists in 13 of his last 15 games. Tonight, he gets a crack at a Pelicans team that is last in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (118.0). So, he should be in for a pretty good night offensively. And he’s generally pretty reliable on the glass.
The only thing I can see keeping McDaniels from hitting this is foul trouble or a blowout. He dealt with some foul issues last game, and guarding Zion Williamson could make it a thing tonight. But I can’t help but think that McDaniels can clear this mark in 25 or so minutes, so I’m playing it anyway.
Bet: McDaniels Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)
Chicago Bulls at Phoenix Suns – 10:00 pm ET
As a Suns fan, the early portion of the 2024-25 NBA season was fun. Phoenix was playing hard on both ends of the floor, and Ryan Dunn looked like he was our next Mikal Bridges. Then, Kevin Durant suffered a minor injury and nothing was the same. The Suns spiraled, forgot how to play with one another and Mike Budenholzer had no idea how to coach the team out of the mess. All of that led to inconsistent minutes for Dunn, who really fell out of the rotation completely — despite being one of the only guys on the team that can guard on the perimeter. Luckily, Dunn is back in the circle of trust lately. The 22-year-old has played at least 23 minutes in three consecutive games, and he’s averaging 15.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game in that span. The Suns also continue to be without Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen, so there are minutes to go around. Even Mason Plumlee’s injury positively impacts Dunn, as Phoenix can play him as a small-ball big.
As long as Dunn is getting minutes, it’s hard not to like him to produce. While he has his deficiencies offensively, teams leave him wide open to send help at Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. So, when Dunn is knocking down shots, he can easily start to do some damage as a scorer. Dunn has also gotten a lot better about cutting to the basket, and he’s even toying with some more floaters than he did early in the season.
With all of that in mind, against a Bulls team that is 24th in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency (115.6) and third in the league in pace of play (103.6), I’d be surprised if Dunn doesn’t stuff the stat sheet again.
Bet: Dunn Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Nuggets Alt +7.5 vs. Lakers & Blazers Alt +10.5 vs. Grizzlies (-147 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 307-313-3 (-3.95 units)
