For the third straight week, we’ve gone digging through Steve Makinen’s NFL Preseason Analytics Report looking for our three favorite bets.
Week 1: 3-0.
Week 2: 1-2.
Overall: 4-2.
We’ll take it.
As we’ve done the first two weeks, I’m looking for plays where multiple relevant indicators in Steve’s report point in the same direction — putting the most weight on his ratings models, broader league-wide systems and current betting data.
And, again, I’m largely discounting team-specific preseason trends that can reflect completely different players and coaching staffs.
Here’s what rose to the top for Week 3:
🥇 Chiefs +2.5 vs. Seahawks
All three of Steve’s ratings systems make Kansas City their No. 1 underpriced underdog, showing between 4.3 and 4.7 points of value. The Chiefs also qualify for a broader preseason system in which underdogs of +1 to +3 are 205-135-1 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
🥈 Lions +3.5 at Colts
Detroit ranks among Steve’s top three underpriced underdogs in all three ratings systems, showing between 3.2 and 3.7 points of value. The current betting data also supports Detroit, while Indianapolis qualifies for a system fading home teams coming off double-digit preseason losses.
🥉 Dolphins +3.5 vs. Falcons
Miami ranks No. 2, No. 3 and No. 5 among Steve’s underpriced underdogs across his three ratings systems. There is also support for fading Atlanta after its 34-point offensive performance last week, plus another current betting-splits fade of the Falcons.
There are some conflicting indicators in the report, particularly on Kansas City and Miami. That’s part of the exercise — we’re weighing the evidence, not simply collecting trends that agree with us.
So there you have it: Chiefs +2.5, Lions +3.5 and Dolphins +3.5.
We’re 4-2 through two weeks. Let’s see what Week 3 brings.
Underdogs have been the story of the preseason. So, naturally, Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley is doing just fine.
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We’ve spent most of this week loading up on Week 0 college football information. Now it’s almost time to put it to work.
Adam Burke has his picks. Steve Makinen has released his Week 0 Analytics Report. And everything else we’ve published is collected in one place.
Tomorrow, we’ll do what we’ve been doing with Steve’s NFL preseason data: dig through the numbers and see if we can identify our favorite Week 0 bets.
⛳ Golf: Wes Reynolds is trying to make it 3-for-3 in the FedExCup Playoffs using the “Without Scottie Scheffler” market.
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Wes’ Tour Championship Best Bets →
🏇 Horse Racing: Today’s picks and analysis from Saratoga.
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Today’s Saratoga Picks →
🥊 UFC Shanghai: Set your alarm. The prelims begin at 3 a.m. ET Saturday, and we have Lou Finocchiaro’s picks plus Rob Moreno’s model-based bets.
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UFC Shanghai Picks and Best Bets →
🎯 Tony George Is on a Roll
Doc’s Sports handicapper Tony George has produced +$3,545 in MLB and WNBA props over the last 19 days, while going 4-0 on his selectively released Top Picks.
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