DIVISION PREVIEW

Going into last season, the Houston Texans had won two consecutive AFC South titles and were projected to do so again. The Texans concluded their regular season with nine straight victories to go 12-5 and made the playoff Divisional Round before falling at New England, largely due to a nightmarish performance from QB C.J. Stroud. 

Indianapolis and Jacksonville both had promising starts to take over the division from Houston and it looked like the Colts would be the one to emerge and win their first division title since 2014. The Colts started 8-2, but then the schedule got more difficult and injuries took their toll, especially with a season-ending Achilles injury to QB Daniel Jones in Week 14. They lost all seven games after the Week 11 bye and became the first team in NFL history to finish the season with a losing record after an 8-2 start. 

Ultimately, Jacksonville, who we picked in this guide last year, went 13-4 by winning eight straight games to end the season as AFC South Champions. First-year head coach Liam Coen proved to be a good match for QB Trevor Lawrence as the oft-maligned signal caller posted career-highs for TD passes (29), rushing TDs (9), and had the fewest turnovers (14) ever in a full 17-game season. 

Tennessee was at the bottom again with a 3-14 record and Brian Callahan was out after Week 6. Things weren’t better under interim coach Mike McCoy, as the Titans went 2-9. Robert Saleh is getting another shot as an NFL head coach after a successful second stint as the 49ers DC last season and will need some of that success for a defense that ranked 29th in DVOA. Fellow former head coaches Brian Daboll and Gus Bradley come in as offensive and defensive coordinators. 

The elite defense of Texans (+110) might be enough to get back atop the AFC South but need to have at least a somewhat close version of Stroud from three years ago to go any further. Lawrence had a stable year in Jacksonville (+250) last year, but can he ever be the elite QB that he has long been expected to be? Jones is expected to be ready for the Colts (4/1) opener. Cam Ward showed some promise at QB for Tennessee (8/1) last season, but the Titans lack playmakers on offense, and the defense is in rebuild mode.

HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans improved two games on their 2024 record to go 12-5 courtesy of a nine-game winning streak to end the season. However, it still was not enough to three-peat in the AFC South. Nevertheless, Houston did win a road playoff game at Pittsburgh on Wild Card Weekend before losing at New England. 

DeMeco Ryans’ defense was one of the best in the league, ranking second both for points allowed (17.3 PPG) and yards allowed (277.2 YPG). They were also second in both Rush Defense and Pass Defense DVOA while ranking third in Takeaways (29). In all, the Texans’ stop unit had three All-Pros – DE Will Anderson, CB Derek Stingley Jr., and DE Danielle Hunter – plus three other Pro Bowlers. The group adds second-round DT Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), who was widely considered as perhaps the best run-stopper in this year’s crop, and FS Reed Blankenship comes in from Philadelphia after being the QB of Vic Fangio’s defense. There is a possibility that this unit could be even better, but all the major questions come on the offense for Houston.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Can C.J. Stroud reverse course?

Three years ago, C.J. Stroud was chosen second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. All he did was throw for over 4,000 yards, 23 TDs, and lead the league in passing yards per game (273.9) as a rookie. Stroud also has a playoff victory in each of his first three seasons, but the numbers do not lie. In 2024, he certainly had a sophomore slump as his passing yards per game plummeted down to 219.2. Some of that can be attributed to an offensive line that allowed 63 sacks (Stroud sacked on 52 of those), but last year he only took 29 sacks and posted just 217.2 passing yards per game. 

Granted, he missed Weeks 10-12 with a concussion, but Stroud was awful in the playoffs. The Texans won 30-6 at Pittsburgh despite Stroud committing three turnovers. It was even worse the following week in New England in which Stroud completed just 20 of 47 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 28.0. 

Three years ago, he was the franchise savior. Now there is some uncertainty, and it is up to him to eliminate all doubt.

Is this the year that the investment in the offensive line finally pays dividends?

Two years ago, the Texans gave up 63 sacks. Last year, they added second-round pick Aireontae Ersery and free agent Ed Ingram, who became the starters at LT and RG, respectively. This year, the Texans replace the other three starters with Wyatt Teller (Cleveland) and Braden Smith coming in to play LG and RT with first-rounder Keylan Rutledge (Georgia Tech) slotted in at C. 

Stroud’s best friends should be his offensive line and a running game that needs to improve as the Texans ranked just 22nd in rushing yards per game (108.9 YPG) and scored just nine TDs on the ground, tying for second-to-last in the league. 

Can David Montgomery improve the Texans’ anemic running game?

Nick Chubb could not provide the answer for the Texans on the ground while platooning with fourth-round pick Woody Marks last year. Marks ended up being Houston’s most productive back and runs hard, but did not provide the Texans many game-breaking plays. 

Enter David Montgomery, who had to know his days were numbered as the Lions featured back when Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted back in 2023. Gibbs eventually took over the bulk of the backfield work and Montgomery was the No. 2 in Detroit last season. Nonetheless, Montgomery did run for 20 TDs over the last two seasons and was a reliable ball carrier, having only lost two fumbles over three years with the Lions.

Texans 2026 Win Total Pick – Over 9.5

Houston was given the seventh-easiest schedule based on win-loss opponents’ win percentage from the 2025 season. The Texans open with three of their first four games at NRG Stadium. While only having eight home games, they only have eight true road games playing Jacksonville at Wembley Stadium in London. Four road games in cold weather for December/January is not ideal, but this group did go 6-4 on the road last season. 

It is a bit surprising to see a team that won 12 games last season drop to a total of 9.5 considering the Texans have very few personnel losses, have arguably the best defense in the AFC, and improved the offensive line and running back positions.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

This time last year, the Indianapolis Colts were facing a new era after the passing of their owner Jim Irsay. Irsay’s three daughters, led by eldest daughter and CEO Carlie Irsay-Gordon, were hoping to get the Colts out of their recent mediocrity. The start of the season was very promising with an 8-2 start, and it seemed like the team found a quarterback after they essentially moved on from former first-round draft pick Anthony Richardson as its starter.

After six largely unsuccessful seasons with the Giants, Daniel Jones got a second chance to be a starter in the NFL and was on his way to a career-best season posting career-highs in completion percentage (68%), yards per attempt (8.1), and passer rating (100.2). Jones’s season ended in Week 14 at Jacksonville with a torn Achilles tendon. The Colts’ season also basically ended as well and they finished with seven consecutive losses to miss the playoffs.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Is Indiana Jones really the answer at quarterback?

The Colts have been searching for any answer at QB since Andrew Luck retired just before the 2019 season was to begin. They have tried Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew, Anthony Richardson, Joe Flacco, and a couple others, but all of them were stopgaps or were not up to the job. 

Jones was given a one-year deal and looked like he was a fit with Shane Steichen’s offense. In Weeks 1-8, Jones completed 173 of 243 (71.2%) passes for 2,062 yards, 13 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 109.5 and the Colts were arguably the best offense in the league. However, some regression came even before the Achilles injury. From Week 9 through the injury, Jones completed 83 of 134 (61.9%) passes for 979 yards, six touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.6.

The Colts essentially committed long-term to Jones when they traded their 2026 and 2027 first-round picks away for CB Sauce Gardner. The question remains whether they will get early-season Jones or the Jones from the second half of the season?

Can the Colts get pressure on opposing quarterbacks?

Aside from QB, one of the major criticisms of GM Chris Ballard is the inability to find the next consistently dominant edge rusher that the Colts have lacked since the Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis eras. The last time the Colts had a player garner a double-digit sack total was back in 2019. 

While also trying several different free agents, Ballard has also whiffed in the draft in finding an impact edge. 2024 first-round pick Laiatu Latu had 8.5 sacks last season and Arden Key joins from Tennessee. The secondary has been in some flux in recent years, but the main culprit for the Colts ranking 31st last season in pass defense is not being able to win up front. 

How many lives does GM Chris Ballard have?

Ballard is now in his 10th season in Indianapolis. While he did win Executive of the Year in 2018, his tenure has been mired in mediocrity. The Colts have not won a division title in his tenure and last won the AFC South in 2014. They have also only made the playoffs twice and it has been a five-season playoff drought. 

Yes, Luck unexpectedly retired but that was seven years ago! Ballard’s tenure has had four different head coaches and eight different QBs with double-digit starts and included a second tenure for 44-year-old Rivers, who had retired for five years, late last season. 

Irsay-Gordon elected to not make any changes last year, but eventually enough will need to be enough if the Colts miss the playoffs again.

Colts 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5

Even with all the questions surrounding the Colts, they do have the fifth-easiest schedule based on the opponents’ 2025 winning percentage. The offense loses Michael Pittman Jr. (Pittsburgh) at receiver, but the group still has plenty of playmakers with Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, and Alec Pierce. Plus, as bad as it got late in the season, six of the Colts losses were one-score games.

This team has either gone 8-9 or 9-8 in four of the last five seasons, and this is probably another one of those seasons where this club teases its fans enough to think that they are good, but do not have enough to make the playoffs and the Colts remain like the Stealers Wheel song, “Stuck in the Middle with You”.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The hire of Liam Coen as head coach, Jacksonville’s fourth in six seasons, proved successful in Year 1, as the Jaguars won the AFC South and their 13 wins last season were the most since 1999. Both the offensive and defensive units rose from the near bottom in 2024 to the top third of the league last season. 

Perhaps the biggest improvement for Jacksonville was its culture led by the trio of Coen, new GM James Gladstone, and executive VP of football operations Tony Boselli, the Jags’ lone Pro Football Hall of Famer. Last year was the first time this organization had success in a long time before bowing out to Buffalo in the playoffs. There were very few roster changes, so the core of the team is back but now they have higher expectations after far exceeding the ones from last season.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Can Trevor Lawrence finally become an elite QB?

Trevor Lawrence was drafted No. 1 overall back in 2021. In his five seasons as the Jaguars’ franchise QB, he has shown glimmers of potential greatness and made a Pro Bowl back in 2022. Last season was the first one where he solidified himself as an above-average NFL starter and had the best season of his career with multiple highs, including passing TDs and rushing TDs. On the other hand, Lawrence ranked middle of the pack in many categories such as being 14th in EPA per dropback, 12th in DYAR, 16th in DVOA, and 20th in passer rating.

Coen and OC Grant Udinski proved to provide the best system of Lawrence’s career using him as both a passing and running threat. However, the Jaguars were fortunate that Lawrence stayed healthy all season, considering the 41 sacks that he took were also a career high. 

So, the question remains whether Lawrence can be great or just be pretty good?

Can the Jaguars offense get better production from its OL and running game?

While there were not many roster changes from the Jaguars, one major change was electing to move on from RB Travis Etienne, who signed with New Orleans, not only due to his price tag but also a lack of production at the goal line. Chris Rodriguez (Washington) comes in as a more physical back, but also is less athletic and gives little in the passing game. 

The offensive line has always been a bit of musical chairs in Jacksonville over the last several seasons, but this year all five starters from last season are penciled in to start once again in 2026. Continuity is typically a good thing, but this group still allowed 41 sacks, ranked in the bottom third of the league in rushing offense, and was ranked just 24th in PFF’s season-ending rankings. 

What is Travis Hunter exactly? 

The 2024 Heisman Trophy Winner was drafted as the Jaguars version of Shohei Ohtani, as he played both ways at Colorado and in his rookie season last year before suffering a torn LCL that ended his season in late October. 

Before the season-ending injury, Hunter played 326 snaps on offense where he caught 28 passes for 298 yards and a touchdown. However, he only played 165 snaps on defense. 

His role seems to be a bit undefined considering most NFL talent evaluators believed that he would be a more impactful player on defense. This is not saying that Hunter cannot be used in certain situations on offense, but the Jaguars have a solid receiving corps with Brian Thomas Jr, Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, and Jakobi Meyers, who injected a jolt into the offense after being acquired from the Raiders in a midseason trade. The Jaguars secondary is solid, but Hunter is more needed there than at receiver.

Jaguars 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 9.5 

Most everything went right for Jacksonville last season. They stayed relatively injury-free, plus took advantage of a +13 turnover margin (second in takeaways – 31), and a softer schedule. The strength of schedule is in the lower third again in terms of opponents’ winning percentage from 2025, but the dynamics are much more difficult considering that the Jaguars only play one true home game from Weeks 4-11 due to EverBank Stadium renovations, which call for reduced seating capacity this season from 67,814 to 42,507. 

The back-to-back London games in Weeks 5 and 6 save some travel mileage but they are also against tough opponents (Philadelphia and Houston).

TENNESSEE TITANS

Tennessee was at the bottom of the AFC South again last season with a 3-14 record for the second consecutive season. Brian Callahan made it through six games into his second season before being fired with a 4-19 record and then Mike McCoy took over on an interim basis and the Titans went 2-9. Callahan was an offensive guy and as is the trend in the NFL, when a coach from one side of the ball fails then organizations go to the other side and Tennessee did that with the hire of 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. 

Saleh and his staff, which includes new coordinators and former NFL head coaches Brian Daboll and Gus Bradley, are tasked with building a defense near the bottom of almost all categories and continuing to develop second-year QB Cam Ward.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Can Cam Ward continue to progress?

Nearly every rookie QB has his ups and downs and Ward was certainly no exception. It was a major struggle in the first nine weeks of the season as Ward completed 170 of 295 passes (57.6%) for 1,760 yards, five touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 72.1. In the second half of the season, he completed 153 of 245 passes (62.4%) for 1,409 yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 90.0.

Despite being devoid of much higher-end offensive talent around him, Ward hung in there and kept the Titans competitive in many games while having to face elite defenses like Seattle, Houston, Kansas City, and the LA Chargers in the second half of the season. 

Ward, behind a young offensive line, and with the proclivity of young QBs to hold the ball too long, was sacked 55 times (most in the NFL) and did lead the league in fumbles (11) and fumbles lost (7). Daboll showed the ability to work with a younger QB in New York as Daniel Jones had his best season in 2022 during the coach’s first season. 

Can Robert Saleh build this defense?

The Titans ranked 29th in DVOA and were not particularly proficient in any area, so this group needs a massive overhaul. The group can start with one great piece in DT Jeffery Simmons, who is one of the game’s best at the position and had an outstanding season (12 sacks, 64 pressures, 16 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles) once again in 2025. 

To help Simmons, who faces double-teams on every snap, the Titans acquired DE Jermaine Johnson II from the Jets, signed John Franklin-Myers (Denver), and drafted edge-rusher Keldric Faulk (Auburn) late in the first round and MLB Anthony Hill Jr (Texas) in the second round. Saleh and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley play a Cover 3 zone base that relies on the front four to get home and drops seven into coverage, so these new acquisitions will need to produce immediately. 

The new scheme is designed to limit explosive passing plays, which they gave up way too frequently last season, but they also spent $105 million combined on brand new corners Cor’Dale Flott (Giants) and Alontae Taylor (Saints). 

Will Carnell Tate be the WR1 that the Titans desperately need?

Ward ended last season with Elic Ayomanor, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Chimere Dike as his primary receivers, so the Titans had to upgrade the position. Enter Carnell Tate, who was often the second option in three years at Ohio State while playing alongside Marvin Harrison Jr, Emeka Egbuka, and Jeremiah Smith. Tate was drafted No. 4 overall and, while not seen as a speed demon (4.53/40 at the combine), he is a great route runner and makes tough catches. Wan’Dale Robinson also reunites with Daboll from their time with the Giants.

Titans 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 6.5

The Titans do get a last-place schedule this year, but they also had one last year and finished 3-14. Nevertheless, Ward is in his second year and did show some promise in the second half of his rookie season. The offensive line still has some question marks, but there are more skill players to work with this time around and the defense also has more talent on paper. 

Perhaps Saleh is more prepared to be a head coach on his second chance. He and his staff, especially the coordinators, are certainly more experienced and seasoned than the Callahan staff.