WNBA Picks
We split our two plays from the article yesterday, as Paige Bueckers unexpectedly didn’t play for Dallas, and that wasn’t announced until after my article was published. Apologies for that. Nonetheless, we cashed the Fever Under easily and TSI nailed the spread perfectly on that game. Sunday has a couple of games on deck, although none as exciting as the Lynx/Aces last night, but I digress. Here are the TSI projections for the New York Liberty vs Washington Mystics and the Toronto Tempo vs Atlanta Dream.
New York Liberty (-12.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 166
New York has turned things around quickly after a lackluster start. They’ve now won six in a row by an average score of 89-78. They’re taking on the Washington Mystics, who sit just below .500 on the year as a younger, more developmental team. New York has posted a +9.5 power rating over this win streak, and has been averaging three more and allowing eight fewer points per game over that span than they did previously. Washington has been a shell of themselves on the road, about five points worse in net scoring and about 10 points worse from a power rating standpoint. They got blown out by Atlanta in their last road game. In their three road games against what I would consider playoff-caliber teams, they’ve registered a -13.5 rating. TSI projects New York -11.5 with a total of 165. I hate that this line has moved so much, because yesterday’s -9.5 was definitely bet-able for the Liberty, but I’m going to have to pass altogether at this point.
Toronto Tempo (+6.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 172.5
Toronto is coming off a couple of nailbiter, coinflip games that they went 1-1 in; beating Connecticut in OT before losing to Washington in the final seconds. But, they’re 4-2 in their last six, improving their offense six points per game and their defense by 2 points over that span. They’ve been about a point better at home than on the road from a power rating standpoint and four points better in net scoring. Atlanta has more drastic home/road splits, where they’re 4 points worse in net scoring on the road and 8.5 points worse from a power rating standpoint. TSI projects Atlanta -6.5 with a total of 170, and I’d strongly lean Toronto here based on the home/road splits, and I’m going to bet the Under. Atlanta road games have averaged five points per game fewer than their home games, and Toronto home games have averaged 12.5 points fewer than their road games.
Bet: Under 172.5 (Play to 170.5)
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