NFL Preseason Picks

All 32 teams will take the field in Week 1 of the preseason. The preseason is such an interesting time of the year to handicap because the coaches tell us what’s going on and who will play for how long, but there are also so many unknowns. All we can do is gather as much information as possible and wager accordingly.

Keep in mind that there are also big line swings in the preseason based on a variety of factors, but especially the announcements of who will play and who will not. It is an inefficient market that will move around a good bit, so staying on top of the news is your best bet before even making a bet.

 

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With news trickling in and some lines adjusting, let’s look at some top NFL Preseason Picks for Week 1. Also, be sure to look at our NFL Pro Picks page for the latest from our VSiN experts and on-air guests.

Odds from DraftKings as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, August 6

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 38.5) at Miami Dolphins

Friday, 7 p.m. ET

A lot of the stars will be limited or won’t play at all on Friday night, but the offenses certainly had the upper hand in joint practices between the Falcons and Dolphins early in the week. We’ve got some decent QB depth here as well, with Mike White and Skylar Thompson for the Dolphins and Michael Penix, Taylor Heinicke, and Nathan Rourke for the Falcons.

I do prioritize QBs that can run around a little bit in the fourth quarters of these preseason games because things break down and improvisation is a big help. Rourke is more of a true dual-threat than Thompson, but both guys can move around a bit.

Kirk Cousins is not playing in any Falcons preseason games as he returns from a torn Achilles. Penix has been getting some reps with the first team with Cousins’ limitations, so there should be some rapport there. Also, the reports on Penix have been quite promising during camp.

The Dolphins have a roster battle for the No. 3 receiver, so we could see a lot of passing reps as a result. The Falcons, meanwhile, are examining their options at the safety position.

Pick: Over 38.5

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 39.5)

Saturday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur stated that QB Jordan Love and the starters will play, but he didn’t specify for how long. Kevin Stefanski said that Deshaun Watson will not and the other starters are expected to see 10 plays at most. However, Cleveland’s QB room features Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Tyler Huntley, so there is no shortage of experience at the position. Matt Youmans did a great job looking at the preseason QB depth charts.

These are two solid organizations, but Cleveland’s depth is thoroughly impressive. Green Bay will start with Love, but then turn it over to Sean Clifford and Michael Pratt. With Josh Jacobs dinged and MarShawn Lloyd out, the Packers are very thin at running back.

Neither coach has found a ton of success in the preseason, with LaFleur coming in at 5-8 SU and Stefanski at 5-4, but he was 3-0 in his first preseason. I don’t know that there’s a big edge in that regard, but Cleveland’s roster seems a good bit deeper, especially at the QB position.

Pick: Browns -2.5

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 38)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

It will be a bit of an early start for the Broncos, who will play an 11 a.m. body clock kickoff against the Colts. Sean Payton put out a depth chart on Tuesday and told reporters that he “spent like two minutes on it”. The veteran head coach seemed to be turning in work for the sake of turning it in, but it makes me think that part of him has no idea where this roster currently sits.

All of the Denver QBs should play, including Jarrett Stidham, who tops the depth chart. Stidham and Bo Nix are trading reps, with Zach Wilson also on the list. We’ll see if Shane Steichen opts to send out Anthony Richardson, who was knocked out for the season in Week 5 last year. He may not even use Joe Flacco, who sits behind Richardson as the backup. Steichen did use his starters last year in the preseason opener.

If he doesn’t this line will move and Sam Ehlinger will likely start and get the bulk of the reps. He didn’t record any pass attempts last season, but started a few games in 2022 and is very familiar with all of the personnel here, as the Colts are running back a very similar roster to last year.

With the travel, early start, and Payton still working through what his team will actually be, I like the home team here.

Pick: Colts -1.5

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