On Saturday, March 15th, some of the top men in the world clash in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. In the first match, Holger Rune will face Daniil Medvedev. In the second match, we’ll see Carlos Alcaraz continue his quest for three BNP Paribas Open titles in a row when he takes on Jack Draper. With that in mind, now is a good time to get into some tennis best bets. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing both matches. Also, make sure you head over to the picks page, as Gill Alexander’s plays will be there. You’ll also get some of my picks for some smaller events.
Holger Rune vs. Daniil Medvedev
Jack Draper vs. Carlos Alcaraz
If I was forced to play both of these matches individually, I’d probably take Rune on the moneyline and Alcaraz to win Over 12.5 games. Fortunately, I don’t have to do anything. Instead, I’m pairing the two matches together and putting in a two-leg parlay. That said, let’s go with Rune to snag a set against Medvedev, paired with Alcaraz to simply advance with a win over Draper.
Last year’s BNP Paribas Open quarterfinals saw Rune fall short against Medvedev, with the Russian winning 7-5, 6-4. But let’s not forget, Rune was coming off a grueling three-setter against Taylor Fritz, and the Dane has had issues with fatigue in his career. This time? He really should be fresh. Meanwhile, Medvedev’s coming off a nail-biter against Arthur Fils. That was a match that easily could have gone the Frenchman’s way, but Medvedev won a few more key points. But let’s see what happens in key moments here, as Rune is better — and more battle-tested — than Fils.
Rune’s got the goods to match Fils’ performance against Medvedev: power from the baseline, athletic prowess and extra weapons like drop shots and an advanced net game. The key for Rune? He can’t cheat himself in the return game. His break percentage is up to 21.9% this year — his best since 2022 — so he’s trending in the right direction. But he’s going to need to be as dialed in as possible here. Medvedev, like Rune, loses focus and gifts opponents break opportunities. The Russian is going to take advantage of a few of his openings, so Rune better do the same.
I’m tempted to say that Rune will earn the outright win, but I’m playing it safe with the set play. He’s had some wobbles this week, and Medvedev’s not the guy to do that against. But I genuinely do feel that Rune is due for another big breakthrough soon, so nothing would surprise me. Not even a title run.
As for Alcaraz and Draper, this one isn’t quite as tough to call. I’m not laying games or betting on straight sets — Draper’s too good for that. But Alcaraz should edge this out. Why? Indian Wells is Alcaraz’s playground: slower courts give him more time to chase down balls, and the high bounce is perfect for those heavy topspin forehands. Draper’s a top-10 talent, no doubt. But his forehand still needs some polish, so Alcaraz is going to look to avoid the Brit’s backhand and send as many balls as possible towards the left arm of Draper. In the end, Alcaraz’s game is tailor-made for these conditions, giving him the edge to clinch the win.
PARLAY: Rune +1.5 Sets & Alcaraz ML (+100 – 1.5 units)
