MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, May 5.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals
Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley has looked like a new man this season, posting a 2.85 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings after a shaky 2025 that saw his ERA shoot up to 5.05, while Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli has been getting tons of strikeouts, recording 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but owns a 3.82 ERA with 4.1 walks per nine innings. As a whole, the Nationals have struggled at home this season with a 4–12 record compared to a 12–7 record away from home.
Pick: Twins Moneyline +105
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -126
6:45 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins
Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has had a tumultuous start to the season, posting a 5.46 ERA while issuing 4.5 walks with just 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings, while Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has pitched to a lot of soft contact, getting only 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings but has been effective with a 3.05 ERA while leading the league in innings pitched at 47 1/3. He faces an Orioles lineup that ranks 24th in scoring away from home with 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -120 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -172 and Total 7.9
7:10 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has looked like his old self this season with a 2.01 ERA and 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings, while Yankees starting pitcher Elmer Rodriguez makes his second career start after struggling with command in his MLB debut, allowing two runs in four innings while issuing four walks. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks seventh in ERA at 3.51, while the Rangers have the best bullpen ERA in the league at 2.74.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline +102
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -106
7:40 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has had a strong start to the 2026 season with a 2.70 ERA and 11 strikeouts per nine innings, but his 3.89 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings is a concern. While the Royals entered the series 24th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, the fences being moved in at Kauffman Stadium have led to dramatic home-and-road splits, with the Royals averaging just over 5.4 runs per game at home compared to just over 2.9 runs per game away from home. The Royals have also struggled with their pitching, entering the series 27th in bullpen ERA at 5.03, while starting pitcher Noah Cameron has a 5.40 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Guardians vs. Royals Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
7:45 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat has struggled this season, posting a 6.75 ERA with 2.4 home runs and 5.1 walks per nine innings allowed, while Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante has a solid 3.73 ERA this season, but his 4.68 fielding independent with four walks per nine innings is a concern, especially with the Cardinals bullpen ranking 26th in ERA at 4.92. The Brewers entered the series fourth in run production with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -105 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -127 and Total 8.7
8:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
Coors Field has not been kind to Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen this season, as he has an 8.56 ERA in his three starts at home with 17.1 hits per nine innings allowed, while Mets starting pitcher has seen his ERA jump to 3.52 this season after it was 2.70 last season, allowing 3.8 walks per nine innings. While both offenses have had difficulty scoring—with the Rockies 19th in scoring at 4.3 runs per game and the Mets 29th with fewer than 3.5 runs per game entering the series—being at the MLB ballpark with the highest factor in increasing offense should boost scoring.
Pick: Mets vs. Rockies Over 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 11.2
9:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners
Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has begun the 2026 season strong with a 1.88 ERA, allowing 0.4 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings, while Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has a 3.00 ERA with a 3.66 fielding independent and a career-low 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Braves offense that leads the league in scoring with nearly 5.9 runs per game, and the Braves bullpen nearly matches that of the Mariners, as Seattle is third in bullpen ERA at 3.20 while the Braves are fourth at 3.22.
Pick: Braves Moneyline +134
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -104
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has had a career renaissance to begin the 2026 season with a 3.03 ERA, though his 4.85 fielding independent is a bit of a concern with 4.4 walks and 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, while Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler owns a 4.97 ERA with an even higher 5.70 fielding independent with 1.6 home runs and 6.6 walks per nine innings. He faces a Diamondbacks squad that is 11th in scoring with just under 4.6 runs per game, and although Pittsburgh entered the series sixth in run production with five runs per game, that dips to 4.2 runs per game away from home.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -113 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -133 and Total 9.2
