Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-145, 8)
The Red Sox (26-35) just dropped two of three against the Orioles, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-2 as -125 home favorites. Similarly, the Yankees (37-25) just lost two of three against the Guardians but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 2-1 as -165 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Red Sox hand the ball to righty Sonny Gray (6-1, 3.06 ERA) and the Yankees turn to lefty Ryan Weathers (2-3, 3.52 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -140 home favorite and Boston a +120 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Yankees at home, pushing New York up from -140 to -145 or even -150 at some shops across the market.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are taking in 64% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is receiving 40% of moneyline bets and 50% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Friday night favorites, like the Yankees here, are 68-37 (65%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less are 64-39 (62%) with a 10% ROI this season.
New York offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Yankees have the more productive bats, posting a .432 slugging percentage with 315 runs scored compared to Boston posting a .380 slugging percentage with 243 runs scored.
New York is 3-0 against Boston this season.
8:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 9)
The Reds (31-30) just lost two of three against the Royals, dropping the series finale 5-2 as -160 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (32-28) just dropped two of three against the Rangers but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 5-3 as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Reds send out righty Brady Singer (2-5, 6.18 ERA) and the Cardinals go with fellow righty Kyle Leahy (5-3, 4.25 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -135 home favorite and Cincinnati a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cardinals laying modest chalk at home, steaming St. Louis up from -135 to -145.
At Circa, the Cardinals are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Friday night favorites, like the Cardinals here, are 68-37 (65%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less are 64-39 (62%) with a 10% ROI this season. Friday night home favorites priced -150 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season are 55-32 (63%) with a 12% ROI since 2025.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 42-25 (63%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Leahy posted a 2.81 ERA in five May starts, allowing only 8 earned runs in 25.2 innings pitched. He has posted a 3.28 ERA at home compared to 5.04 on the road.
On the other hand, Singer posted a 7.77 ERA in five May starts (all losses), giving up 19 earned runs in 22 innings pitched. He is 0-3 with a 7.67 ERA on the road.
St. Louis is hitting .241 against righties (16th in MLB) compared to Cincinnati hitting .228 (28th).
9:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks (-135, 9)
The Nationals (31-32) just got swept by the Marlins, losing the series finale 4-1 as a -105 home dog. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks (33-29) just split a four-game series against the Dodgers, winning the series finale 3-2 as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Nationals start lefty Foster Griffin (6-2, 3.76 ERA) and the Diamondbacks tap righty Merrill Kelly (5-3, 5.06 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -130 home favorite and Washington a +110 road dog.
Sharps have subtly laid the chalk with the Snakes at home, pushing Arizona up from -130 to -135.
At DraftKings, Arizona is receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Diamondbacks are only taking in 43% of moneyline bets but 83% of moneyline dollars. Both books are displaying a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the modest home chalk.
Friday night favorites, like the Diamondbacks here, are 68-37 (65%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Home favorites priced -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 107-72 (60%) with an 8% ROI this season. Above .500 home favorites priced -140 or less facing a below .500 team are 33-19 (63%) with a 15% ROI this season.
Arizona offers additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Griffin posted a 4.86 ERA in six May starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 33.1 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Kelly posted a 3.49 ERA in six May starts, giving up 15 earned runs in 38.2 innings pitched.
The Diamondbacks are hitting .279 against lefties this season, the best in MLB.
