NFL Preseason Picks
No offense to the Hall of Fame Game or the teams that played in it, but NFL Preseason Week 1 is really the start of the exhibition period. Teams have three games to get ready for the season and it does seem as though more head coaches will decide to play their starters earlier and more often.
The race to news is always paramount at this time of the year and generates line moves across the market. That means that these numbers are likely to shift a good amount in the lead-up to kickoff, but the preseason is all about digging for information, whether that’s about who’s playing and who isn’t, but also about doing your due diligence on the third and fourth stringers.
With news trickling in and some lines adjusting, let’s look at some top NFL Preseason Picks for Week 1. Also, be sure to look at our NFL Pro Picks page for the latest from our VSiN experts and on-air guests. Also, check out some NFL Preseason betting tips and this year’s NFL Preseason QB Depth Charts.
Here are some NFL Preseason Week 1 picks:
Odds as of Tuesday, August 5 at 1:30 p.m. PT
Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5, 37.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, 10 p.m. ET
The Raiders and Seahawks open up the preseason with an outdoor game at Lumen Field. Most of the reports coming out of Seattle have been that the defense is well ahead of the offense. The Seahawks have overhauled the offense in both scheme and personnel for this season, as Sam Darnold and Jalen Milroe are the top two QBs and Drew Lock is next up.
Pete Carroll is starting yet another preseason and he’s 28-20-1 ATS, so that’s part of the reason why we’ve seen a pretty significant move on the point spread. QB depth is not an attribute of this Raiders offense, as Aidan O’Connell does sit behind Geno Smith, but rookie Cam Miller out of North Dakota State is next on the pecking order.
The Raiders, much like the Seahawks, are working on all new offensive installs. That should make things a bit easier on the defense, given that the QB depth for both teams is lacking and we should see a lot of running and vanilla play-calling in the second half.
This seems like the type of game that will be a slog and a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 37.5
Detroit Lions (-4, 32.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Friday, 7 p.m. ET
The Lions already have one preseason performance under their belts as they head south to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium for their Week 1 game against the Falcons. Atlanta will take the field for the first time, though Michael Penix and Kirk Cousins will not, as Easton Stick gets the start and Emory Jones will finish out the game.
Stick went around the block several times in the preseason with the Chargers, but will now do so with the Falcons for the first time. He had a rough preseason last year with 25 completions on 55 attempts and a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. But, he’s an experienced guy and now has a fresh start in Atlanta, where I feel like Zac Robinson’s playbook may be a better fit for him and Jones.
The Lions drew the ire of head coach Dan Campbell last week for their performance in Canton, but Hendon Hooker and Kyle Allen will be the only two QBs in the game once again. Campbell was upset with the effort level, but the Lions need to be careful again this week. Veteran OL Dan Skipper was hobbled in last week’s game. The secondary is littered with injuries. This is about cleaning up some bad habits, but also trying to stay healthy.
Raheem Morris’ Falcons went 0-3 last preseason in his first year and everybody, Jones included, should be deeper into the playbook and we should get a motivated and spirited effort from guys looking for opportunities. The Lions are focused solely on the regular season.
Pick: Falcons +4
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots (-3, 34.5)
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Commanders and Patriots will throw it back to high school for some Friday Night Lights action at Gillette Stadium. First-year head coach Mike Vrabel is trying to get New England’s identity back, so I would expect a spirited effort from the team in this one. Also, the Patriots had four offensive linemen go down with minor injuries lately, so there is a lot of incentive for big boys up front to play well.
There are some highly-motivated skill guys seeking reps as well, including Kayshon Boutte, Javon Baker, Ja’lynn Polk, and TreVeyon Henderson. Drake Maye may get a little bit of time, but Joshua Dobbs is a really nice preseason QB to have. He’s a mobile guy to run around when stuff breaks down and a veteran who should take care of the football. Hopefully he helps to create a lead big enough for UDFA Ben Wooldridge, who will get a look in the second half.
The Commanders do have some excellent preseason depth at QB, including longtime journeyman QB Josh Johnson. But, most of this game should fall to Sam Hartman. The first-team defense is much improved for Washington, particularly in the secondary, but few of those guys will play, and if they do, it probably won’t be long.
Washington has two more preseason games in front of the home fans to show a little bit more heading into the season. This is the only home tilt for the Patriots. I think that’s a factor here as well.
Pick: Patriots -3
