The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff game on 6/5. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Winners cover, period – Over the last 12 seasons, and 69 games, outright winners have gone 63-3-3 ATS (95.5%) in the NBA Finals.

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5-points or more are 29-9 SU and 24-12-2 ATS (66.7%).
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs NYK)

Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 38-20-1 (65.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

General Trends

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 21-10 SU and 18-12-1 ATS (60%) in the last 31 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs NYK)

Winners cover, period – Over the last 12 seasons, and 69 games, outright winners have gone 63-3-3 ATS (95.5%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 76 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 30 Overs, 44 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 30-13-1 (69.8%) run in the last 44 games.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

Trends by Line Range

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5-points or more are 29-9 SU and 24-12-2 ATS (66.7%).

Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs NYK)

Last Game Trends

Other double-digit losses have carried over –Teams that suffered losses in the 10-29-point double-digit range have gone just 13-20 SU and 12-18-3 ATS (40%) in the follow-up contest.
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs NYK)

Trends by Game Number

Home teams/favorites have also fared well in Game 2s of late –In Game 2, home teams/favorites have gone 8-2 SU & 6-2-2 ATS (75%) in the last 10 seasons including OKC’s 123-107 win a year ago.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs NYK)

Trends by Seed Number
#2 seeds have been the worst betting option of any seed – The record of #2 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2014 is 16-23 SU and 15-23-1 ATS (39.5%). The worst spot in this trend is after losses, 6-11-1 ATS in the last 18.
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs NYK)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 50-12 SU and 40-26 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games over the last four Seasons
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs NYK)

* NBA teams playing at home in 4th in 10+ Days scenario were 27-14 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 67-32 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three Seasons
Systems Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s game:

(503) NEW YORK at (504) SAN ANTONIO
* Uare 5-5 SU but 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the Knicks-Spurs non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+6.5 at SAS)
* Over the total is on extended 12-3-1 run in the series at San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 196-75 SU and 156-114-1 ATS (57.8%) run.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs NYK)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 190-131 SU & 179-135-7 ATS (57%) since ’21.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+6.5 at SAS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 38-20-1 (65.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 87-113-1 ATS (43.5%) in the next game, including 43-58 ATS (42.6%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+6.5 at SAS)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 11:45 PM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, & total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (+6.5 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and a ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (+6.5 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (+6.5 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and a ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK ML (+190 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and a ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +6.5 (+1.7)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +6.5 (+2.1)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-SAS UNDER 216.5 (-2.3)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +6.5 (+1.2)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-SAS UNDER 216.5 (-1.7)

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