EPL Best Bets and Predictions March 8-9:
Here are this week’s EPL predictions:
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
Anyone who has been a regular reader of this column across the season would have become familiar with my strong stance on Manchester City and how I have generally looked to fade them whenever possible. Success has been mixed, as you would expect, taking on the English champions of the last four years, but the most recent occasion, when they demolished Newcastle, stopped me in my tracks.
Now, the tide has turned. For the first time in as long as I can remember, I am betting City. Not only that, but it is also my strongest play of the weekend. Just one place and one point separate these two sides, so a win for the visitors will take them up to third in the Premier League. When you consider the season they have had, that is remarkable.
Being able to back them here at -113 is just too big for me not to get involved. Putting that into context, when the two sides met here last season, Pep’s men were priced around -400.
This isn’t solely a price play, though. At this moment in time, Nottingham Forest are having a little blip in their form. They haven’t won in regular time across their last five matches in all competitions.
Being taken to extra-time and penalties by Ipswich on Monday wouldn’t have helped their preparations either. Key players like Morgan Gibbs-White, Elliot Anderson and top-scorer Chris Wood all had to come off the bench, while Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi both played at least 110 minutes.
Since returning to the Premier League in 2022, Forest have failed to beat City, picking up only one draw from five meetings, conceding 14 goals and scoring just once. Now, with the added pressure of this being a top four battle, I think it could be too much for them, while the visitors refreshed from a rare blank week are used to these types of fixtures season after season.
Erling Haaland has had his game time managed after picking up a knock, only starting one of the last four fixtures, but I expect him to feature from kickoff here. That is a massive boost for City, and I expect the market to react heavily in their favor once that news is confirmed.
Coincidentally, he returned from injury in this match last season and made a 28-minute cameo appearance, scoring his side’s second goal in a 2-0 win.
The price, City’s experience, and head-to-head record all mean this bet is too tempting to ignore.
EPL Pick: Manchester City to win at -113.
Chelsea vs. Leicester
Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET
There is a massive battle going on down at the bottom of the Premier League to prove who is the worst side in the division – or so it seems at least. On current form and the underlying metrics to support that, that team is Leicester who are somehow putting in worse performances than Southampton.
Up front, they are relying on a 38-year-old Jamie Vardy to score goals, but he just hasn’t quite got the legs anymore, especially when he is limited to feeding off scraps. As a result, they have just stopped scoring goals, particularly on the road.
The Foxes have lost their last five matches and, quite convincingly, failed to score in four of those defeats. With Chelsea priced at -560, it is incredible to think that saying they will win to nil boosts that price to +110, considering that has been the outcome in six of Leicester’s last seven league games across all venues.
We saw a really strong form line from the Blues last time out as they cruised to a 4-0 home win over Southampton in a game they never looked like conceding a good chance, let alone a goal. That was a result achieved with Nicolas Jackson out injured and Cole Palmer desperately out of form.
Earlier in the season, it would have been unthinkable for Chelsea to score four goals without Palmer being involved. One of the great strengths of Enzo Maresca’s side is their squad depth and that there are goals throughout the team.
Leicester leak chances and goals alarmingly, with a shellshocked Ruud van Nistelrooy looking lost as to how he can solve that. With no threat at the other end, there looks to be only one possible outcome.
EPL Pick: Chelsea win to nil at +110.
Brentford vs. Aston Villa
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
I like this spot for Brentford, so for them to win is my final bet of the weekend. They haven’t played in 10 days but face an Aston Villa side, who, in that period, have played an FA Cup tie against Cardiff and on Tuesday picked up a huge win at Club Brugge in the Champions League.
Yes, Unai Emery has a big enough squad to rotate, with the excellent January signings of Rashford, Asensio and Malen adding to an already high-quality group, but there will inevitably be one eye on the second leg against Brugge on Wednesday. Their record in the game after a Champions League fixture this season has been poor, to say the least, with only one win from eight attempts.
Brentford are well rested. They always look to come flying out of the traps and play with that aggressive, intense, high-energy style. They are a side that seems to get stronger the longer the game goes on, and that makes them the worst opponents the Villains could face.
Incredibly, only the bottom four have picked up fewer points on the road this term than Aston Villa, with four wins and seven defeats to show from their 13 games on their travels. Much of that comes down to a terrible defensive record which has seen them only keep three clean sheets, two of which coming at Villa Park.
Having won seven of their opening eight home league games, Thomas Frank’s side are winless in six at the Gtech but would have gained confidence from draws with Manchester City and Everton. With firepower that still sees them as the top home goal scorers in the league they can go one better here and get back to winning ways.
EPL Pick: Brentford to win at +133.
