Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Sunday, July 12 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Strong State (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Strong State
2. Limes Don’t Lie
3. Alyeska
STRONG STATE broke her maiden at Saratoga as a second-time starter as a juvenile, before finishing an underrated fourth in the Spinaway; returned last summer to win her second start off the bench with a new Beyer top; back to make her second start of the form cycle for the third year in a row after losing all chance at the start last time. LIMES DON’T LIE ran a big race to close down stablemate ALYESKA here last summer after a troubled start; bumped into a hot horse when returned from the layoff this year, then had no chance with Grade 1 winner Scottish Lassie dominating on the lead last time; might be set for her best in the third start back. ALYESKA has improved with each start so far for top connections; was only second-best to LIMES DON’T LIE two back, then sat a trip and scored convincingly in her final start before the layoff; talented and tactical, but she gives away recency to her main rivals in this spot.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eight races on Sunday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Parea
2. D I Wire
3. Tinian
PAREA is from the female family of Grade 2-winning juvenile Corfu, as well as Saudi Cup Sprint winner New York Central; the second dam is a sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Peace Rules; looked good breezing 10-flat prior to selling for $140k in April; showed speed in an early work for Maker in Kentucky, and has breezed five furlongs twice since; might be ahead of the game. D I WIRE is by 19% juvenile debut sire Yaupon, from a speedy stakes-winning dam who was an impressive debut winner on this track as a 2yo; in from New Jersey with a couple of bullets showing for a capable first-out trainer. TINIAN impressed in his April sales breeze before selling for $210k; shows only a limited tab up to the debut, though he has gone 47 and change in three of those works.
Second Race
1. Pretty Tapit
2. Malibu Smart
3. Kiamba
PRETTY TAPIT ran the best race of her career when stretched out to this distance by Sharp last month; that was just a maiden race, but she appeared to really appreciate the added ground while traveling strongly throughout, before dominating in the stretch; this will be tougher, but she should be a fair price. MALIBU SMART hasn’t shown the improvement usually expected from horses claimed by this trainer, though she did have a troubled trip when last on turf two back; stretches back out and picks up Irad. KIAMBA holds a class edge on this field as a stakes winner in France; she was also Group 3-placed twice over there going long; has been hard to settle early in both stateside starts so far, including that last one when disappointing at a short price; can do better.
Third Race
1. Bellacose
2. Belle Cherie
3. Vino Frizzante
BELLACOSE flashed speed winning on debut here as a 2yo; returned from a layoff last summer with that speed intact and wired a solid allowance field with a 75 Beyer; clearly has some issues, and has to get seven this time, but she looks like the main speed as she starts back fresh again, this time with some class relief. BELLE CHERIE dropped to win her NY debut over a wet track off a layoff last September; faced a field that was way above average for the level when last seen and settled for a no-threat fourth; fits well here if ready off the bench. VINO FRIZZANTE scored off the claim for Rice earlier this year going this distance; has been up in class since then; logical dropping back down while cutting back to seven.
Fourth Race
1. Liam’s Law
2. Jolley
3. Antonelli
LIAM’S LAW was entered to sprint on debut, where he looked like he might benefit from a start, and then went out and ran pretty well through a bit of trouble in a race he really had no chance to win; bred for this, and Pletcher has good numbers in this situation – MSW, second career start, turf, route, Saratoga: 5 for his last 15, 33%, $2.04 ROI. JOLLEY debuted in the same race as the top one, and he had an even tougher trip in that race after getting bumped hard between horses at the start, before being bothered by a rival that was pulling up out of the race early; colt from the female family of multiple Grade 1-winning turf router Nashoba’s Key rates another chance at a price. ANTONELLI powered through a 10-flat breeze in March before selling for $500k; has sprint on both sides of his pedigree, but debuts around two turns; dangerous if he can get a trip from the outside.
Fifth Race
1. Ilenas Kaz Way
2. Americanexpression
3. Tune Timer
ILENAS KAZ WAY is by young sire Charlatan, who has been getting winners on turf; the dam posted her lone win in a race rained off the turf, but she hit the board in all four starts on the grass, and she has already dropped a pair of foals that could run, including two-time turf winner Chantilly Road; trainer 23%, $2.87 ROI over five years with first-time starters. AMERICANEXPRESSION made her debut on synthetic at Gulfstream, where she chased three-wide and finished gamely for third; drops for the second start. TUNE TIMER powered clear with big early speed and only weakened in the late stages in her turf debut last month going six; dangerous speed right back at the same level.
Seventh Race
1. Silver Knight
2. Five Grand
3. Sweet Redemption
SILVER KNIGHT breezed 10-flat in March when sold for $75k; has continued to train forwardly up to his debut, and he has some pedigree behind him as a son of Mitole, from the female family of top racehorse and sire Distorted Humor. FIVE GRAND is a homebred by 23% juvenile debut sire Vekoma, and a full-brother to Grade 2 winner Five G, who also races for these connections; should be fit for this with nine published breezes showing. SWEET REDEMPTION is by a versatile sire – Twirling Candy wins with 16% of his 2yo firsters – from a dam who won her debut and earned a 91 Beyer top as a dirt sprinter; half-sister With the Angels won the first five starts of his career and is a multiple stakes winner; shows some solid works for an underrated trainer.
Eighth Race
1. Highlands Way
2. High Beta
3. The Paddock Pastor
HIGHLANDS WAY landed in a tough MSW and left from an outside post in the debut last December; returned with some class relief last month, and he looked good running that field over after traveling well from the start; takes the next logical step with plenty of room to improve. HIGH BETA went back-to-back early on for top connections; missed most of his 3yo campaign following that second win at Tampa, and faced a tough rival when having to settle for second when last seen in September; back from another layoff, but this is a better spot, and he is a new gelding for this. THE PADDOCK PASTOR drew poorly on the far outside, but he is just going to drop back and try to make one run from the back; has run well in both starts so far as a 5yo, but he needs some pace.
Ninth Race
1. Boom Shocka Boom
2. Twenty One Red
3. Out of the Fog
BOOM SHOCKA BOOM dueled and tired in a race that went to closers when making his belated debut over a sloppy main track; the dam is a sister to a stakes-winning turf sprinter, and her best foal so far was a two-time turf sprint winner for this trainer. TWENTY ONE RED ran well to be second in his debut here as a 2yo, then ran a very odd race when racing wide and traveling awkwardly when trying stakes company in his second start. He failed to improve as a dirt horse through the winter; was making an early run up the backstretch after a slow start when turned back to sprint last time, but was put over behind horses rather than being allowed to carry on with that move; still finished gamely in that spot; needs a better trip from an outside draw. OUT OF THE FOG endured a troubled trip in his debut last summer, before running better in each of his next two starts; he also tried different surfaces to no avail earlier this year, and he broke very poorly before failing to land a blow in his return to turf; turns back with blinkers on.
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