DIVISION PREVIEW

What an offseason it has been in the AFC North. Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor is the only tenured head coach in the division after Kevin Stefanski was fired by the Browns and what we’ll call an “amicable breakup” took place between Mike Tomlin and the Steelers and John Harbaugh and the Ravens.

Todd Monken, Mike McCarthy, and Jesse Minter are the new head coaches in that order and Taylor begins his eighth season at the helm sitting in the chair in his office with a flame-retardant suit on. That said, Taylor, McCarthy, and Minter were cheering in solidarity on June 1 when the Browns traded Myles Garrett to the Rams, sending the future Hall of Famer and single-season sack leader to the NFC West. That was easily the biggest transaction in the division, as pretty much everybody believed that Aaron Rodgers returning to the Steel City was a given.

With Cleveland’s division title drought turning 37 this year, or 34 if we exclude the three years when slimeball Art Modell moved the team to Baltimore, it looks like something of a three-team race in the division. The Steelers were the only team to finish with a winning record last season, as the Ravens went 8-9 and the Bengals only had a half-season of Joe Burrow en route to finishing 6-11. The Browns finished last for the 15th time since the NFL went to the current division format in 2002, this time at 5-12.

In an ever-changing NFL world, the AFC North felt like something of a constant up until this year. Harbaugh and Tomlin were going to win a lot of games and Taylor’s fate was tied to Burrow’s health. Outside of two 11-win outliers, the Browns have been pretty projectable. This season, it feels like anything could happen. One established team went the veteran route. Another established team got younger on the sideline and seems even younger when you think about 30-year-old OC Declan Doyle telling 29-year-old QB Lamar Jackson what to do.

Despite the coaching changes, the Ravens (-115) and Steelers (+500) still have the highest floors of any AFC North team and you could argue that they have the highest ceilings as well, unless the Bengals (+200) can get a full season of Burrow and the Browns (19/1) borrow a time machine to take Deshaun Watson back to 2020.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

On September 13, the Ravens will play their first regular season game without John Harbaugh as their head coach since the 2007 season. Tenure as a coach or manager in any sport is hard to come by these days and seeing such an accomplished leader on a different sideline will be jarring for a while. But, the Ravens, and Harbaugh, felt like the team needed a change. The 2012 Super Bowl champs haven’t been back since and only won more than one playoff game twice over Harbaugh’s 18 years.

So, while it may seem like an incredulous decision, the hiring of Jesse Minter, who is almost 20 years younger than Harbaugh, represents a true changing of the guard and also falls in line with what we’re seeing across the league as a whole. Minter, who coached in the Ravens organization from 2017-20, has never been a head coach at any level, but he’s long been viewed as a rising star.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

How different will the Ravens look?

Minter was a defensive assistant and defensive backs coach under Harbaugh and also worked under John’s brother, Jim, at Michigan and with the Chargers, serving as defensive coordinator for two years at each of those stops. This won’t be some enormous change of direction for Baltimore and the overall goals will remain the same.

However, the hiring of Declan Doyle as offensive coordinator is where we could see the new-look Ravens on display. Doyle is only 30 years old and just 10 months older than QB Lamar Jackson. While Doyle didn’t call plays for the Bears last season under Ben Johnson, his game-day responsibilities and adjustments led to seven comeback wins. Now he’s got a two-time MVP QB to work with and a Hall of Fame running back as a very strong branch of the Sean Payton coaching tree. Make of that what you will, given what Payton did with Drew Brees and what he’s more recently done with Bo Nix, who has 175 rushing attempts in two seasons.

How about another changing of the guard(s)?

Yes, a big changing of the guard took place on the coaching staff, but the Ravens have had a big changing of the guards on the offensive line. Jackson was sacked 36 times in just 13 games last season after being sacked 23 times in 17 games in 2024. Derrick Henry had 2.8 yards before contact per attempt last season, down from 3.1 the season before. While Henry still led the league in runs of 20+ yards for the second straight season, he did go down from 5.9 YPC to 5.2 YPC from Year 1 to Year 2 in Baltimore.

The Ravens had atrocious guard play last season, finishing 32nd in pass block win rate at that position. In an effort to fix that, the Ravens reunited with John Simpson, who was the starter at left guard in 2023, and took Olaivavega Ioane with the 14th overall pick. Guard and tackle play will be that much more important with center Tyler Linderbaum in Las Vegas.

Do the Ravens have the right edge on defense?

There are some dull days now and then in the NFL, but March 11 was not one of them. After completing a blockbuster deal to get Maxx Crosby from the Raiders, the Ravens rescinded the trade and backed out of it based on Crosby’s physical. Immediately, they pivoted and signed Trey Hendrickson to a four-year deal.

Baltimore had 54 sacks in 2024, second to the Broncos, but only 30 sacks in 2025, tied for 27th. Their 19% Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference was 28th. In drafting Zion Young, the Ravens got the complement to Hendrickson, who really should only be used as a pass rusher, while Young can play the edge better as a run-stopper. With an astute defensive mind like Minter and a solid DC and longtime defensive assistant in Anthony Weaver, this side of the ball is substantially better on paper.

Ravens 2026 Win Total Pick – Over 11.5

With additional pre-snap motion from Doyle’s offensive scheme, Jackson returning to his 2024 production is not out of the question and improved interior offensive line play can only help Henry. Similarly, the Ravens, who always have a tremendous eye for defensive fit and talent, look poised to be able to rotate in a lot of guys for max productivity. The schedule is quite soft at the start for the team to settle in as well.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

If there was a betting market for “Last AFC North Head Coach Standing”, how many people would have bet on Zac Taylor? The other three teams all have new head coaches, but the Bengals do not, as Taylor begins his eighth season at the helm. Outside of the AFC Championship in 2021, it feels like it has been a disappointing tenure, with just two double-digit winning seasons and a 6-11 showing last year.

Of course, the success of a coach is often tied to the health of the starting QB. Joe Burrow only started eight games last season and has only played three full seasons out of six since he was drafted first overall in 2020. Burrow’s health is hardly the only question in Cincy, but is undoubtedly the biggest one.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Is the best defense really a good offense?

It might have to be for the Bengals. You can’t spell defense without “D” or “F” and those would be the grades that many would have slapped on the 2025 Bengals. First-year DC Al Golden took over for highly scrutinized Lou Anarumo and his unit nearly allowed 500 points. The Bengals were 30th in points allowed, 32nd in yards per play, 31st in yards per carry, and 28th in third down conversion rate against.

Sure, we can point to Burrow’s absence, but the Bengals had the fourth-best average starting field position against and still finished 27th in points per drive allowed. The acquisition of Dexter Lawrence for the 10th overall pick was a bit of a shocker, but Lawrence joins Jonathan Allen, edge rusher Boye Mafe, and safety Bryan Cook in hopes of fixing the worst defense of Taylor’s tenure. This is Golden’s first NFL DC gig after a very successful stint at Notre Dame from 2022-24.

What is the definition of insanity?

The quote that we all cite, which is wrongfully attributed to Albert Einstein, says that the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result. If you look at the depth chart for the Bengals, nothing has changed on offense. Orlando Brown Jr. and Dalton Risner were re-signed on the offensive line and the skill group looks the same. Ja’Marr Chase is undoubtedly elite, but Tee Higgins, despite being a Pro Bowler, fell short of 900 yards for the second time in his career and only had 59 catches.

Chase Brown had more than 300 touches with under five yards per touch. After Chase’s 185 targets, Higgins had 98 and Brown had 88. Andrei Iosivas was next with 58. Even in Burrow’s full season back in 2024, the Bengals were just eighth in yards per play while sitting second in pass attempts. They were ninth in percentage of drives ending with points. This is a good offense, but has it plateaued? Have we seen the ceiling? Do they really believe running basically the same thing back is enough with what will be a below-average defense?

How hot is Zac Taylor’s seat?

Coaching uncertainty can permeate a locker room, as everybody is on edge wondering if this loss will be the one that gets a guy fired. Burrow has been hurt a lot, but the Bengals are 19-16 in his last 35 starts. Even when he played the full 2024 season and led the league in completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, first downs, and passing yards per game, the team went 9-8 with a +38 point differential. He’s a two-time Comeback Player of the Year.

At some point, injuries or not, this has to fall on Taylor. In the Taylor/Burrow era, both the OC and DC have been replaced. The team has had a bottom-five rushing offense in each of the last four seasons. The defense has been subpar basically the entire time he’s been there. If a genie granted Taylor three wishes, they’d all be for Burrow to stay healthy, but only Andy Reid, Sean McVay, and Kyle Shanahan have had longer tenures than Taylor. Results need to come soon.

Bengals 2026 Win Total Pick – Under 9.5

The Bengals are favored in 15 of 17 games per the early DraftKings lines, but there are a few toss-up games lined at 1.5 or 2.5. Burrow turns 30 in December and he’s already dealt with several significant injuries. While the Bengals did address three positions of need on defense, this still feels like a “stars and scrubs” team short on depth and short on margin for error.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Kevin Stefanski did things that Browns coaches haven’t done in a long time. First, he took the team to the playoffs twice, making him the first head coach since Marty Schottenheimer in 1985-88 to lead multiple postseason appearances. Second, Stefanski’s six seasons at the helm were the most for a Browns head coach since Sam Rutigliano from 1978-84. He was fired eight games into the ‘84 season, which pushed Schottenheimer into the role.

An organization well accustomed to futility will now go in a different direction with former Ravens OC Todd Monken, whose only prior head coaching experience came during a three-year stint at Southern Miss over a decade ago.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Who the f*#$ is going to start at quarterback?

Want to have a bad NFL team? Have a bad QB room. The Browns certainly have that, as Deshaun Watson might be the leader in the clubhouse for the starting gig as things currently stand, even though he hasn’t played a game since October 2024 after suffering a torn Achilles, an injury that many wished was the end of his time with the Browns.

Shedeur Sanders didn’t show much over seven starts and one relief outing with a 7/10 TD/INT ratio and just a 56.6% completion rate with 175 passing yards per game. Dillon Gabriel started six games and had a 7/2 TD/INT ratio, but also threw for just 153 yards per game as the starter. While none of the options are enticing, being surrounded by Quinshon Judkins, Jerry Jeudy, Harold Fannin Jr., a retooled offensive line, and 2026 draftees KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston is worthy of some optimism.

So, how will the new offense look?

This is a really good question. Obviously the QB decision made by Monken and OC Travis Switzer will matter in this equation, but Switzer, formerly Baltimore’s run game coordinator, doesn’t have Derrick Henry on this team regardless. Judkins is a bruising runner and a bowling ball of a back, but the offensive line was awful last season and he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. 

Tight ends featured prominently in the Ravens offense and the Browns have one of the league’s best in Fannin, and signed Jack Stoll and drafted Joe Royer to be blocking TEs. This is a much more talented WR corps than Monken and Switzer had in Baltimore and should be a group built on YAC, so all Watson/Sanders should have to do is put the ball on target in space. The bar is low after finishing 31st in EPA/play last season.

What can we expect from the defense?

You could say that I buried the lede, but, honestly, the writing was on the wall for a Myles Garrett deal back in March when his bonus structure was modified to make trading him easier come June 1. And that’s exactly what the Browns did, losing a league-leading and single-season record 23 sacks and a league-leading 33 tackles for loss. But, Jared Verse is an excellent player and we’ll see what the draft picks become, as Verse was a top-10 edge rusher per PFF and only played 76% of the snaps. He’ll play a lot more now.

Jim Schwartz was sort of in the mix for the HC role, but the Browns ultimately burned that bridge to ashes. With Schwartz gone, Monken and the front office hired Mike Rutenberg to be the new DC. Admittedly, I’m a Browns fan and I had to Google the new DC. Rutenberg was Atlanta’s defensive pass game coordinator last season and the Jets linebackers coach for four seasons prior to that. He inherits a great foundation, even without Garrett, and has the last two Defensive Rookies of the Year in Verse and Carson Schwesinger. The Browns had the worst average starting field position on defense last season at their own 34.7-yard line and still finished 14th in points per game allowed and fifth in percentage of drives ending in points.

Browns 2026 Win Total Pick – Under 6.5

As of now, the Browns are only favored in two games – Raiders and Falcons. Getting to seven wins seems like an arduous task, especially because they have six road games in the first nine weeks, including three in a row Weeks 7-9. The bye, with a rookie head coach, isn’t until Week 11. While I ultimately see Under 6.5 coming in, this is one of the most talented rosters in the NFL outside of the most important position on the field.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The job security for a head coach certainly isn’t what it used to be, but rarely do you see one get let go following a division championship. Mike McCarthy is now the head man in Pittsburgh, as Mike Tomlin, who never had a losing season in 19 seasons at the helm, parted ways with the Steelers after an uncompetitive Wild Card Round loss to the Texans. It was Tomlin’s third straight 10-7 season and fifth playoff appearance in six seasons.

It was also Tomlin’s sixth straight one-and-done in the playoffs and he never could replicate his early success with a Super Bowl title in his second season and an AFC Championship in his fourth. McCarthy, who was fired by the Cowboys after the 2024 season, is back in his hometown now.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

A smooth ride into the sunset?

Aaron Rodgers signed a one-year deal in May and said that this will absolutely be his last season. Things have come full circle for Rodgers and McCarthy, as the two were together from 2006-18 in Green Bay. The 43-year-old Rodgers completed 65.7% of his passes with a 24/7 TD/INT ratio last season and threw for slightly over 207 yards per game in Arthur Smith’s offense. While Brian Angelichio has the offensive coordinator title, McCarthy will call his own plays.

If nothing else, Rodgers has a better group around him, including 1,000-yard rusher Rico Dowdle, who reunites with McCarthy after their days in Dallas. Departed running back Kenneth Gainwell led the Steelers in receptions last season and only he and D.K. Metcalf had at least 85 targets. Now, Rodgers and McCarthy get to scheme with Michael Pittman Jr. and second-round pick Germie Bernard. Given that Rodgers had the third-lowest time to throw per NFL Next Gen Stats and third-lowest Intended Air Yards, I would think this new-look offense and a familiar scheme make the Steelers much more dynamic on that side of the ball.

Who is T.J. Watt?

Watt, who will turn 32 in mid-October, enters Year 2 of a three-year, $108 million guaranteed contract coming off of arguably his worst season in the NFL. He missed three games due to a partially collapsed lung, but only had seven sacks in 14 games and ranked 31st out of 115 qualified edge rushers per PFF’s grades. Obviously, that’s still good, but is the elite player that we’ve seen as a five-time Defensive Player of the Year top-five finalist and 2021 winner still in there?

Even with Watt not as productive as normal, the Steelers were sixth in sacks and fifth in QB Hits, but also allowed the third-most passing yards and sixth-most yards after catch. Watt played 82% of the team’s snaps last season, not far off from the last few seasons. This is an organization that drafts and develops well, so they’ve rebuilt other parts of the defense on the fly. It’s just fair to wonder if Watt will be an impact player this season.

How much will the Steelers miss the Mike Tomlin voodoo?

The Steelers were +10 in point differential last season and won the division at 10-7. They were +33 in point differential in 2024 and slightly overperformed to go 10-7. They were -20 in point differential in 2023 and went 10-7. In 2022, they had a winning record with a -38 point differential and the same thing in 2021 with a playoff berth in a season that finished with a -55 point differential.

Objectively, McCarthy is a good head coach. But, have we ever seen a coach win as many close games and squeeze more out of his talent than Tomlin has? This is a team that hasn’t finished in the top 10 in points since 2018 and still made the playoffs five times in that span. They’ve been outside the top 10 in point differential in six of the last seven seasons, but kept winning more games than they lost. McCarthy has some big, lucky shoes to fill.

Steelers 2026 Win Total Pick – Under 8.5

Geographically, the schedule isn’t bad for Pittsburgh, as their only games in a different time zone will be in Paris and Nashville. They do have three sets of back-to-back road games, no bye after the Paris game, and a trio of short-week games. While there is plenty of talent here and a skill position group that should fit the McCarthy offense, the schedule is tough and the QB is 43 years old.