DIVISION PREVIEW

After nearly a decade of division dominance, the Chiefs finally took a fall last season, when their streak of AFC West titles was stopped at nine. Kansas City had been very good and lucky during its run, but all of that changed in 2025, and the freefall was punctuated by a knee injury that ended quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ season in December. The change at the top was not a surprise to everyone. While some picked the Chargers to rise to the top, this handicapper correctly bet on the Broncos at +350. Denver’s success was due mostly to its defense, though second-year quarterback Bo Nix played his part well. The media focus has been on Mahomes’ return from injury, but it’s important to note that Nix is not recovering as quickly from a broken right ankle suffered in January during the Broncos’ 33-30 overtime victory over the Bills in the AFC divisional round.

Jim Harbaugh has changed the Chargers’ culture, and now he must change their postseason failures. Harbaugh posted 11-6 records in each of his first two years as coach, yet wild-card losses to the Texans and Patriots mean there’s a lot of unfinished business. The Chargers seem cursed with bad injury luck, and quarterback Justin Herbert, who has done everything but win a playoff game, needs more help from his supporting cast. Herbert could get it this season.

The Chiefs’ 12-0 record in one-score games in 2024 hinted that regression could be coming, and Kansas City crashed by going 1-9 in one-score games last season, including a 14-12 loss at Las Vegas in a sadly fitting finale. The Broncos will take a step or two back from 14-3, and the Chiefs can be counted on to bounce back from their six-win disaster. The Raiders (3-14) won’t be as rotten and doubling their win total to six would mark significant improvement, though the development of rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza will be the focus.

DENVER BRONCOS

If he had played his cards right, Sean Payton might have been coaching the Broncos in the Super Bowl. But he blew the high-stakes poker game and later admitted it. Payton made a couple of costly game-management mistakes in the AFC championship that allowed the Patriots to escape from a Denver snowstorm with a 10-7 win. The Broncos were forced to play backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham after Bo Nix went down with a broken right ankle during an overtime victory over the Bills in the divisional round. A Cinderella season came to a crushing ending.

Payton will get a pass from many critics because he has cooked the Broncos’ success in short order, going from 8-9 in his first season to 10-7 in 2024 to 14-3 in 2025. Denver was able to win the AFC West due to Nix’s sudden rise, an outstanding defense and a soft schedule. Don’t bet on the Broncos repeating the feat this season.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Is Bo Nix the real deal or is he stepping on a banana peel?

Payton was second-guessed for using the 12th overall pick of the 2024 draft on Nix, who was the last of six quarterbacks to go in the first round. Two years later, Nix has outplayed two of the QBs picked before him (Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy) and holds his own in comparison with the top three picks (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye). Nix owns a 24-10 record as a starter while completing 64.8% of his passes with 54 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He also has rushed for 786 yards and nine touchdowns. The stats are solid, but it’s tough to completely trust him. Nix misses too many throws and his interception numbers are high. His ankle injury, which has not healed as quickly as hoped, is a separate concern. If Nix is not ready by September, the Broncos could be forced to start Stidham again.

Payton seems to have picked the right franchise quarterback, but there are Nix skeptics out there for a reason. He’s still not a quarterback you put your money on with high confidence.

Will the Denver defense remain dominant?

The Broncos were able to win several tight games largely because of a defensive front that constantly harassed quarterbacks. Denver led the NFL with 68 sacks during the regular season and added eight more in two playoff games. Fourth-year linebacker Nik Bonitto led the team and ranked fifth in the league with 14 sacks. Denver’s defense ranked No. 3 in scoring (18.3 PPG) and No. 2 against the run (91.1 yards per game). But the Broncos did show some leaks late in the season, allowing 34 points in a loss to Jacksonville, and star cornerback Pat Surtain II had only one interception on the season.

Did the Broncos cash in on close-game luck and a soft schedule?

The margins are thin in the NFL, so winning close games is what it’s all about. But close-game luck tends to turn the other way at some point. Denver won seven games by four points or fewer last season, including two of the ugliest games imaginable against the Jets (13-11) and Raiders (10-7). The Broncos also needed a miracle comeback, rallying from an 18-point deficit in the fourth quarter, to beat the Giants 33-32 in Denver in Week 7. The Giants, Jets and Raiders were among the league’s worst teams.

Broncos Win Total Pick – Under 9.5

Payton’s teams easily topped the posted win totals the past two years. Why are the Broncos, off a 14-win season, now tagged with a total of only 9.5? Regression is expected, and the fall could be steep if Nix’s ankle injury becomes a bigger concern. Drawing the NFC West schedule card is bad luck. In a four-game stretch starting in Week 3, the Broncos face the Rams, 49ers, Chargers and Seahawks. This team seems headed for 9-8 or 10-7 and should finish behind the Chargers and Chiefs in what is arguably the NFL’s second-toughest division. Denver, the +225 third choice in the division behind the favored Chiefs and Chargers, is highly unlikely to duplicate its 5-1 division record from last year, when beating the lowly Raiders turned into a difficult task for this team. The win total looks right, so flip a coin.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Andy Reid is a bear of a man, but he’s not going into hibernation after one lousy year. It was a season in which everything went wrong, and the worst-case scenario — a serious injury to quarterback Patrick Mahomes – was the low point. The Super Bowl loser hangover became reality in Kansas City. In his first 12 years as Chiefs coach, Reid made the playoffs 11 times and won 10 or more regular-season games each time. His 13th season ended with a 6-11 embarrassment. When a heavyweight champ gets knocked down, he doesn’t stay down.

A winning organization has its house in order at the top. Kansas City’s charge is still directed by three of the best in the business in Reid, general manager Brett Veach and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Reid and Veach started to regroup by smartly executing offseason plans through the draft and free agency.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Is Patrick Mahomes still a superstar or a falling star?

Disaster struck during a Week 15 loss to the Chargers when Mahomes limped off with two ligament tears in his left knee. He underwent surgery the next day and was back on the golf course and practice field about five months later. Full-contact football is a far higher hurdle to clear, of course, but Mahomes is reportedly ahead of schedule in rehab and seems likely to start when the Chiefs open the season by hosting the Broncos on Monday, September 14. Improvisational plays and scrambling are a big part of Mahomes’ success, and how much mobility he will have is a mystery.

Mahomes and the offense reached a peak in 2022, when he had 41 touchdown passes and the Chiefs led the league in scoring at 29.2 PPG. In 2023, he dipped to 27 TD passes as the offense slipped to 21.8 PPG. In 2024, he had 26 TD passes and the offense averaged 22.6 PPG to rank 15th in scoring for the second straight season. In 14 games last year, Mahomes had 22 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions as the offense scored 21.3 PPG to rank 21st. After three consecutive seasons of declining numbers, it’s fair to wonder if Mahomes’ best days are in the rear-view mirror, especially after the injury.

Will two new faces lead to an improved offense?

Matt Nagy was a failure as head coach of the Bears and subsequently flopped as offensive coordinator in Kansas City. Nagy’s contract expired and Reid finally cut ties before hiring Eric Bieniemy to return as OC. Hiring a stuffed animal to replace Nagy would have been an upgrade. Bieniemy and Mahomes worked well together in the past. A more important free-agent addition is running back Kenneth Walker, who carried the ball 27 times for 135 yards on the way to Super Bowl MVP honors for Seattle. The Chiefs ranked 25th in rushing offense last year.

Kansas City is also counting on a few familiar faces to rebound. The top three receivers (Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton) should be productive playmakers and complementing that group will again be tight end Travis Kelce, who led the team with 76 receptions and also caught Taylor Swift as his soon-to-be wife.

Where’s the beef on the defensive front?

Spagnuolo’s unit ranked sixth in scoring defense (19.3 PPG), but a steep decline in sack numbers from 55 in 2023 to 39 in 2024 to 35 in 2025 needs to change. Veteran tackle Chris Jones (seven sacks) and end George Karlaftis (six sacks) are getting help. The Chiefs addressed the pass rush in the draft by getting Clemson tackle Peter Woods in the first round and Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas in the second round. The secondary, which subtracted All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie in a trade with the Rams, adds LSU corner Mansoor Delane (No. 6 overall pick) and safety Alohi Gilman, a free agent from Baltimore.

Chiefs Win Total Pick – Over 9.5

The recommendation in this spot last year was to play the Chiefs Under 11.5. The call this time will be Over, and with the options at Circa Sports being 9.5 (-140) and 10.5 (+135), lay a short price and bet on 10-7 as a reasonable expectation. Kansas City has home games against the Cardinals and Jets in addition to facing the Raiders twice, so that’s a good starting point. Mahomes’ return looks promising and it’s a talented team hunting for redemption.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Another year, another total rebuild for the Raiders, who got it all wrong last year with the hiring of coach Pete Carroll and the signing of quarterback Geno Smith. This time, there’s a much greater probability of the Raiders getting it right with the hiring of coach Klint Kubiak and the addition of quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall draft pick. “Just win, baby” is not the mantra this season, and while that would anger late owner Al Davis, the immediate goal under owner Mark Davis is to just compete and improve.

The Lost Vegas Raiders have produced one winning record and one playoff appearance in six years on the Strip, and their 3-14 record with Carroll represented rock bottom. It might not get a lot better this season, but it won’t get worse.

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

When will Fernando-mania become the Raiders’ reality?

Tom Brady fills a major role in the organization as a minority owner and football personnel advisor, but his influence has not led to winning, at least not yet. Brady, general manager John Spytek and Kubiak reached a consensus decision to draft Mendoza out of Indiana, and all apparently agree that he should not be the starter immediately. Brady believes in developing quarterbacks the right way instead of throwing them into the fire right away, and a shaky offensive line is another reason to allow the rookie to learn from the sidelines. The signing of Cousins makes him the obvious bridge to Mendoza. Unless he’s injured in the preseason, Cousins will start Week 1. How long will he keep the job? Cousins really needs to beat the Dolphins in the season opener to quell a quarterback controversy in September.

While there is no obvious spot on the schedule to give Mendoza his first start, it could be in Week 6 versus the Bills in Las Vegas or Week 8 against the Jets in New York. The Raiders don’t get a bye until early December, and it’s doubtful Cousins will play well enough or win enough to retain the job that long. Mendoza is a high-IQ player who approaches the game as a true professional, so he won’t be a bust, but it’s in his best interest not to play too soon.

Why is Kubiak the right head coach?

Kubiak, 39, was an assistant with four other teams before joining the Seahawks as offensive coordinator. He helped veteran quarterback Sam Darnold have a breakthrough season in 2025 en route to winning the Super Bowl with Seattle. The Seahawks ranked No. 3 in scoring offense (28.4 PPG) last season with Kubiak calling the shots. He also worked under his father, Gary, who was the head coach in Denver, and worked with respected offensive coaches such as Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota and Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. One of Kubiak’s main objectives this year will be to develop Mendoza, and Brady plans to be more present to assist with that.

Is Maxx Crosby sticking around to lead the defense?

The Raiders wanted to trade Crosby to the Ravens in March and were thrilled with the deal that brought back two first-round picks. Of course, Baltimore backed out and claimed Crosby failed a physical. The Crosby trade story still has life, according to recent reports, and the Eagles and 49ers are interested parties. Crosby, who turns 29 in August, still has value in the market, but he’s had injury concerns while his production has declined. Ironically, the Raiders’ biggest free-agent acquisition came from Baltimore when Pro Bowler Tyler Linderbaum was made the highest-paid center in the NFL with a three-year, $81 million contract. Las Vegas also signed linebackers Nakobe Dean, Kwity Paye and Quay Walker to fill the middle of a 3-4 scheme.

Raiders Win Total Pick – Over 5.5

If the Raiders double their win total to six, that should be considered acceptable progress, especially considering the schedule is brutal. Aside from home games against the Dolphins and Titans and road games against the Saints, Jets, Browns and Cardinals, there’s not much hope. But the Raiders did pull an upset at New England to open last season, so strange things happen. DraftKings offers Over 5.5 at -145 and that’s worth a bet, but playing Over 6.5 at +125 is too much to ask.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

This is the year. This is finally the Chargers’ year. Eternal optimism and positive reinforcement are Jim Harbaugh’s primary motivational tactics. As a coach, he creates an atmosphere that players embrace and he attempts to talk success into existence. If Tony Robbins is ever feeling down, he could call Harbaugh for a boost.

Harbaugh took on the task of changing the culture of a Chargers organization that’s famous for underachieving. He took a big step in his first year by inheriting a team that went 5-12 before his arrival and finishing 11-6. A soft schedule was a beneficial launching pad. Harbaugh took another small step last year when an injury-riddled team again finished 11-6. Both seasons concluded with disappointing losses in the wild-card round.

But this is finally the Chargers’ year, right?

Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season

Will Justin Herbert get more support from his cast?

Entering his seventh season, Herbert will be hoping his luck is good for a change. His time in Los Angeles has been cursed by coaching changes and injuries, both to himself and his supporting cast. Last year, young stud tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt suffered severe injury setbacks. Slater, the left tackle, went down with a leg injury in an early August practice and needed season-ending surgery on a ruptured patellar tendon. Alt, the right tackle, suffered a high-ankle sprain in November that also required season-ending surgery. The Chargers had to patch together their offensive line, and Herbert took a career-high 54 sacks. The good news is Alt and Slater are expected to be ready for training camp.

Harbaugh’s philosophy at Michigan, where he built a national championship team in 2023, was to develop a physical offensive line and punishing running attack. Omarion Hampton, the Chargers’ first-round pick in 2025, has the rugged running style Harbaugh loves. Hampton went down with an ankle injury in Week 5 and played in only nine games as a rookie. Herbert was often the top running threat and took too many hits last season, finishing third on the team with 498 rushing yards. Herbert had 26 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions, after passing for 23 TDs with only three interceptions in his first season with Harbaugh.

Is Mike McDaniel the answer as offensive coordinator?

Greg Roman is out as OC and McDaniel should be an upgrade. McDaniel is an odd duck who staged clumsy press conferences and was miscast as a head coach in Miami, but he’s a smart play-caller who will make needed changes to the offense. McDaniel was a candidate for other head-coaching jobs and recruiting him was a key move by Harbaugh. The personnel up front appears improved. The team signed veteran center Tyler Biadasz and guard Cole Strange, drafted guard Jake Slaughter from Florida in the second round, and signed veteran fullback Alec Ingold, who was one of McDaniel’s favorite players with the Dolphins. Ladd McConkey returns as Herbert’s top receiver and there is more speed outside with Quentin Johnson and Tre Harris. The talent is there, and now the players must stay healthy for a change.

Is the defense still in mint condition?

Jesse Minter was a big reason for Harbaugh’s success. Minter coordinated defenses that ranked No. 1 in scoring (17.7 PPG) in 2024 and No. 9 (20 PPG) last year. Minter moved on to be head coach in Baltimore, where he’s ironically replacing John Harbaugh. Chris O’Leary was promoted from safeties coach to DC. Veteran strong safety Derwin James remains the leader of the defense, and Miami Hurricanes linebacker Akheem Mesidor was a first-round pick. The talent is there on defense, but Minter will be missed.

Chargers Win Total Pick – Over 9.5

If the Chargers don’t start 2-0 after home games against the Cardinals and Raiders, there will be trouble. The first two weeks are as easy as it gets, but the Chargers’ schedule for the next seven games — at Buffalo, at Seattle, Denver, at Kansas City, at Rams, Houston, at Baltimore — is about as tough as it gets. If Harbaugh and Herbert can get to 5-4 through nine games, the schedule eases and there’s a path to 10 or more wins. This is the most challenging schedule Harbaugh has faced in three years, so betting Over 9.5 is risky business. DraftKings lists the Chiefs (+160) as division favorites with the Chargers (+190) as the second choice, and those teams should run one-two ahead of the Broncos.