EPL Best Bets and Predictions January 25-26:
Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Liverpool vs. Ipswich
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I looked at this slate and thought most of the fixtures looked tough to call. However, after digging a little deeper, I actually found a few good angles of attack, but this selection stood out, so it was an easy decision to make it my best bet.
Liverpool’s odds to win this clash are -1100. With such a hot favorite, it can sometimes be impossible to get them onside at a reasonable price. The handicap line is set at -2.75, meaning to cash that ticket in full, you would need the Reds to win by at least four goals. A word of warning for anyone taking that on is that they have only won by three or more goals in one of their last 16 home league games, and it is 36 such games since they posted a victory by four or more goals.
For my selection, they only need to win by a single goal, as long as they keep a clean sheet. A Liverpool win to nil (or win and under 0.5 Ipswich goals) is the bet, and it is priced at a very attractive-looking -120.
Just as I was starting to buy into the theory of Ipswich having a great chance of staying up, I witnessed a big reality check. Their performance last Thursday against Brighton was so bad, I knew I had to reevaluate my original thought that they would be competitive at home to Manchester City on Sunday. That proved to be the case as they went on to get thumped 6-0
I still think Ipswich are an okay side and one that still holds a fighting chance of survival, but their last two performances have fallen well short of what is needed. Drill into the details and look at their results against the top teams in the division this term and there is a clear trend.
Their campaign opened against their opponents here and ended in a 2-0 defeat at Portman Road. Arsenal and Nottingham Forest both beat them 1-0. Newcastle eased to a 4-0 win, and, of course, there was the 6-0 defeat to City last weekend.
As is often the case with newly promoted sides, their fate of staying in the EPL is not determined by the results they get against the top six, but it is all about winning the games against teams around them at the bottom of the table.
After this fixture, Kieran McKenna’s side faces rock-bottom Southampton, a must-win game. Therefore, this trip to Anfield is not their priority. It is about avoiding another humiliation and, most importantly, not picking up any injuries.
Liverpool keeps finding ways to win. They left it until the final moments to get past Brentford with two late goals from substitute Darwin Nunez, the sign of champions, and in midweek, they maintained their 100% Champions League record by beating Lille. Ominously for the Tractor Boys, Mo Salah was back on the scoresheet after a two-game blank, something of a drought for him.
Of their last seven league defeats, Ipswich have failed to score in six of them. Expect that run to be extended here against a Liverpool side with too much firepower, especially against a team with more important fixtures on the horizon.
EPL Pick: Liverpool win to nil at -120.
Crystal Palace vs. Brentford
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
It’s a welcome return to my favorite market here, which is, of course, Under 2.5 goals. I have been waiting for the right opportunity, and this looks perfect. It doesn’t look like there will be many goals in this one at all.
In 11 league games at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace have scored just 10 goals, with only Ipswich (8) and Southampton (7) having scored fewer on home soil. Combine that with visitors Brentford, who although they have scored goals for fun at home, on the road they are the fourth-lowest scorers with just 11 in 10 fixtures. They have looked to improve a rotten road record and posted two 0-0 draws in the space of four games. They have now kept successive clean sheets away from home.
Last week, I went to watch Palace at West Ham, and although the hosts were terrible, the Eagles looked so strong defensively. Their three central defenders, Guehi, Lacroix and Richards looked superb, forming rock-solid foundations for Palace’s flair players to go on and win the game.
Since Brentford’s promotion to the EPL, these two sides have been evenly matched with five draws across their seven meetings, three ending 1-1 with two goalless. Despite very contrasting starts to this campaign, there is now only one point and one place between them.
Oliver Glasner has his side well organized, well drilled, and as a result, very hard to beat, suffering just one defeat in the last 11 league games. Their last four games across all competitions have cashed for Under 2.5 goals bettors and it is now five of the last six.
As was the case with the game I watched last week, this is another London derby that promises to be tight and low-scoring, especially with the visitors in a poor run of form and nowhere near as open as they are on home soil.
EPL Pick: Under 2.5 goals at +110.
Manchester City vs. Chelsea
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
My final selection is following a trend that has been largely profitable for me and that is fading the fallen champions of England, Manchester City. From identifying this bet, there has been money for Chelsea after Pep’s men fell apart once again in the Champions League at PSG. But it is still a big value play.
What has happened to this side over the course of the season is staggering, and it keeps repeating. City have now thrown away a two-goal lead on three occasions during the current campaign. So even when they have appeared to be “back,” they have found ways to prove that wrong mid-game.
News broke this week of Guardiola’s personal problems, which clearly hasn’t helped him over the course of this terrible loss of form. It is a mess, and now because of that defeat in Paris, they face their biggest game of the season next week when they need to beat Club Brugge to stand a chance of qualifying for the next phase of the Champions League.
I also feel talk of recent improvement after four wins in five before Paris has been exaggerated. Those victories came against newly promoted sides Ipswich and Leicester, an injury-ravaged West Ham at the end of the Lopetegui era and fourth-tier Salford in the FA Cup.
Since October, they have fallen short against the better clubs. Losing to Spurs twice, Bournemouth, Sporting, Brighton, Liverpool, Juventus, Manchester United, Aston Villa and now PSG. They even drew with Feyenoord, Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford.
It is impossible to bet them to win here at -105 and so Chelsea +0.5 Asian Handicap at -134 is the play. In essence, fading City, so a draw or Chelsea win cashes the ticket.
Pep’s former assistant, Enzo Maresca, brings his young, fearless squad to the Etihad with nothing to lose. They are full of goals, full of desire to prove themselves as a top-four team and visit Manchester, unlike the hosts, having had no midweek fixture. Beating Wolves on Monday night leaves them plenty of recovery time ahead of this clash.
Chelsea has the tools to hurt this City side that still looks so vulnerable defensively. We should see another exciting match, and it is one I am very happy to fade City in once more.
EPL Pick: Chelsea +0.5 Asian Handicap at -134.
