Quaker State 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
After a nice simulation run at Chicagoland, where almost all of my top underdogs to consider fared well, we move on to Atlanta for the running of the Quaker State 400. This week’s NASCAR Cup Series race will mark the first time that we visit a track for the second time this season, as EchoPark Speedway hosts the action on Sunday evening.
Does this give bettors an advantage having seen the racing at a venue a little over four months ago? Well, yes and no. We know who ran well here back in February, but because the racing here has been so electric over the last few seasons, the handicap-ability grade is D, as anything can and typically does happen. Underdogs are usually a great option at Atlanta, and they are priced right. However, just know that 38 cars over the last four races here have DNF’d because of accidents.
With all due respect to Daytona and Talladega, the most exciting track to watch races at over the last few seasons has been EchoPark Speedway, formerly known as Atlanta Motor Speedway. Since major track renovations back in 2022, which involved higher banking in the turns and a narrower racing surface, this facility has become somewhat of a “mini superspeedway.” The action is fast and furious, there is a lot of passing and continuous action on nearly every lap, and because of that, things often get crazy. So, while the races here are intense, it does make handicapping them a challenge. If you recall, we pegged the winner here the first time around, with Tyler Reddick bringing home the checkered flag at +2000 odds! He, along with the Penske team and perhaps a couple of Hendrick Motorsports drivers, figure to be the men to beat.
The odds board for this week at DraftKings shows Reddick, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott (each +900) as the co-favorites, followed by William Byron and Kyle Larson (+1000). Blaney is the highest-rated driver by track on my simulation this week, while Elliott is the defending champion of this race. Byron was the dominant driver on Sunday at Chicagoland but came up short behind JGR teammates Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell after he was passed on the final pit sequence. Larson was my pick to win and led a bunch of laps early, but an on-track mistake cost him his car for the late laps.
As I indicated earlier, the best part about what happened at Chicagoland last weekend was my TOP UNDERDOG picks, as two of them, Briscoe and Bell, finished 1-2 while Bubba Wallace was sixth. Elsewhere, the results were pretty good as well. Here are the other results from the Eero 400 and how they affected our season numbers to date.
Initial Chicagoland simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +0.35 units for the season
Final Chicagoland Simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +32.55 units for the season!
Final Chicagoland Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +23.85 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Chicagoland projections: one winner, two losers, Bell +400 – total return +1.5 units – NOW +2.5 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Chicagoland projections: three winners, two losers, Hamlin -225, Bell +200, Briscoe +250 – total return +2.5 units – Now -11.75 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Chicagoland projections: six winners (Briscoe, Bell, Hamlin, Wallace, Byron, Gibbs), four losers, – total return -2.45 units – Now -38.5 units for the season
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter …
Final simulation top 5 Chicagoland projections: one winner, four losers, Hamlin -225 – total return -4 units – Now -30.1 units for the season
Top Chicagoland long shots to win: one winner (Briscoe +14 units), three losers – total return +11 units – Now +2 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Chicagoland: Gibbs (8th), Blaney (7th), Logano (12th), Chastain (18th) – Now 55 for 74 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
My favorites to fade didn’t hit real well, but I was able to nail Briscoe as a top underdog to get the win.
Looking ahead to Atlanta now on Sunday, here are the leaders at Atlanta in the last four races over the last two years. Again, I have decided to limit the number of drivers I am looking at in these stat leaders to those most offered on the typical betting platforms:
Average STARTING POSITION last four Atlanta Races
1. Joey Logano: 3.5
2. Josh Berry: 4.75
3. Ryan Blaney: 7
4. Brad Keselowski: 9.75
5. Austin Cindric: 10.25
6. Chris Buescher: 11.25
…
26. Ross Chastain: 26.5
27. Erik Jones: 27.5
28. Christopher Bell: 29.5
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 30.25
30. Connor Zilisch: 33.5
31. Denny Hamlin: 34.25
Average RUNNING POSITION last four Atlanta Races
1. Tyler Reddick: 10.75
2. Chase Elliott: 11
3. Alex Bowman: 11.5
4. William Byron: 12.5
5. Joey Logano: 12.75
6. Austin Cindric: 13
…
26. Austin Dillon: 22.5
27. John Hunter Nemechek: 22.5
28. Daniel Suarez: 22.5
29. Erik Jones: 22.75
30. Chase Briscoe: 23.5
31. Denny Hamlin: 24.75
Average LAPS LED last four Atlanta Races
1. Austin Cindric: 43
2. Joey Logano: 42.25
3. Tyler Reddick: 17.75
4. Ty Gibbs: 17.25
5. Kyle Larson: 15
6. Brad Keselowski: 14
…
26. Connor Zilisch: 0
27. AJ Allmendinger: 0
28. Noah Gragson: 0
29. Austin Dillon: 0
30. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
31. Erik Jones: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four Atlanta Races
1. Joey Logano: 100.45
2. Tyler Reddick: 97.03
3. Ryan Blaney: 94.9
4. Chase Elliott: 94.78
5. Austin Cindric: 91.75
6. William Byron: 89.85
…
26. Denny Hamlin: 61.63
27. Erik Jones: 59.65
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 59.2
29. Michael McDowell: 57.8
30. Austin Dillon: 56.48
31. Noah Gragson: 52.78
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four Atlanta Races
1. Chase Elliott: 220.5
2. William Byron: 203.75
3. Tyler Reddick: 196
4. Joey Logano: 188
5. Austin Cindric: 183.5
6. Alex Bowman: 178.25
…
26. Daniel Suarez: 70.5
27. Michael McDowell: 61.5
28. John Hunter Nemechek: 61.25
29. Denny Hamlin: 58
30. Noah Gragson: 49.5
31. Austin Dillon: 44.75
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four Atlanta Races
1. Tyler Reddick: 7.5
2. Carson Hocevar: 8
3. Chase Elliott: 10
4. Zane Smith: 11.5
5. AJ Allmendinger: 12.67
6. Christopher Bell: 14
…
26. Chase Briscoe: 24
27. Ty Gibbs: 25
28. William Byron: 25.25
29. Austin Cindric: 25.5
30. Noah Gragson: 26.75
31. Josh Berry: 30.75
If any driver is due and hungry for a big run, it would have to be Logano. As you can see from the lists above, he has been one of the better statistical drivers of late. That said, these lists are far more balanced than we see at other tracks, as you’ll find some drivers at the top of some categories but not mentioned in others.
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers for Atlanta, in order, are Ryan Blaney, Austin Cindric, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano and Ross Chastain. In terms of recent ratings, the top 5 are Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com.
There is no practice at Atlanta. The final simulation will be made available Saturday evening after qualifying, which is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after qualifying), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Blaney, Elliott, Logano, Reddick, Byron
Top underdogs to consider (+1400 or higher): Logano, Bell, Keselowski, Cindric, Buescher
Favorites to struggle: Gibbs, Briscoe, Hamlin
The 400-mile event at named EchoPark Speedway is set for 7 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sim all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much, much more.
