It’s time for Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 11 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 11 NFL best bets and Week 11 NFL player props.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for NFL best bets from all of our analysts
Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins – 9:30 am ET (Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, Spain)
Waddle has had at least 82 yards in three straight games and five of the last six. He’s really putting up some good numbers serving as Miami’s No. 1 option, and there’s no reason he can’t keep things going in Spain. Our WR-CB Matchup Tool loves Waddle’s matchup with Commanders defensive back Jonathan Jones, who has a Pro Football Focus grade of 41.1 — and a coverage grade of 37.0. Waddle should be able to turn on the jets and get by this defense, meaning Tua Tagovailoa should have some chances to put it on him. Also, Washington’s other corners aren’t much better than Jones. Mike Sainristil is another player that the WR-CB tool has enjoyed picking on this season. So, no matter who ends up guarding Waddle, he should be able to create some separation.
A receiver has gone Over 74.5 yards against the Commanders in four straight games. I think that streak extends here.
Bet: Waddle Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – 1:00 pm ET
Rico Dowdle has rushed for at least 90 yards in three of the last six games, but I like the Under on his total of 88.5 on Sunday. Atlanta just got absolutely killed on the ground by Jonathan Taylor, who rushed for 244 yards in one of the biggest performances of the year. However, Dowdle is dealing with an injured quad right now. He’s also going up against a Falcons defense that isn’t as bad as last week suggests. Before going up against Taylor, Atlanta did pretty well about keeping the opposing team’s top rusher under 90 yards. And the group up front should be very motivated after being embarrassed last week.
Dowdle to go Under the 88.5 is also the biggest edge our OptaAI player prop projections has for running backs in Week 11. They have Dowdle finishing with 66.12 rushing yards.
Bet: Dowdle Under 88.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers – 1:00 pm ET
I don’t often attack ladders very aggressively. I also don’t normally put more than 1.5 units on a single player prop. However, it does feel like there’s a shot Flacco lights up the Steelers again. Flacco is dealing with a bad shoulder right now, but that didn’t stop him from throwing for 470 yards against the Bears last game. Now, Flacco will go to work against a Pittsburgh defense that he shredded a couple of weeks ago.
Flacco threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns against this Steelers secondary in October. This is also a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed 300+ passing yards to four of the last six quarterbacks faced.
The Bengals defense should also struggle to keep Aaron Rodgers in check. Rodgers had a big game against Cincinnati in the last meeting between these two, which is why social media went crazy over the “Unc Bowl.” That would be perfect for the game flow here. We desperately want a shootout.
It just feels like there’s a real chance Flacco throws for at least 300 yards in this one, so I’m going for it and hoping the weather doesn’t get in the way of a fun play.
Bet: Flacco Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-114) & Flacco Alt 275+ Passing Yards (+140 – 0.5 units) & Flacco Alt 300+ Passing Yards (+235 – 0.25 units) & Flacco Alt 325+ Passing Yards (+400 – 0.15 units) & Flacco Alt 350+ Passing Yards (+750 – 0.1 units)
Additional Week 11 Best Bets
Jets +13 (-110) vs. Patriots & Breece Hall Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – CLICK HERE for my Jets-Patriots Thursday Night Football betting preview!
Rams -2.5 (-114) vs. Seahawks – I gave this out on Cashing Out and posted it to the picks page on Monday.
Vikings -3 (-107) vs. Bears – I gave this out on Cashing Out and posted it to the picks page on Monday.
PARLAY: Titans Alt +14.5 vs. Texans & Ravens ML vs. Browns (-175 – 1.5 units)
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2025 Record: 61-53 (+8.99 units)
