Mutua Madrid Open Predictions for Thursday, April 24th
The top players in the world are in Madrid for a pair of 1000-level events this week, as it’s time for the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open. I’ll be posting daily articles with my best bets for the action at the Caja Magica, so come back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on some tennis. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription! It’s only $59 to get access to everything until August 1st!
With all of that in mind, check out my Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Thursday, April 24th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Hamad Medjedovic vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Etcheverry is normally a bet-on player during the clay-court season, but he has lost three of his last four matches on the dirt. One of those was a disappointing 6-3, 6-4 loss to Aleksandar Kovacevic in Houston. Etcheverry is now just 7-12 on the season, and it doesn’t look like the clay-court swing is going to help him crawl back to .500. The Argentine’s hold percentage and first-serve in percentage are both way down from last year, and he has never been a great returner. That said, he seems like he is ripe for an early exit in Madrid, and Medjedovic has the ability to put him down.
Medjedovic turned in some nice performances in Barcelona, including a strong effort in a straight-set loss to Casper Ruud. That was a 7-5, 7-5 defeat in which Medjedovic looked like the better player but played key points horribly. Between the ATP and Challenger Tours, the Serbian is now 14-7 since the start of 2025. Medjedovic has always been a highly talented player, but he has been plagued by injuries and overall fitness issues. But he’s starting to put it all together this year, and he’s going to make for a tough matchup for Etcheverry.
Medjedovic is a more dangerous server than Etcheverry, and his break percentage is right on par with the Argentine’s. Medjedovic’s power along the baseline is also a little more controlled than Etcheverry’s. He has effortless power from the back of the court, including a big forehand. I just wouldn’t be surprised if he is able to push Etcheverry around, outlasting the Argentine in what should be a competitive match.
Pick: Medjedovic ML (-150)
Hailey Baptiste vs. Donna Vekic
There isn’t much we’ve seen in 2025 that suggests Baptiste should be an underdog against Vekic. The American is 10-6 since the start of the season, and she has played good tennis against strong opponents. Baptiste has always packed a lot of punch as both a server and a baseliner, and she’s now starting to figure out how to win matches. That’s going to be scary for the rest of the WTA Tour. Meanwhile, Vekic is just 5-10 since the start of the new season, and she hasn’t looked anything like the dynamic player she was in 2024. So, in conditions that suit Baptiste a little better, I’m keeping things simple and backing the American at plus-money odds. At altitude, I think her ability to pummel the ball — especially when it’s time to serve — will be hard for an out-of-form Vekic to overcome.
Pick: Baptiste ML (+133)
Borna Coric vs. Matteo Arnaldi
I think Coric, the former world No. 12, has a real shot at pulling off the win here. Coric has fallen to No. 104 in the rankings due to injuries, but he’s 17-3 at the Challenger level this season with three titles — including one on clay in Zadar. Meanwhile, Arnaldi is just 4-7 on clay over the past year and hasn’t won a match on the surface in 2025, including a loss to 38-year-old Richard Gasquet. Coric’s serve has been a weapon on the Challenger Tour, and the Madrid altitude should allow him to continue holding rather easily. Coric also has the defensive chops and overall balance to hold his own in rallies, and that could expose Arnaldi’s occasional inconsistency from the forehand side. While the market gives Arnaldi a 59% chance to win, that feels off based on current form.
Pick: Coric ML (+140)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
