The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 52-45-1 (53.6%). Here are today’s results: 

– CHI-SAC OVER 233
DK Betting Splits system #13, three scheduling situations, and both Makinen ratings projections favor Over 

– BROOKLYN (+8.5 at IND)
Three DK Betting Splits systems and Makinen Effective Strength ratings projections favor BKN and extreme stat system #2 fades IND

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is 12-3 in the last 15 of Raptors-Warriors head-to-head nonconference series at Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-GSW (o/u at 225.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 34-89 SU and 48-71-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+7.5 vs. NYK)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, NEW YORK, TORONTO, MILWAUKEE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, TORONTO, MILWAUKEE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MILWAUKEE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – INDIANA ML, SACRAMENTO ML, LA LAKERS ML 

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-IND, CHI-SAC, TOR-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): CHI-SAC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 34-43 SU BUT 44-32-3 ATS (57.9%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
3/20: CHICAGO at Sacramento
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+7 at SAC) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 45-30 SU and 43-29-3 ATS (59.7%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/20: SACRAMENTO vs. Chicago
Systems Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-7 vs. CHI)

* Over the total was 21-12 (63.6%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a head-to-head b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
3/20: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-CHICAGO
Systems Match (PLAY): CHI-SAC (o/u at 233) 

* CHARLOTTE is 34-89 SU and 48-71-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on OneDayRest
3/20: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. New York
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+7.5 vs. NYK) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 51-47 SU and 38-57-3 ATS skid in last 98 when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/20: Fade MILWAUKEE at La Lakers
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-3.5 at LAL) 

* NEW YORK is on 28-23 SU and 32-19 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
3/20: NEW YORK at Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 246-45 SU but just 135-150-6 ATS (47.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): GOLDEN STATE (-14 vs. TOR) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 106-88 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 210-167 (55.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 267-209 (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-GSW (o/u at 225.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 242-132 SU but 171-195-8 ATS (46.7%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-8.5 vs. BKN)

Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 76-55 SU and 68-61-2 ATS (52.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-8.5 vs. BKN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 305-258 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-IND (o/u at 225)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+2.5)
2. CHICAGO +7 (+1.8)
3. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: GOLDEN STATE -14 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+4.3)
2. CHICAGO +7 (+2.6)
3. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: GOLDEN STATE -14 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-SAC OVER 233 (+1.9)
2(tie). TOR-GSW OVER 225.5 (+0.1)
MIL-LAL OVER 226.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-CHA UNDER 222 (-2.3)
2. BKN-IND UNDER 223.5 (-1.7) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA LAKERS +3.5 (+3.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA -8.5 (+1.9)
2. SACRAMENTO -7 (+0.3)
3(tie). NEW YORK -7.5 (+0.2)
GOLDEN STATE -14 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-SAC OVER 233 (+4.3)
2. TOR-GSW OVER 225.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-IND UNDER 223.5 (-3.2)
2. NYK-CHA UNDER 222 (-1.8)
3. MIL-LAL UNDER 226.5 (-1.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(551) BROOKLYN at (552) INDIANA
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the BKN-IND head-to-head series at Indiana
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(553) NEW YORK at (554) CHARLOTTE
* NEW YORK is 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head games versus Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS 

(557) TORONTO at (558) GOLDEN STATE
* Over the total is 12-3 in the last 15 of the TOR-GSW head-to-head non-conference series at Golden State
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(559) MILWAUKEE at (560) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the MIL-LAL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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