Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4 Pick, Prediction, Odds
The Thunder put on a clinic in a Game 3 win over the Spurs in the 2025-26 Western Conference Finals. After falling behind 15-0, Oklahoma City was flawless on both ends of the floor. The team will now look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead when the teams meet in San Antonio for Game 4. Will the Spurs find a way to even things up? Find out in our Thunder vs. Spurs betting preview. Also check out our VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our NBA postseason content.
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How To Watch Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4
When: 8:00 pm ET on Sunday, May 24
Where: Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas
Channel: NBC/Peacock
Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4 Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 am ET on Friday, May 22
Moneyline: Spurs -142, Thunder +120
Spread: Spurs -2.5 (-115), Thunder +2.5 (-105)
Total: Over 219.5 (-110), Under 219.5 (-110)
Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4 Picks
Heading into Game 4, it’s hard not to lean towards the San Antonio side, even if it’s not an official play. The Spurs look like the sharper team, with our Circa betting splits showing a majority of the action on Oklahoma City but the line moving towards San Antonio. After opening as a 2-point favorite, Circa now has the Spurs at -2.5. On top of that, San Antonio is a little healthier entering this one. While the Spurs will have players playing through injuries, they’ll have all of their rotation pieces available. You can’t say the same for the Thunder, who are already missing Ajay Mitchell. It also seems like Oklahoma City will be without Jalen Williams.
The Spurs also have some changes they can make to give themselves a better shot here. The main one is that San Antonio can try more one-on-one coverage on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which is something you should really expect heading into this one. The Spurs have been paying too close of attention to Gilgeous-Alexander, leaving the Thunder role players wide open for shooting-practice triples. And with Oklahoma City shooting extremely well, that’s simply not something Mitch Johnson can continue to do. That might have worked earlier in the season — and in previous seasons — but the presence of Jared McCain has changed the Thunder offense. The Spurs need to let Gilgeous-Alexander be more of a scorer and focus on taking everyone else out of this series.
Considering that looks to be the obvious adjustment for the Spurs, the one play to make tonight is the Over on Gilgeous-Alexander’s point total. While 28.5 is certainly a high number, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.8 points per game in the 79 total games he has played this season. He has also gone Over 28.5 points in 51 of the 79 games he has played. This number might be high for other players, but it’s not for the reigning MVP. So, with Gilgeous-Alexander having absolutely picked this Spurs defense apart as a passer, expect him to have more opportunities to isolate. And while he will be going up against some sturdy on-ball defenders, his bag is good enough for him to hang a big number on whoever he’s working against.
Another prop that’s worth sprinkling here is Cason Wallace to go Over 1.5 made threes. Wallace was fortunate to go Over this number in Game 3, but he has still made at least two triples in five of the last six games — and three consecutive contests. Wallace has just been locked in defensively, allowing 0.67 points per drive when guarding ball-handlers in the Western Conference Finals. As long as he’s doing that, Mark Daigneault can’t afford to sit him too long. That, along with the injuries to some other Thunder guards and wings, is why Wallace is averaging 27.0 minutes per game in this series. And as long as Wallace is getting that kind of playing time, he’s a good play at plus-money odds to knock down a few triples. There’s too much for the Spurs to have to worry about to really prioritize icing Wallace out. So, he should continue to see quality looks in this series.
Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 Points (-125)
Bet: Wallace Over 1.5 Made Threes (+140 – 0.5 units)
