Week 10 NFL Predictions
This NFL season has been my best one to date, betting-wise, but Week 9 was not kind to me. I broke my own bankroll management rule and added units to Texans (Stroud injury), Chiefs (clunker but still could’ve won), and the Cowboys (got destroyed by Jacoby Brissett). That’s what I get, and there’s a lesson to be learned there. I’m extremely happy with the overall model success, so I am ready to fire again on the Week 10 slate, which I will be making some in-person bets on in Las Vegas this weekend, so I’m definitely looking forward to that. Anyway, here are the week 10 early week bets I like from the T Shoe Index:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) vs San Francisco 49ers, O/U 49.5
I usually tend to lean more towards spread bets in these articles, but some totals really caught my eye when comparing my numbers. Both of these teams hold opponents below their season averages in points scored – the Rams doing so by 6 ppg below opponents’ averages – and both offenses barely score above opponents’ averages (1.5 ppg on average between the two). TSI only makes this total 43, and these teams are trending even lower scoring than that. Over the last three games’ worth of data, I’d only project the total at 33.5. When TSI and the “Last 3” formula agreed the last two weeks, those totals have gone 7-3.
NFL Pick: Under 49.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 45.5
Pittsburgh is coming off of probably the best NFL win of the season, as they took down the dominant Indianapolis Colts and brought QB Daniel Jones back down to Earth after a blazing hot start to the season. Now, they’ll travel to LA to take on Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers, and I think this is a great spot for the Chargers to get a win and cover here. TSI projects LA -5.5, and even the market estimation formula I use makes this more like LA -9, so we’re getting a great number without the hook on LA early in the week. The Steelers are just 1-2 ATS away from home this season, and I think this is a tough travel spot for them after such a huge win last week.
NFL Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -3
For more Week 10 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 10 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
