On Sunday, July 12, Jannik Sinner, a four-time Grand Slam champion, will be looking to prevent Alexander Zverev from winning two majors in a row, as the two will clash in the Wimbledon final. I’m dropping my favorite play for this match below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page. I usually have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on the way lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his bets.
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Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev
While Sinner has won nine matches in a row against Zverev, there’s a better case to be made for the German heading into this Wimbledon final. Zverev appears to be playing with a new sense of freedom, as he’s no longer under the pressure of trying to win his first Grand Slam. With Zverev having won the French Open, he’s no longer considered the greatest player in tennis history with zero majors. He’s free to breathe on the court again, and that has resulted in some breathtaking tennis.
Zverev was spectacular in his 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 win over Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals, and that was a player that had won seven consecutive matches in their head-to-head series. Zverev then followed that victory up with a 7-6, 6-2, 6-4 win over Arthur Fery in the semifinals, and that was one of the best matches I have ever seen him play. Of course, Fery wasn’t the most challenging opponent, but Zverev was clutch on serve, he was playing bolder tennis than usual, and his overall ball-striking was tremendous.
Perhaps Zverev’s newfound confidence will allow him to be more competitive against Sinner. If it happened, it wouldn’t completely catch me off guard. However, as someone that values traditional numbers and advanced stats, while also trying to think about matchup tactics, it’s still hard to figure out Zverev’s pathway to victory.
There’s just nothing that Zverev does at a higher level than Sinner. We used to be able to say that Zverev was the better server, but Sinner is now No. 1 on the ATP Tour when looking at hold rate (94.2%). He has become a special server, with a legitimate argument to be made that he’s the best on tour. On top of that, when looking at some of the TennisViz numbers (which feature statistics for all tournaments outside of majors), Sinner has the higher Shot Quality when looking at the forehand (8.8 vs. 8.0) and backhand (8.7 vs. 8.0) over the last 52 weeks. Sinner also has a better score when looking at returning (8.3 vs. 7.3).
With Sinner being better from both wings, and having the advantage as both a server and returner, it’s just hard to suggest anything but a comfortable victory for the Italian.
Perhaps Zverev finds a way to serve his way deep into a set, and potentially steal one, but there’s too much out there that suggests Sinner will win one of these sets in a somewhat lopsided fashion. Well, if he does win one of the sets in this match by a score of 6-3 or worse, he should cover a 4.5-game spread.
I also try pretty hard not to put too much stock in head-to-heads, but they matter when it’s the type of one-way traffic we have seen in this one. Not only has Sinner won nine matches in a row against Zverev, the Italian has won the last six in straight sets. Also, six of the 12 sets they have played in the last six matches have ended with Sinner winning 6-2 or worse.
Is it impossible Zverev finds a way into this match? Of course not. If he plays a good first set, he’ll only add to his belief and get stronger throughout the final. But more likely than not, this ends with Sinner winning major No. 5. And it likely happens without him breaking much of a sweat.
Bet: Sinner -4.5 Games (-130)
