Hope springs eternal on Day 1 of the MLB playoffs, with nearly 12 straight hours of postseason baseball.
Today’s Wild Card menu, with Game 1 moneyline odds from Circa Sports:
2 p.m. ET — Braves (-187) vs. Phillies (+173)
📺 NBC
5 p.m. ET — Astros (-122) vs. White Sox (+110)
📺 NBCSN
8 p.m. ET — Yankees (-135) vs. Red Sox (+125)
📺 NBC
10 p.m. ET — Padres (-125) vs. Cubs (+112)
📺 NBCSN
Adam Burke sizes up all four Game 1 matchups and has two official plays for opening day.
Steve Makinen found a postseason angle that immediately applies to three teams playing today.
Over the last five postseasons, MLB teams that won fewer than 90 regular-season games are:
49-47 straight up (+13 units, 13.5% ROI)
60-36 on the run line (+13.2 units, 13.8% ROI)
… when they aren’t matched up against another sub-90-win team.
That gives us three qualifiers today:
✅ Phillies (88-74) vs. Braves (94-68)
✅ Red Sox (87-75) vs. Yankees (93-68)
✅ Cubs (89-73) vs. Padres (91-71)
The White Sox (84-78)-Astros (81-81) matchup doesn’t qualify because both teams finished below 90 wins.
I asked Adam if he had any strategies for handicapping the playoffs. He gave me three things to keep in mind:
Momentum swings can be extreme. Know which part of the lineup is coming up, which relievers are likely to enter and how the splits look. Managerial decisions are magnified in the postseason, creating opportunities to improve on a pregame position.
Adam points to research from ESPN’s David Schoenfield showing that the team that hit fewer regular-season home runs has gone just 17-29 in playoff series over the last 10 postseasons, excluding 2020.
And over the last five postseasons, at least 45.4% of all runs scored have come via the home run. Bad pitchers don’t get to play in October. Starters don’t get overextended. Games often come down to mistakes — and whether somebody hits one over the fence.
It’s not just which relievers are available, but how much they’ve pitched and how often opposing hitters have seen them. That becomes increasingly important as a series gets longer.
👉 Adam’s Phillies-Braves Preview →
👉 Adam’s White Sox-Astros Preview →
👉 Adam’s Red Sox-Yankees Preview →
VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis gives the NHL schedule makers an A+ for opening night.
The defending Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes host the Florida Panthers and the Tkachuk brothers at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN.
North of the border, Toronto hosts Montreal in an Original Six matchup. Edmonton gets Vancouver, Pavel Dorofeyev makes his Rangers debut in Boston, and the Vegas Golden Knights host a Blackhawks team that will be without Connor Bedard for at least the first month of the season.
JD will post his opening-night best bets later this morning.
Steve Makinen has already mapped out the situational scheduling spots to watch throughout the entire NHL season.
Baker Mayfield’s dislocated right thumb will sideline him for a minimum of three weeks.
Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will start for the 0-3 Bucs against Green Bay. The Packers have moved from -1.5 on the lookahead to -3.5.
The Giants acquired J.J. McCarthy from the Vikings to add quarterback depth behind Jameis Winston.
The Bears’ Monday night win eliminated the 66 Circa Survivor entries that were riding on Philadelphia, leaving 6,292 of the original 25,017 entries alive.
Twenty-six contestants posted perfect 7-0 cards in Week 3 of the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest.
VSiN Pro subscriber Wayne Whitby topped them all with +146.5 action points to finish first for the week.
EdgeBoost is offering customers a $2,000 bonus with at least a $100 deposit.
