The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for Super Bowl LIX. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for Super Bowl LIX, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* PHILADELPHIA is 21-8 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5) 

* KANSAS CITY is 56-38-1 ATS (59.6%) in road/neutral games since 2014
Trend Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs. PHI) 

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS: PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+2.7 difference)

Super Bowl LIX Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Super Bowl LIX as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here are the systems for Super Bowl LIX. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups have actually been quite sharp, as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the exact same level in each season. This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY 

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward… 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, a ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA ML

These next systems cover totals… 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for the super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Match (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): KC-PHI

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Match (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): KC-PHI

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(109) KANSAS CITY vs (110) PHILADELPHIA
* KANSAS CITY is 20-10 SU but 6-22 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 56-38-1 ATS (59.6%) in road/neutral games since 2014
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on 9-3 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on 15-3 SU and 12-5 ATS surge in non-conference games
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 29-10 SU and 24-13 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trends Match: 3 PLAYS, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs. PHI), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 21-8 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5) 

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following NFL betting trend systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for Super Bowl LIX. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS THIS WEEK 

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+1.4)

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+2.7)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: KC-PHI UNDER 48.5 (-0.3) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+1.1) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: KC-PHI OVER 48.5 (+0.9)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(109) KANSAS CITY vs (110) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 7-3 in the last 10  meetings between PHI and KC
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* KANSAS CITY is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five versus Philadelphia but did lose last year
Trend Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY

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