On Friday, April 17, the Phoenix Suns will host the Golden State Warriors in a game that will decide the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference in the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs. The winner of this contest will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder, so these two are very likely competing to get bludgeoned in the opening round. However, that won’t stop either of them from competing. The Suns are hoping to avoid being the first No. 7 seed in Play-In Tournament history to miss the postseason entirely, while Stephen Curry and Draymond Green just want another taste of playoff basketball.
Keep reading for Suns vs Warriors odds and predictions, and make sure you come back to VSiN throughout the course of the NBA Playoffs. We’ll have previews of every single series and daily best bets/player props. We’ll also have betting trends and insights from our analytics guru Steve Makinen. Of course, we’ll also be talking about all of this on our live programming too! It’s a great time to be a VSiN subscriber, so make sure you check out our subscription options.
How To Watch Suns vs. Warriors
Where: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona
When: 10:00 pm ET on Friday, April 17
Channel: Prime Video
Suns vs. Warriors Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Thursday, April 16 at 7:00 pm ET)
Moneyline: Suns -148, Warriors +124
Spread: Suns -3.5 (-102), Warriors +3.5 (-118)
Total: Over 219.5 (-112), Under 219.5 (-108)
Suns vs. Warriors Prediction
The Suns were third in the NBA in opponent turnovers per game (16.3) during the regular season. They can really go out there and cause some chaos for opponents, and the Warriors averaged more turnovers per game (15.7) than anyone but the Trail Blazers and Nets this season. With that in mind, there is a world in which Phoenix’s defense tortures a lackadaisical Golden State team, allowing the Suns, who are struggling offensively, to get some easy buckets and ease into this game.
Phoenix was also better than Golden State when looking at both ends of the floor this season, ranking 16th in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (114.4) and 10th in adjusted defensive rating (113.2). Meanwhile, the Warriors were down at 19th in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (114.2) and 15th in adjusted defensive rating (114.3).
You also have to consider that the Suns will be playing a second game in a row at home, meaning they have had a little extra rest and zero travel to deal with.
Despite all of that, I don’t have any interest in backing Phoenix in this game. Golden State just gutted out a tremendous win in Los Angeles, with Stephen Curry pouring in 35 points, the big man combo of Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford going 6 for 11 from three, and all the other role players stepping up. We saw the championship pedigree of this Warriors team, and I just don’t trust the Suns to go out there and step on their necks.
Phoenix has been a lousy halfcourt offense for months now, which only adds to the uncertainty surrounding this game. Say what you want about Golden State’s offense, but this is a team that plays tough in-your-face defense at the point of attack. The Warriors also have plenty of capable rim protectors at the back of the defense. That said, the Suns are going to have to work for absolutely everything here, and that means Devin Booker can’t afford to turn in another stinker. He had only 22 points in a loss to the Blazers in the 7-8 game the other night, shooting 7 for 17 from the floor and 0 for 2 from three. He also missed five free throws in that game, and just making another two of those might have meant winning. But things won’t be much easier for Booker in terms of quality of looks in this game. The Warriors have a bunch of rock-solid perimeter defenders.
I just don’t feel comfortable taking either side in this game. Also, while I’d lean towards going Under on the total, these Play-In Tournament games have been higher in scoring than expected. So, the only thing I’m willing to fire up here is another prop play on Gui Santos.
I had Santos to go Over 15.5 points and rebounds in Wednesday’s meeting with the Clippers. Well, he finished with 20 points, six rebounds, and five assists. Santos just continues to make his mark on the box score, and I’m going to hope he does it in the three major categories here. I’m going Over on 20.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists, which is something he has hit in 14 of the last 19 games. Also, in those 19 games, Santos averaged 16.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. I’ll also note that the last time Santos faced the Suns was back on February 5, when he had 18 points, seven assists, and four rebounds. I simply like this matchup for a player like him, as he’s always active, he’s a smart player, and he’s a bit of an afterthought when considering the scouting report.
Best Bet: Gui Santos Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108)
