Super Bowl props are not the novelty they once were. Bettors have come to expect a massive menu of prop bets for each game in the regular season, so most of what is offered for the Super Bowl is now par for the course for a bettor who wagers every weekend. Still, there are some prop bets that are unique each season, and among those are cross-sport props.

It is a simple concept: Match up a player’s statistical category in one sport with a player in the Super Bowl, set a line and watch the wagers roll in. There are markets involving each sport every year, but for the sake of this article we’re going to focus on the NBA cross-sport props. 

 

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Handicapping the cross-sport props is a fun exercise each year. If a bettor can nail the game-flow of a Super Bowl in their handicap these props can provide quite a bit of value. Let’s dive in and discuss the best cross-sport props I could find in the market.

Super Bowl LIX Cross-Sport Props

Kansas City Chiefs 1Q Points (+140) vs Cade Cunningham 1Q Points (-145) | Tie (+1400)

Philadelphia is an incredible defensive team. It was second in the regular season in EPA per play allowed and defensive success rate. The Eagles also allowed the fewest yards per attempt (4.1) and lowest success rate (29.9%) on passes behind the line of scrimmage, and they face an offense which is very reliant on such attempts.

I believe the Chiefs will have an inefficient showing on offense in the Super Bowl. Kansas City struggled to find consistent offense against Houston, a unit which is one of the best in the NFL, but still not as good as Philadelphia. Even in the scripted portion of the game, it would not come as a shock if the Chiefs manage to be shutout in the first quarter of play on Sunday.

Cade Cunningham averages 5.5 first quarter points per game this season. He faces Charlotte on Sunday. The Hornets allow 115.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, but more importantly, they do not have a true defensive match for Cunningham. Cunningham has also really turned up his scoring since the beginning of January. Over his last 17 games he is averaging 29.1 points on 46.1% shooting from the floor. The price on Cunningham for this prop is a reasonable one to lay.

Play: Cade Cunningham 1Q Points (-145)

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts (-120) vs Scottie Barnes Points+Rebounds+Assists (+110) | Tie (+1300)

How you handicap game-flow is obviously very important when attacking props. My handicap is that Philadelphia will be in control of this game with its defense, and that the Eagles will be able to eventually hold a strong lead in this game. If I am right, that would mean that Mahomes is in a position to throw the ball more than usual.

If you go by averages for both Mahomes and Scottie Barnes on the season, you get a tight matchup. Mahomes averaged 36.3 attempts per game in the regular season. Barnes is averaging 34.1 points, rebounds and assists per game. The edge goes to Mahomes.

The edge grows if you also factor in Barnes’ opponent on Sunday: the Houston Rockets. Houston has allowed just 110.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season. It has multiple defenders to not only put on Barnes, but to also limit the scoring opportunities of his opponents should they receive a pass from Barnes. It would be safe to not expect a big game from Barnes against Houston, which would allow Mahomes to become the victor in this prop.

Play: Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts (-120)

Tyrese Maxey Points (-4.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles Total Points

Almost every metric and statistic points to Kansas City being an average defensive team. It was 17th in opponent EPA per play, 15th in defensive success rate and 12th in yards per play allowed. There is no one category in which this unit has been overtly dominant. Meanwhile, Philadelphia was sixth in EPA per play and it owns an extremely explosive running game. The Eagles were fourth in second-level yards per carry (1.43) and second in open field yards per carry (1.44).

I don’t believe the Chiefs will be able to contain the Eagles’ offense on Sunday. Philadelphia’s team total is about 23.5 points in the market, but I believe they can surpass that mark. If the Eagles can it would put the onus on Maxey to have a great game against Milwaukee. The problem for Maxey bettors in this prop is the status of his fellow stars. Both Paul George and Joel Embiid were back against Detroit on Friday. It was a pathetic showing, but their presence took away from Maxey’s workload. Maxey led the 76ers in scoring with 27 points, but that mark would not cover this number if the Eagles reach their team total in the Super Bowl.

The injury report will be important here. If Embiid and George play, this is a play on the Eagles. Should Maxey be flying solo against the Bucks’ weak perimeter defense, then this is one not worth playing. Assuming the whole trio plays for the 76ers, this is a play on the Eagles this Sunday.

Play: Eagles Total Points (+4.5)

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