The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff games on 5/4 and 5/5. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 87-49 SU and 83-51-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs PHI)

* Upsets have occurred in second round game 1s with lines of -5.5 or less – favorites of 5.5 points or less are on a 8-19 SU and 5-21-1 ATS (19.2%) skid.
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3.5 vs CLE)

* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 190-127 SU and 179-131-7 ATS (57.7%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs MIN), LA LAKERS (+15.5 at OKC)

Trends by Line/Total Range

Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 18-11 SU but just 8-21 ATS (38.1%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 72-52-1 ATS (58.1%) in that span.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL ATS): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs MIN), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

Trends by Game Number

Including a 0-4 SU and ATS record in 2025, second round home teams haven’t performed anywhere near the level of the first round in game 1s lately, as they are just 26-22 SU and 21-26-1 ATS (44.7%) since 2013. There have only been two recent road favorites.

Over the total is now 21-14-1 in the L36 (60%) non-neutral game 1s of the second round NBA playoffs.

After last year’s four big home favorites of 6 points or more went 0-4 SU and ATS, those teams are now on a 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS (33.3%) skid.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs MIN), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

Upsets have also occurred in game 1s with lines of -5.5 or less – favorites of 5.5-points or less are on an 8-19 SU and 5-21-1 ATS (19.2%) skid.
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3.5 vs CLE)

Trends by Seed Number

#1 seeds are on a 15-8 SU and 13-10 ATS (56.5%) at home in the last five seasons in the second round, turning around a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
Trend Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-3.5 vs CLE), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

#3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 40-23-1 (63.5%) in the last 64.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 213.5)

Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 18-40 SU and 25-32-1 ATS (43.9%) as such since 2015.
Trend Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+3.5 at DET), LA LAKERS (+15.5 at OKC)

First round upset winners are brutal as large underdogs, as teams seeded 5th or lower have gone 4-33 SU and 14-23 ATS (37.8%) when playing as dogs of 6 points or more.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 at NYK), MINNESOTA (+11.5 at SAS)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 87-49 SU and 83-51-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs PHI)

* PHILADELPHIA is 31-15 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 194-131 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over last two seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in PHI-NYK (o/u at 213.5)

* SAN ANTONIO is 13-7 Over the total playing on 3+ Days Rest since February 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SAS (o/u at 218.5)

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 134-113 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-SAS (o/u at 218.5), LAL-OKC (o/u at 213.5)

* CLEVELAND is just 23-25 SU and 15-33 ATS (31.3%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+3.5 at DET)

* DETROIT is 19-10 Under the total (65.5%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 214.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for the games:

Monday, May 4, 2026

(551) PHILADELPHIA at (552) NEW YORK
* Road teams are on a 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS run in the PHI-NYK divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 at NYK)

(553) MINNESOTA at (554) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total has converted in four of the last five meetings between MIN and SAS
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SAS (o/u at 218.5)

Tuesday, May 5, 2026

(555) CLEVELAND at (556) DETROIT
* Under the total is 13-3 in the last 16 of the Cavs-Pistons divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 214.5)

(557) LA LAKERS at (558) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 6-1 SU and ATS surge against LAL since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 192-71 SU and 152-110-1 ATS (58%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR DETROIT vs CLE (-3.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 145-127 (53.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 364-295 (55.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-SAS (spread -11.5, total 218.5), LAL-OKC (spread -15.5, total 213.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 104-43 SU and 86-68-3 ATS (55.8%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs PHI)

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 27-18 Over (60%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-DET (o/u at 214.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Playoff large wins also lead to Unders
In the playoffs, NBA teams off a 30-point win have had their next game totals go Under at a 30-15-1 (66.7%) rate in the last five seasons (games also include if the previous game was in the regular season).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 213.5)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 355-269 SU but 291-318-15 ATS (47.8%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 52-78-1 ATS (40%).
System Match (FADE ATS): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs PHI)

Unusual shooting performance
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 415-359 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 214.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 363-368 SU and 333-390-8 ATS (46.1%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 190-127 SU and 179-131-7 ATS (57.7%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs MIN), LA LAKERS (+15.5 at OKC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 162-29 SU but 83-105-3 ATS (44.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Monday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, CLEVELAND ML, LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-SAS, LAL-OKC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MIN-SAS

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: LA LAKERS +15.5 (+0.2)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -11.5 (+1.8)
2. DETROIT -3.5 (+1.2)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND +3.5 (+0.6)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -7.5 (+5.4)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+1.7)
3. SAN ANTONIO -11.5 (+1.0)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHI-NYK OVER 213.5 (+0.9)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-OKC UNDER 213.5 (-0.4)
2. CLE-DET UNDER 214.5 (-0.3)
3. MIN-SAS UNDER 218.5 (-0.1)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -11.5 (+2.0)
2. DETROIT -3.5 (+1.3)
3. NEW YORK -7.5 (+1.0)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-DET OVER 214.5 (+3.4)
2. MIN-SAS OVER 218.5 (+1.1)
3. LAL-OKC OVER 213.5 (+0.8)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHI-NYK UNDER 213.5 (-2.3)

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