The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, June 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Underdogs are on 17-5 (77.3%, +17.33 units) surge in SEA-DET h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 78.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+102 vs SEA)

Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 166-91 SU (+39.22 units, ROI: 15.3%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-114 vs KC)

Trend: Over the total is 13-0 (+13.00 units) when San Diego is favored within -115 to -165 line range against NL teams with starter Michael King since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYM-SD (o/u at 7)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 109-84 start for -1.59 units and an ROI of -0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+123 at NYY), TORONTO (-149 vs BAL), PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs CWS)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 16-15 for –3.20 units.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TAMPA BAY (-136 at MIA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 35-57 for -26.49 units and an ROI of -28.8%!
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-157 at COL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 72-85 for +9.77 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+130 vs MIL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 17-7 start for +0.97 units.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-205 vs LAA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 120-143 for -9.19 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+123 at NYY), MIAMI (+113 vs TB)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 78-91 start for -6.31 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 35-44 for -7.29 units and an ROI of -9.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – SAN FRANCISCO (+149 at CHC), KANSAS CITY (-105 at MIN)
3-games – DETROIT (+102 vs SEA)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 63-73 for -1.39 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-136 at DET), WASHINGTON (+113 at AZ)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 480-382 for +42.74 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs CWS), DETROIT (+102 vs SEA), MIAMI (+113 vs TB)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 233-176 for +18.39 units and an ROI of 4.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-123 at DET), ATHLETICS (-112 at HOU)
* WATCH FOR CLEVELAND at TEX (-131 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 408-347 but for -82.56 units and an ROI of -10.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-149 vs BAL), SAN DIEGO (-132 vs NYM)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 430-378 record for +47.71 units and an ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+149 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at PHI), BALTIMORE (+124 at TOR), NY METS (+109 at SD), LA ANGELS (+168 at LAD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2085-1973 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -265.68 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+149 at CHC), MILWAUKEE (-157 at COL), LA ANGELS (+168 at LAD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2109-2684 (44%) for -271.38 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-123 at DET), TAMPA BAY (-136 at MIA), CINCINNATI (+123 at STL), BOSTON (+123 at NYY), CLEVELAND (-131 at TEX), LA ANGELS (+168 at LAD)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 378-190 (66.5%) for +52.16 units and an ROI of 9.2%!
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-114 vs KC)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 340-303 (52.9%) for +22.34 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+130 vs MIL), ATLANTA (-144 vs PIT)

Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 166-91 SU (+39.22 units, ROI: 15.3%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-114 vs KC)

Bats revert to the mean after a high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 142-102-17 (58.2%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-CHC (o/u at 11)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 190-225 SU record for +39.02 units and an ROI of 9.4% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+130 vs MIL)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), Underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 220-252 SU but for +46.96 units (ROI: 9.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+149 at CHC, o/u at 11), COLORADO (+130 vs MIL, o/u at 12)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 300-312 run (+10.81 units, ROI: 1.8%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-132 vs NYM)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: HOUSTON -108 (+26 diff), BOSTON +123 (+18), SAN FRANCISCO +149 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -157 (+20 diff), ATLANTA -144 (+15), SAN DIEGO -132 (+15), MINNESOTA -114 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: BAL-TOR OVER 8 (+0.5), KC-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.5), TB-MIA OVER 8 (+0.5), LAA-LAD OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: ATH-HOU UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) SAN FRANCISCO (25-38) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (33-30)
Trend: SF is 24-11 (+14.24 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+149 at CHC)
Trend: CHC is 17-30 (-10.23 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs SF)

(953) PITTSBURGH (34-29) at (954) ATLANTA (42-21)
Trend: PIT is 12-26 (-10.24 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: PIT is 13-23 (-10.58 units) vs NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+119 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 19-9-2 (+9.10 units) in ATL home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-ATL (o/u at 8.5)

(959) NEW YORK-NL (27-35) at (960) SAN DIEGO (32-29)
Trend: NYM is 12-20 (-10.57 units) on the ROAD this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+109 at SD)
Trend: Over the total is 13-0 (+13.00 units) as favorites within -115 to -165 line range against NL teams with starter Michael King since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYM-SD (o/u at 7)

(961) WASHINGTON (31-32) at (962) ARIZONA (33-29)
Trend: WSH is the most profitable team in MLB on the road this season (19-12 record, +15.53 units)
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+168 at LAD)
Trend: AZ is 11-3 (+7.24 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-1.5 vs WSH)

(963) SEATTLE (33-30) at (964) DETROIT (25-38)
Trend: Under the total is 23-14-2 (+7.60 units) in SEA night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-DET (o/u at 7.5)

(969) ATHLETICS (30-32) at (970) HOUSTON (28-36)
Trend: Over the total is 20-11-1 (+7.90 units) in HOU home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-HOU (o/u at 9)

(971) KANSAS CITY (25-38) at (972) MINNESOTA (29-35)
Trend: Under the total is 17-7-1 (+9.30 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-MIN (o/u at 8.5)

(975) CHICAGO-AL (33-29) at (976) PHILADELPHIA (33-29)
Trend: PHI is 4-17 (-14.62 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs CWS)

(977) TAMPA BAY (36-23) at (978) MIAMI (29-34)
Trend: Over the total is 19-4-3 (+14.60 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-MIA (o/u at 8)

(979) LOS ANGELES-AL (24-39) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (40-23)
Trend: LAA is 0-5 (-5.00 units) vs LA Dodgers with starter Reid Detmers in his career
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+168 at LAD)

Series #4: Seattle at Detroit, Fri 6/5-Sun 6/7
Trend: Underdogs are on 17-5 (77.3%, +17.33 units) surge in SEA-DET h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 78.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+102 vs SEA)

Series #8: Milwaukee at Colorado, Fri 6/5-Sun 6/7
Trend: Home teams are 19-10 (65.5%, +4.04 units) in the last 29 games between Colorado and Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 13.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+130 vs MIL)

Series #9: Kansas City at Minnesota, Thu 6/4-Sun 6/7
Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 40-15 (72.7%, +24.08 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 43.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-114 vs KC)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-181 vs SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TEXAS (+113 vs CLE), CINCINNATI (+123 at STL), WASHINGTON (+113 at AZ)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.

System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs CWS), TAMPA BAY (-136 at MIA), LA DODGERS (-205 vs LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-CHC (o/u at 11)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

BALTIMORE    
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 12-25 (32.4%) -13.23 units, ROI: -35.8%     
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+124 at TOR)

MIAMI    
Momentum after series vs. WASHINGTON: 20-18 (52.6%) +9.42 units, ROI: 24.8% 
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+113 vs TB)

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