MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, June 25.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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12:35 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has had command issues this season, posting a 4.62 ERA with 5.2 walks per nine innings allowed, but he faces a Mariners lineup that ranks 22nd in scoring with 4.1 runs per game. Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller owns a 1.58 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts and 1.1 walks per nine innings this season. Although Luis Castillo may piggyback off Miller and owns a 5.22 ERA this season, the Mariners bullpen overall ranks sixth in ERA at 3.43.
Pick: Mariners vs. Pirates Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1
3:45 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants
Athletics starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs owns a 5.55 ERA with 2.3 home runs allowed per nine innings this season and has surrendered at least four runs in four straight starts. However, he has been significantly better on the road with a 4.28 ERA away from home and fewer than 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Giants offense that ranks 24th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game.
Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has pitched better than his 4.15 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.00 fielding independent with 10 strikeouts per nine innings and only 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Athletics vs. Giants Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.6
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez has been magnificent this season with a 1.80 ERA while allowing just 0.6 home runs and 1.7 walks per nine innings. The length he provides has limited bullpen usage, as he has pitched at least 5 2/3 innings in 10 straight starts.
Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli owns a 4.07 ERA but a lower 3.50 fielding independent with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings and 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Phillies vs. Nationals Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.4
7:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
After these teams played a doubleheader on Wednesday, length from the starting pitchers will be important. Cubs starting pitcher Matthew Boyd is making his first start since May 3 after posting a 6.00 ERA in five starts this season. While his 2.35 fielding independent suggests he was incredibly unlucky in that small sample, he was not sharp during his minor league rehab assignment, posting a 5.40 ERA while allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings.
Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta owns a 4.83 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings, but he has allowed only one home run per nine innings at home and is backed by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.37.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -115 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -148 and Total 7.8
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen has struggled this season, posting a 6.10 ERA with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings and a career-low 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy has also pitched to a lot of contact with just 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings, but he owns a 3.35 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that ranks 12th in scoring with 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -153
