DIVISION PREVIEW

The AFC East has lost some of its luster with the demolition of Miami’s roster in the offseason, but the two heavyweights at the top of the projected standings still give this division some verve heading into the 2026 regular season.

New England looks to defend its division title against Buffalo after stealing it from the Bills and snapping their streak of five consecutive AFC East titles. Drake Maye is poised to potentially compete for an MVP once again, and Josh Allen nearly always finds himself in the mix for the award. Maye is 11/1 to win it and Allen is the favorite.

Buffalo is the favorite to win the division (-125) at DraftKings, and many expect New England to regress after a season in which it played one of the easiest schedules in recent history. Still, the Patriots landed one of the biggest fish in the offseason in wide receiver A.J. Brown, and with a win total of 10.5 there are market expectations of success for the reigning AFC champions.

While both the Bills and Patriots compete with a Super Bowl in mind, the two other division members find themselves dueling only with mediocrity.

New York enters its second season under Aaron Glenn with a new offensive coordinator and new quarterback in Geno Smith. The Jets set records with their futility on defense a season ago, and this season looks to be no better, as they hold a win total of 5.5 and are -1100 to miss the playoffs.

In Miami, the Dolphins are entering a new era under first-time NFL head coach Jeff Hafley and free-agent quarterback Malik Willis. But, with one of the hardest schedules in the league, the expectations for Miami are that it will be focusing on the 2027 Draft earlier than most.

BUFFALO BILLS

Regular-season success has become the norm in Buffalo, but despite seven consecutive seasons of 10 or more wins, this was an offseason of change for the Bills. Longtime head coach Sean McDermott was fired and Joe Brady – the team’s offensive coordinator since 2023 – was given the task of breaking through in the AFC. Buffalo will also christen its new stadium this season.

Still, expectations remain the same. Josh Allen is the favorite to win MVP, Buffalo is the favorite to win the AFC East and the second choice to win the AFC. Whether the team achieves its lofty goals remains to be seen, but it is guaranteed that anything short of a Super Bowl victory would be a disappointment in western New York.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

What does the addition of DJ Moore do for the Bills’ offense?

One of the constant questions over the last few seasons has been the depth of the Bills’ wide receiver room. There has not been a 1,000-yard receiver in Buffalo the last two seasons, as Khalil Shakir led the team with 821 yards in 2024 and 719 yards in 2025.

To remedy the error, the Bills’ front office elected to trade for DJ Moore. The former first-rounder is a recognizable name, but there is no denying his statistical decline. Moore has failed to eclipse 1,000 yards himself in three of the last four seasons, and, in 2025, he did not reach the century mark in a single game. He joins a depth chart that still has Shakir, along with Keon Coleman, who caught just 38 balls for 404 yards, and Josh Palmer. The rest of the projected depth chart at wide receiver caught a grand sum of 18 passes in 2025.

Buffalo finished last season fourth in yards per play (5.9), third in scoring (28.3), and third in EPA per play on offense (+0.12) (Sumer Sports). Much of that production is due to the presence of Allen and a powerful rushing attack led by James Cook. But once again, the Bills enter a season with questions about how their wide receiver room will hold up, and at the top of the depth chart is a wide receiver who is declining with enormous pressure on his shoulders to buoy a position group that desperately needs to stay healthy.

What do all of the changes in personnel and staff do to Buffalo’s defense?

McDermott’s departure means there is a new voice calling the plays for the Bills’ defense. Jim Leonhard assumes the role for Brady this season after spending the last two years with the Broncos in various roles. Leonhard is reportedly installing a new defensive scheme for Buffalo, shifting the team into a 3-4 base as opposed to the 4-3 scheme it ran under McDermott.

Edge rushers Joey Bosa and A.J. Epenesa, as well as cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Taron Johnson, all departed in the offseason. That is over 2,600 snaps played for the Bills’ defense in 2025 that are out the door. The unit, which finished 15th in opponent EPA per play, is making a major transition and dealing with an exodus of production from last season.

Does Joe Brady actually make the Buffalo Bills better?

It could be argued that McDermott needed to be fired, but the reality is that Brady had been on McDermott’s staff the previous three seasons. Does the offensive coordinator of the failed head coach from the previous season actually bring the change needed?

Brady will reportedly continue to call plays despite being a first-time head coach. That alone is an issue. He was also the coordinator full-time over the last two seasons, a timeframe which coincides with the absence of a 1,000-yard receiver for Buffalo’s offense.

Head coaches add wins at the margins. McDermott’s biggest weakness was arguably as a game manager (13 seconds). Does Brady make better decisions in that role than McDermott did? That question will be answered, but it is unknown at this point in the regime.

Bills Win Total Pick – Under 10.5

Buffalo’s baseline of production over the last seven seasons has been at least 10 wins, and the team can still achieve that mark and stay Under its win total. The Bills’ strength of schedule is average – 14th according to Warren Sharp’s rankings – but there are some landmines. Look no further than Weeks 12-16, where the Bills must face five opponents with a win total of at least 9.5 and three of those are on the road. With a first-time head coach and potentially weaker defense, it’s hard to recommend laying a price on 11 or more wins.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami enters a new era this season. Gone are Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel. In their place are free-agent acquisition Malik Willis and first-time NFL head coach Jeff Hafley. Both come from Green Bay, and the Dolphins’ front office – led by former Packers VP of Player Personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan – is hoping to capture the consistent winning culture that is a norm in Wisconsin.

Roster turnover is the theme for Miami. It has a new quarterback, new head coach and a litany of position groups which have been gutted. All of that must come together in 2026 and take on the second-hardest schedule in the NFL by opponent win total.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

What does the second stint as a starter look like for Malik Willis?

Willis earned his three-year, $67.5 million deal from Miami by playing extremely well in a backup role for the Packers over the last two seasons. In 118 dropbacks, he went 70-of-89 (78.7%) for 972 yards (10.9 YPA) with six touchdowns and just one turnover-worthy play. He was much improved from his first season in Tennessee, in which he completed 50.8% of his pass attempts for 4.5 yards per attempt with three interceptions.

Bobby Slowik will serve as offensive coordinator for Willis this season. Slowik served in the same role for the Houston Texans from 2023-24. His offensive system is derived from the Shanahan zone-blocking scheme that generally gets the most out of its quarterbacks. De’Von Achane should thrive in this system, but is it fair to be overly optimistic about Willis given the lack of skill-position talent and a play-caller who was fired from the same role just two years ago?

Will the new personnel improve Miami’s defense?

Miami went all in on changing its roster from last season. In all, 30 new players have been added to this team. Many of them will play on defense. Joshua Uche and David Ojabo were brought in along the edge to help young pass-rusher Chop Robinson, and both Darrell Baker Jr. and Lonnie Johnson Jr. were brought into the defensive backfield.

The Dolphins finished 27th in opponent EPA per play in 2025 and were average at best in both total sacks (39) and pressure rate (21.3%). Where they really struggled was on the back end, where they allowed the ninth-most yards after catch (2,015) and 11th-most passing touchdowns (29). Hafley will call the team’s defense this season, so its success will rest on his shoulders. The Packers finished fifth in defensive efficiency in 2024 and 22nd in 2025, so where the Dolphins land this season will be anyone’s guess with so many changes.

How bad will it get with one of the toughest schedules in the league?

Twelve of Miami’s contests will be against opponents with win totals of at least 9.5 wins, and seven of those foes have win totals of 10.5, with division rivals New England and Buffalo among them. As it stands, they will be an underdog in almost every game this season, save for a home game against the Jets potentially. Miami owns the second-highest odds to finish with the worst record in the league (+350) and is 14/1 to make the playoffs. The market expectation is that it will not handle this difficult schedule well.

Dolphins Win Total Pick – Under 4.5

The outlook for the 2026 season is bleak for Miami. Malik Willis was a big win in free agency, but there is no denying the questions that remain about the legitimacy of his success in Green Bay. While Willis played well, it came on a sample size of less than 120 dropbacks over two seasons. He is also throwing to arguably the least talented group of pass-catchers in the NFL.

On the other side of the football, there is a dearth of talent. There is no true edge-rusher who can dominate at the line of scrimmage, and the defensive backfield has been pieced together with short-term signings. Coupled with the schedule that is loaded with playoff-caliber opponents and some of the best signal-callers in the league, it would seem unlikely the Dolphins find their way to five or more wins.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

There is no denying the bright future of the New England Patriots. Drake Maye finished second in MVP voting last season, and he led the franchise back to the Super Bowl, although the result was less than inspiring for Patriots fans and backers.

The franchise had to navigate some turbulence in the offseason due to the moral failings of head coach Mike Vrabel, but expectations remain high after winning the conference in 2025. Many would argue the success of the team was tied directly to its schedule. The Patriots have a great opportunity to prove the detractors wrong in 2026 with a tougher schedule and a new star on offense.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

How will the influx of talent at the skill positions manifest for the Patriots’ offense?

New England’s offense finished first last season in total EPA (140.69) and EPA per play (0.13). Yes, the Patriots faced a litany of basement-dwelling defenses in their run to the top seed in the AFC, but then followed that season up with a strong offseason of investments.

Wide receiver Romeo Doubs signed a four-year, $68 million contract in free agency, and the organization flipped a 2028 first-round pick for wide receiver A.J. Brown. Brown’s presence as a top receiver is an immediate upgrade after the loss of Stefon Diggs, New England’s leader in targets (102), catches (85) and receiving yards (1,013) in 2025.

Brown is a perfect fit for Maye as well. Maye was second in pass completions of 20+ yards (41) and third in PFF pass grading on such throws (97.4). Brown was tied for ninth among receivers in deep targets (25) last season, caught four touchdowns on those targets – sixth-most in the league – and sported a 95.6 PFF receiving grade on deep targets.

Can Drake Maye follow up his breakout season?

Maye’s second year in the NFL was incredible. He led the league in completion percentage (72.0%), yards per attempt (8.9), adjusted yards per attempt (9.5), passer rating (113.5), QBR (77.1) and total EPA. Despite that, he finished second in MVP voting to Stafford. Maye is 11/1 at DraftKings to finish the job this season, but he faces some challenges.

While Maye deserves credit for handling the schedule that the Patriots were given, it was still one of the easiest in recent history. The Patriots faced just two teams which finished better than 14th in opponent EPA per play in the regular season. In the team’s postseason run, its four opponents all finished seventh or higher. As a result, Maye’s performance cratered. He completed just 58.3% of his passes, threw six touchdowns with four interceptions, and the Patriots averaged just 14.3 points per game.

Maye will face five teams that finished 10th or higher in opponent EPA per play last season. Three more finished in the top half of the league. Was the playoff run for Maye an aberration, or will he prove his detractors correct against a tougher schedule?

Will the defense regress with a tougher schedule of opponents?

The same criticism could be made of New England’s defense. The Patriots finished the 2025 season 11th in opponent EPA per play (-0.05) and opponent EPA per pass (-0.06). New England also faced just one opponent – Buffalo – that finished higher than 13th in EPA per play.

This season, the Patriots’ defense will have six contests against foes which finished last season 10th or better in EPA per play. Two other opponents – Kansas City and Jacksonville – finished 11th and 12th, respectively, in the same category. This season will be a much stiffer test for this unit. A statistical step back should be expected by most entering this year.

Patriots Win Total Pick – Under 10.5

New England has every sign of a team that will regress. The Patriots outperformed their Pythagorean win total by about 1.5 wins last season. Add in the tougher slate of opponents – they have the 12th-ranked strength of schedule according to projected win totals – and one should expect New England to be much closer to the middle of the pack in 2026.

NEW YORK JETS

It was a somewhat humiliating season in Aaron Glenn’s first time at the helm in New York. The Jets won just three games, and Glenn’s defense – the aspect of the game in which he is supposed to specialize – finished dead last in pass defense and did not intercept a single pass all season.

The Jets seemingly acquired their signal-caller for the 2026 season when they traded for Geno Smith. But, if Smith continues to play at the same level he did in Las Vegas, will New York actually give him a leash long enough to last the entire season? There is almost nowhere to go but up for New York this season, but things do not look promising for Gang Green.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

How does the quarterback position play out for New York?

Smith posted the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate (4.1%) since his rookie season in 2025, and his 17 interceptions were the second-worst mark of his career. Smith averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt on an average depth of target of just 6.9 yards downfield as well, both also the worst numbers he’s put up in his time in the NFL. One could argue Smith was under duress – he was responsible for just 11.5% of pressures, the 10th-best rate among qualified quarterbacks – and that a better system will see him revert back to his form in a Seahawks uniform. Is that better system truly in New York?

The Jets don’t have any reliable options outside of Smith. They drafted Cade Klubnik in the fourth round, and the rest of their depth chart currently consists of Brady Cook and Bailey Zappe. If Smith is poor once again, it seems this will be another season of quarterback hell for New York.

The defense is going to be better, right?

It cannot be worse. The Jets finished 30th in opponent EPA per play (0.13), 31st in total sacks (26) and 32nd in opponent EPA per pass (0.25), pressure rate (15.1%), passing touchdowns allowed (36), interceptions (0) and total turnovers forced (4).

Unsurprisingly, the front office invested money and assets via both free agency and trades on that side of the football. Defensive end Joseph Ossai and linebacker Demario Davis were two of the higher-profile free-agent signings. Defensive linemen David Onyemata and Kingsley Enagbare, as well as corner Nahshon Wright, were brought in on short-term deals as well. The big splash was the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick via trade.

How much do these pieces realistically improve New York? Ossai has not registered more than five sacks in a season. Davis is a fine run defender, but allowed 45 receptions on 48 targets and 8.1 yards per reception last season. It’s nearly impossible to turn in another season akin to what the Jets did in 2025, but it’s hard to envision a leap into the top 20 defenses in the league.

Will the special teams magic continue?

Yes, special teams, but this truly does matter for New York. The Jets were the best special teams unit in the NFL last season. By DVOA standards, they were first (10.2%) and well ahead of another elite unit in the Seahawks (8.6%) by a decent margin.

New York led the league in field goal percentage (96.6%), average kickoff return distance (29.9), made all of their extra-point attempts (22-of-22), and were tied for the league lead in special teams touchdowns (3). Chris Banjo is back as the team’s special teams coordinator, so the Jets should once again be on top of the league here. For a team begging for wins, having an elite special teams unit could be the difference in a win-total decision.

Jets Win Total Pick – Over 5.5

It might seem psychotic to expect success for New York, but this is a minuscule hump to get over. Smith did put up solid numbers in Las Vegas on the snaps he was kept clean – 75.6% completion rate and 14 touchdowns on 7.4 yards per attempt. The defense cannot be worse, and the special teams – while not being historically great again – will likely be one of the best in the league. Add in the fifth-easiest schedule in the league and the Jets should be able to reach six wins.