Super Bowl LIX Predictions and Best Bets from Matt Youmans:

It’s tough to resist the temptation of riding with Patrick Mahomes. When everything is on the line, whether it’s late in the fourth quarter or in overtime, Mahomes has the magic touch. Mahomes and the Chiefs are good and lucky, which is why Kansas City is in a position to pull off the first three-peat in the 59-year Super Bowl era.

We have not witnessed a Super Bowl with this much historical significance since 2008, when Tom Brady and the Patriots were one win from achieving the first 19-0 season in NFL history. As a 12-point favorite, New England was upset 17-14 by the New York Giants.

 

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Kansas City, which went off as a small underdog of fewer than three points in each of the past two title games, is a 1-point favorite against Philadelphia on Sunday in New Orleans. This is the Super Bowl matchup I predicted in VSiN’s preseason magazine, and I’m sticking with the Eagles as my pick to win it.

A year ago, when the Super Bowl was in Las Vegas, the Chiefs were my pick. San Francisco seemed to have it won and let it get away, with Mahomes leading the way to a 25-22 victory in overtime. Kansas City’s knack for winning close games has a lot to do with Mahomes’ magic, so it’s tough to bet against him, but in life and sports betting, we must make hard decisions.

In August, I bet the Eagles at 16-1 odds to win the championship. Instead of hedging that bet, I’ll try to hit a middle and hope to bet the Chiefs live at +3 or better. Mahomes and the Chiefs trailed in the fourth quarter in all three of their Super Bowl wins, including the 38-35 victory over Philadelphia two years ago.

The Eagles’ edge in this matchup should be the running of Saquon Barkley behind a dominant offensive line. Philadelphia’s defensive line is another strength that will be needed to contain Mahomes in his pursuit of history.

Super Bowl LIX Pick: Eagles 24, Chiefs 23; Eagles +7.5 with Over 42 (6.5-point teaser)

My prop plays on Super Bowl LIX:

Eagles team total Over 23.5 points (-130)
Philadelphia has a 15-1 record since Week 6, scoring 24 points or more in 12 of those 16 games. In the four games the Eagles fell short of this team total, they scored 20, 20, 22 and 22 points. When these teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, the Eagles led 24-14 at halftime. Philadelphia has a better offense now. That’s due mostly to Barkley, who is likely to put up big numbers against Kansas City’s mediocre run defense.

Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (-115)
Philadelphia’s quarterback has scored in two of three playoff games this year, and he had three rushing touchdowns against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl two years ago. Hurts to score two touchdowns is also worth a shot at +500.

Hurts Under 38.5 rushing yards (-110)
A knee injury limited Hurts to 10 carries for 16 yards in the NFC title game against Washington. With Barkley expected to get 20-plus carries in this game, Hurts could have fewer designed runs and will need to break a couple of long gains on scrambles to get Over this total.

Mahomes Over 6.5 rushing attempts (+115)
In the playoffs, Mahomes had 11 rushing attempts against Buffalo and seven against Houston. He’s not going to be shy to take off and run in the most important game of his career. This total opened 5.5 and has been bet up by sharp money for good reason. 

Mahomes anytime touchdown (+375)
This price is too good to refuse on a quarterback who had two rushing touchdowns in the AFC title game against the Bills.

Longest made field goal Over 47.5 (-110); and Harrison Butker to make 50-yard or longer field goal (+300) for half-unit each
The conditions in the Superdome are obviously ideal for kickers, and Butker’s long-range accuracy gives the Chiefs an edge in the kicking game.

Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes (-120)
This simple prop is one of my go-to plays; it hit in the Chiefs’ past two Super Bowls and is 8-3 in the past 11.

Will the game be decided by exactly one point (16-1); and will the game be decided by exactly three points (+375) for half-unit each
The Super Bowl has been decided by three points three years in a row — Chiefs 25, 49ers 22; Chiefs 38, Eagles 35; Rams 23, Bengals 20 — and I played this prop all three times, so I’ll stick with it. Only one Super Bowl has been decided by one point — Giants 20, Bills 19 in 1991 — and this long-shot price ties in with my 24-23 score prediction.

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