Michael Lombardi: Can the Washington Commanders Win The NFC East?

Do you remember when the NFC East was the best division in football?  The Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, and the team now known as the Washington Commanders would have epic battles, and each team played a physical style with defenses that dominated games. Those teams had Super Bowl aspirations, and besides the Eagles, each of them held the Lombardi Trophy at some point during that era. When a team was the best in the East, there was a good chance they became the best in the NFL. 

That’s not the case now. The East looks like a three-team race between Washington, (the betting favorite) Dallas, and Philadelphia.  The Eagles looked like the best team on paper going into the season. Now they appear vulnerable, barely beating a bad Browns team and their coach, Nick Sirianni, pissing off Eagle fans. The Eagles aren’t as good as we thought on defense or offense, despite their outing defensively last week against one of the worst passing offenses in the league, the Browns. Something isn’t right with the Birds. They cannot score in the first quarter (literally no points). They haven’t been able to play from in front, something they did with incredible precision two years ago.  There is a reason they are 4-10 in the last fourteen games, no matter how cocky their head coach acts on the sidelines. 

 

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Want further proof of the Birds not being as good as we thought? The look-ahead line vs. the Giants was 5.5, and now they are only a 3-point favorite. The Eagles are 7-3 in the last ten games against the Giants, winning four of the last five, with the Giants winning the last game because the Eagles didn’t need to play their starters. 

The 2024 Eagles are mistake-prone on offense, ranking 25th in turnovers and haven’t been able to rush the passer to create turnovers, ranking 31st. They struggle to play the run, they struggle to cover, and unless they show marked improvement in their defensive line, in terms of pressuring the quarterback, they are going to struggle to beat the good passing teams from the NFC North, which currently has the three best teams in the NFC. 

The other problem for the Eagles is an excellent passing team resides in their division, the Washington Commanders, who are now the betting favorite to win the East. Washington might have limitations on defense in terms of personnel, but they can score on any team with their excellent quarterback, rookie Jayden Daniels. Daniels has deep ball accuracy that makes the defense defend every single blade of grass, which causes stress to all defenses. He can fit the ball into tight windows on the third level, playing the game without any fear. He is the real deal, which makes the Washington Commanders a real contender. 

Speaking of contenders, Dallas isn’t one of them. I know we said the East was a three-team race, but it’s really not because the Cowboys have regressed. What started as a three-team tussle is more like a two-team brawl. They, like the Eagles, have struggled to follow their old formula of playing from in front and then forcing turnovers with their rush. The Cowboys cannot stop the run—in fairness, they couldn’t stop it last year. Their ability to get the lead and play from in front hid their deficiencies last year. They lost their depth on defense when Dan Quinn took the job in Washington and had no cap room to replace those players. Regardless of what owner Jerry Jones says about the team in his recent radio interview, which appeared as though he was in denial about his decision-making this off-season, they aren’t as good as they were last season, and because of their personnel issues, they aren’t going to get this turned around anytime soon. 

Prior to the interview, what Jones did say that was correct was his young players must improve. And that is a key line for all handicappers. After Week 6, we can see teams that have been working to improve and others working to get healthy—a big difference.  It was noticeable with teams that couldn’t tackle in space and weren’t playing with physicality on either side of the ball. Carolina is bad, but they appear to be getting worse, which is why, after five straight weeks of heavy hitters betting the Panthers and pushing the number in their direction, they finally bailed on them before the Falcons game. Smart move. The Panthers showed little interest in improving and have problems all over—so even as tempting as the line appears this week against Washington, it might not be enough points. Washington is improving each week. Their young players are getting better, which is why they might be able to win the East. 

Whoever wins the East will need to improve significantly. Dallas lacks the talent to make the move, so for me, this is a two-team race: Philadelphia and Washington.  The betting market also agrees with me, as they have made Dallas +425 to win and the Giants +5000. There is always one team that goes from worst to first in the league, and with the Daniels playing so well, they will be a tough team for Philadelphia to handle twice. I like the idea of the Washington Commanders winning the East, but I am not sure they have a complete defensive team to make this happen. Philadelphia is the better team, but they don’t show it right now.

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